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A new scheduling method based on sequential time windows developed to distribute first-aid medicine for emergency logistics following an earthquake.

ABSTRACT: After an earthquake, affected areas have insufficient medicinal supplies, thereby necessitating substantial distribution of first-aid medicine from other supply centers. To make a proper distribution schedule, we considered the timing of supply and demand. In the present study, a "sequential time window" is used to describe the time to generate of supply and demand and the time of supply delivery. Then, considering the sequential time window, we proposed two multiobjective scheduling models with the consideration of demand uncertainty; two multiobjective stochastic programming models were also proposed to solve the scheduling models. Moreover, this paper describes a simulation that was performed based on a first-aid medicine distribution problem during a Wenchuan earthquake response. The simulation results show that the methodologies proposed in this paper provide effective schedules for the distribution of first-aid medicine. The developed distribution schedule enables some supplies in the former time windows to be used in latter time windows. This schedule increases the utility of limited stocks and avoids the risk that all the supplies are used in the short-term, leaving no supplies for long-term use.

SUBMITTER: Fang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7901742 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new scheduling method based on sequential time windows developed to distribute first-aid medicine for emergency logistics following an earthquake.

Fang Jiaqi J Hou Hanping H Lu Changxiang C Pang Haiyun H Deng Qingshan Q Ye Yong Y Pan Lingle L

PloS one 20210223 2

After an earthquake, affected areas have insufficient medicinal supplies, thereby necessitating substantial distribution of first-aid medicine from other supply centers. To make a proper distribution schedule, we considered the timing of supply and demand. In the present study, a "sequential time window" is used to describe the time to generate of supply and demand and the time of supply delivery. Then, considering the sequential time window, we proposed two multiobjective scheduling models with ...[more]

PMID: 33621257

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Project description:BackgroundPhase III trials often require large sample sizes, leading to high costs and delays in clinical decision-making. Group sequential designs can improve trial efficiency by allowing for early stopping for efficacy and/or futility and thus may decrease the sample size, trial duration and associated costs. Bayesian approaches may offer additional benefits by incorporating previous information into the analyses and using decision criteria that are more practically relevant than those used in frequentist approaches. Frequentist group sequential designs have often been used for phase III studies, but the use of Bayesian group sequential designs is less common. The aim of this work was to explore how Bayesian group sequential designs could be constructed for phase III trials conducted in emergency medicine.MethodsThe PARAMEDIC2 trial was a phase III randomised controlled trial that compared the use of adrenaline to placebo in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients on 30-day survival rates. It used a frequentist group sequential design to allow early stopping for efficacy or harm. We constructed several alternative Bayesian group sequential designs and studied their operating characteristics via simulation. We then virtually re-executed the trial by applying the Bayesian designs to the PARAMEDIC2 data to demonstrate what might have happened if these designs had been used in practice.ResultsWe produced three alternative Bayesian group sequential designs, each of which had greater than?90% power to detect the target treatment effect. A Bayesian design which performed interim analyses every 500 patients recruited produced the lowest average sample size. Using the alternative designs, the PARAMEDIC2 trial could have declared adrenaline superior for 30-day survival with approximately 1500 fewer patients.ConclusionsUsing the PARAMEDIC2 trial as a case study, we demonstrated how Bayesian group sequential designs can be constructed for phase III emergency medicine trials. The Bayesian framework enabled us to obtain efficient designs using decision criteria based on the probability of benefit or harm. It also enabled us to incorporate information from previous studies on the treatment effect via the prior distributions. We recommend the wider use of Bayesian approaches in phase III clinical trials.Trial registrationPARAMEDIC2 Trial registration ISRCTN, ISRCTN73485024. Registered 13 March 2014, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN73485024.

Dataset Information

A new scheduling method based on sequential time windows developed to distribute first-aid medicine for emergency logistics following an earthquake.

Publications

A new scheduling method based on sequential time windows developed to distribute first-aid medicine for emergency logistics following an earthquake.

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