Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Rubin DM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7907159 | biostudies-literature | 2021
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Facilitating Understanding, Modeling and Simulation of Infectious Disease Epidemics in the Age of COVID-19.
Rubin David M DM Achari Shamin S Carlson Craig S CS Letts Robyn F R RFR Pantanowitz Adam A Postema Michiel M Richards Xriz L XL Wigdorowitz Brian B
Frontiers in public health 20210212
Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical models as easy-to-understand stock-flow diagrams. Remarkably, creating stock-flow diagrams is the same process as creating the equivalent differential equations. Yet, its visual nature makes the process ...[more]
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Project description:BACKGROUND:EpiFlex is a flexible, easy to use computer model for a single computer, intended to be operated by one user who need not be an expert. Its purpose is to study in-silico the epidemic behavior of a wide variety of diseases, both known and theoretical, by simulating their spread at the level of individuals contracting and infecting others. To understand the system fully, this paper must be read together in conjunction with study of the software and its results. EpiFlex is evaluated using results from modeling influenza A epidemics and comparing them with a variety of field data sources and other types of modeling. EpiFlex is an object-oriented Monte Carlo system, allocating entities to correspond to individuals, disease vectors, diseases, and the locations that hosts may inhabit. EpiFlex defines eight different contact types available for a disease. Contacts occur inside locations within the model. Populations are composed of demographic groups, each of which has a cycle of movement between locations. Within locations, superspreading is defined by skewing of contact distributions. RESULTS:EpiFlex indicates three phenomena of interest for public health: (1) R0 is variable, and the smaller the population, the larger the infected fraction within that population will be; (2) significant compression/synchronization between cities by a factor of roughly 2 occurs between the early incubation phase of a multi-city epidemic and the major manifestation phase; (3) if better true morbidity data were available, more asymptomatic hosts would be seen to spread disease than we currently believe is the case for influenza. These results suggest that field research to study such phenomena, while expensive, should be worthwhile. CONCLUSION:Since EpiFlex shows all stages of disease progression, detailed insight into the progress of epidemics is possible. EpiFlex shows the characteristic multimodality and apparently random variation characteristic of real world data, but does so as an emergent property of a carefully constructed model of disease dynamics and is not simply a stochastic system. EpiFlex can provide a better understanding of infectious diseases and strategies for response.
| S-EPMC1570461 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this study, we examined various forms of mathematical models that are relevant for the containment, risk analysis, and features of COVID-19. Greater emphasis was laid on the extension of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models for policy relevance in the time of COVID-19. These mathematical models play a significant role in the understanding of COVID-19 transmission mechanisms, structures, and features. Considering that the disease has spread sporadically around the world, causing large scale socioeconomic disruption unwitnessed in contemporary ages since World War II, researchers, stakeholders, government, and the society at large are actively engaged in finding ways to reduce the rate of infection until a cure or vaccination procedure is established. We advanced argument for the various forms of the mathematical model of epidemics and highlighted their relevance in the containment of COVID-19 at the present time. Mathematical models address the need for understanding the transmission dynamics and other significant factors of the disease that would aid policymakers to make accurate decisions and reduce the rate of transmission of the disease.
| S-EPMC7461001 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEffective response to public health emergencies, such as we are now experiencing with COVID-19, requires data sharing across multiple disciplines and data systems. Ontologies offer a powerful data sharing tool, and this holds especially for those ontologies built on the design principles of the Open Biomedical Ontologies Foundry. These principles are exemplified by the Infectious Disease Ontology (IDO), a suite of interoperable ontology modules aiming to provide coverage of all aspects of the infectious disease domain. At its center is IDO Core, a disease- and pathogen-neutral ontology covering just those types of entities and relations that are relevant to infectious diseases generally. IDO Core is extended by disease and pathogen-specific ontology modules.ResultsTo assist the integration and analysis of COVID-19 data, and viral infectious disease data more generally, we have recently developed three new IDO extensions: IDO Virus (VIDO); the Coronavirus Infectious Disease Ontology (CIDO); and an extension of CIDO focusing on COVID-19 (IDO-COVID-19). Reflecting the fact that viruses lack cellular parts, we have introduced into IDO Core the term acellular structure to cover viruses and other acellular entities studied by virologists. We now distinguish between infectious agents - organisms with an infectious disposition - and infectious structures - acellular structures with an infectious disposition. This in turn has led to various updates and refinements of IDO Core's content. We believe that our work on VIDO, CIDO, and IDO-COVID-19 can serve as a model for yielding greater conformance with ontology building best practices.ConclusionsIDO provides a simple recipe for building new pathogen-specific ontologies in a way that allows data about novel diseases to be easily compared, along multiple dimensions, with data represented by existing disease ontologies. The IDO strategy, moreover, supports ontology coordination, providing a powerful method of data integration and sharing that allows physicians, researchers, and public health organizations to respond rapidly and efficiently to current and future public health crises.
| S-EPMC8286442 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose: This study aims to characterize the early innate and adaptive responses induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adults over time up to 8 weeks post symptoms onset (POS). We report the gene signature of COVID-19 over the course of the disease in both age groups. The kinetic of infection was divided in 5-time intervals according to the calculated days POS: interval 1 (0-5), interval 2 (6-14), interval 3 (15-22), interval 4 (23-35), and interval 5 (36-81). Methods: RNA extraction was performed automatically via the PAXgene Blood miRNA Kit and the QIAcube instrument (Qiagen) following the manufacturer’s protocol. RNA concentration and quality were assessed by using the Qubit instrument (Invitrogen) and the Agilent 2100 Bioanalyzer, respectively. The Stranded Total RNA Ribo-Zero Plus kit from Illumina was used for the library preparation with 100 ng of total RNA as input. Library molarity and quality were assessed with the Qubit and Tapestation using a DNA High sensitivity chip (Agilent Technologies). Libraries were pooled at 2 nM for clustering and sequenced on an Illumina HiSeq 4000 sequencer for a minimum of 30 million single-end 100 reads per sample. Main results: (I) we observed an antiviral-IFN-signature and innate-cell-activation within the first 5 days post symptoms onset (POS), while genes associated with CD4 T-cell responses, plasma cells and immunoglobulin were upregulated in both age groups during the first two weeks POS, indicative of SARS-CoV-2-specific adaptive immune responses; (II) in adults, genes associated with IFN antiviral responses and activated dendritic cells were maintained during the second week of disease, and subsided only after 14 days. By contrast, those transcriptome changes subsided already after 5 days in children.
2021-09-22 | GSE166190 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 was first reported in 2019, and the Chinese government immediately carried out stringent and effective control measures in response to the epidemic.ObjectiveNonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have impacted incidences of other infectious diseases as well. Potential explanations underlying this reduction, however, are not clear. Hence, in this study, we aim to study the influence of the COVID-19 prevention policies on other infectious diseases (mainly class B infectious diseases) in China.MethodsTime series data sets between 2017 and 2021 for 23 notifiable infectious diseases were extracted from public data sets from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Several indices (peak and trough amplitudes, infection selectivity, preferred time to outbreak, oscillatory strength) of each infectious disease were calculated before and after the COVID-19 outbreak.ResultsWe found that the prevention and control policies for COVID-19 had a strong, significant reduction effect on outbreaks of other infectious diseases. A clear event-related trough (ERT) was observed after the outbreak of COVID-19 under the strict control policies, and its decreasing amplitude is related to the infection selectivity and preferred outbreak time of the disease before COVID-19. We also calculated the oscillatory strength before and after the COVID-19 outbreak and found that it was significantly stronger before the COVID-19 outbreak and does not correlate with the trough amplitude.ConclusionsOur results directly demonstrate that prevention policies for COVID-19 have immediate additional benefits for controlling most class B infectious diseases, and several factors (infection selectivity, preferred outbreak time) may have contributed to the reduction in outbreaks. This study may guide the implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions to control a wider range of infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC9231598 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7640630 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfectious disease computational modeling studies have been widely published during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, yet they have limited reproducibility. Developed through an iterative testing process with multiple reviewers, the Infectious Disease Modeling Reproducibility Checklist (IDMRC) enumerates the minimal elements necessary to support reproducible infectious disease computational modeling publications. The primary objective of this study was to assess the reliability of the IDMRC and to identify which reproducibility elements were unreported in a sample of COVID-19 computational modeling publications.MethodsFour reviewers used the IDMRC to assess 46 preprint and peer reviewed COVID-19 modeling studies published between March 13th, 2020, and July 30th, 2020. The inter-rater reliability was evaluated by mean percent agreement and Fleiss' kappa coefficients (κ). Papers were ranked based on the average number of reported reproducibility elements, and average proportion of papers that reported each checklist item were tabulated.ResultsQuestions related to the computational environment (mean κ = 0.90, range = 0.90-0.90), analytical software (mean κ = 0.74, range = 0.68-0.82), model description (mean κ = 0.71, range = 0.58-0.84), model implementation (mean κ = 0.68, range = 0.39-0.86), and experimental protocol (mean κ = 0.63, range = 0.58-0.69) had moderate or greater (κ > 0.41) inter-rater reliability. Questions related to data had the lowest values (mean κ = 0.37, range = 0.23-0.59). Reviewers ranked similar papers in the upper and lower quartiles based on the proportion of reproducibility elements each paper reported. While over 70% of the publications provided data used in their models, less than 30% provided the model implementation.ConclusionsThe IDMRC is the first comprehensive, quality-assessed tool for guiding researchers in reporting reproducible infectious disease computational modeling studies. The inter-rater reliability assessment found that most scores were characterized by moderate or greater agreement. These results suggest that the IDMRC might be used to provide reliable assessments of the potential for reproducibility of published infectious disease modeling publications. Results of this evaluation identified opportunities for improvement to the model implementation and data questions that can further improve the reliability of the checklist.
| S-EPMC10612332 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfectious disease computational modeling studies have been widely published during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, yet they have limited reproducibility. Developed through an iterative testing process with multiple reviewers, the Infectious Disease Modeling Reproducibility Checklist (IDMRC) enumerates the minimal elements necessary to support reproducible infectious disease computational modeling publications. The primary objective of this study was to assess the reliability of the IDMRC and to identify which reproducibility elements were unreported in a sample of COVID-19 computational modeling publications.MethodsFour reviewers used the IDMRC to assess 46 preprint and peer reviewed COVID-19 modeling studies published between March 13th, 2020, and July 31st, 2020. The inter-rater reliability was evaluated by mean percent agreement and Fleiss' kappa coefficients (κ). Papers were ranked based on the average number of reported reproducibility elements, and average proportion of papers that reported each checklist item were tabulated.ResultsQuestions related to the computational environment (mean κ = 0.90, range = 0.90-0.90), analytical software (mean κ = 0.74, range = 0.68-0.82), model description (mean κ = 0.71, range = 0.58-0.84), model implementation (mean κ = 0.68, range = 0.39-0.86), and experimental protocol (mean κ = 0.63, range = 0.58-0.69) had moderate or greater (κ > 0.41) inter-rater reliability. Questions related to data had the lowest values (mean κ = 0.37, range = 0.23-0.59). Reviewers ranked similar papers in the upper and lower quartiles based on the proportion of reproducibility elements each paper reported. While over 70% of the publications provided data used in their models, less than 30% provided the model implementation.ConclusionsThe IDMRC is the first comprehensive, quality-assessed tool for guiding researchers in reporting reproducible infectious disease computational modeling studies. The inter-rater reliability assessment found that most scores were characterized by moderate or greater agreement. These results suggests that the IDMRC might be used to provide reliable assessments of the potential for reproducibility of published infectious disease modeling publications. Results of this evaluation identified opportunities for improvement to the model implementation and data questions that can further improve the reliability of the checklist.
| S-EPMC10055605 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Experience has shown that the performance of these models varies; some tend to do better or worse in different seasons or at different points within a season. Ensemble methods combine multiple models to obtain a single prediction that leverages the strengths of each model. We considered a range of ensemble methods that each form a predictive density for a target of interest as a weighted sum of the predictive densities from component models. In the simplest case, equal weight is assigned to each component model; in the most complex case, the weights vary with the region, prediction target, week of the season when the predictions are made, a measure of component model uncertainty, and recent observations of disease incidence. We applied these methods to predict measures of influenza season timing and severity in the United States, both at the national and regional levels, using three component models. We trained the models on retrospective predictions from 14 seasons (1997/1998-2010/2011) and evaluated each model's prospective, out-of-sample performance in the five subsequent influenza seasons. In this test phase, the ensemble methods showed average performance that was similar to the best of the component models, but offered more consistent performance across seasons than the component models. Ensemble methods offer the potential to deliver more reliable predictions to public health decision makers.
| S-EPMC5834190 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.Methods and findingsThe model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.ConclusionsWe present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and demographic models, this model makes it possible to project future age-specific mortality profiles and number of deaths for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.
| S-EPMC4031074 | biostudies-literature