Dataset Information

A geospatiotemporal and causal inference epidemiological exploration of substance and cannabinoid exposure as drivers of rising US pediatric cancer rates.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Age-adjusted US total pediatric cancer incidence rates (TPCIR) rose 49% 1975-2015 for unknown reasons. Prenatal cannabis exposure has been linked with several pediatric cancers which together comprise the majority of pediatric cancer types. We investigated whether cannabis use was related spatiotemporally and causally to TPCIR.

Methods

State-based age-adjusted TPCIR data was taken from the CDC Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results cancer database 2003-2017. Drug exposure was taken from the nationally-representative National Survey of Drug Use and Health, response rate 74.1%. Drugs included were: tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, opioid analgesics and cocaine. This was supplemented by cannabinoid concentration data from the Drug Enforcement Agency and ethnicity and median household income data from US Census.

Results

TPCIR rose while all drug use nationally fell, except for cannabis which rose. TPCIR in the highest cannabis use quintile was greater than in the lowest (?-estimate?=?1.31 (95%C.I. 0.82, 1.80), P?=?1.80?×?10^-?7) and the time:highest two quintiles interaction was significant (?-estimate?=?0.1395 (0.82, 1.80), P?=?1.00?×?10^-?14). In robust inverse probability weighted additive regression models cannabis was independently associated with TPCIR (?-estimate?=?9.55 (3.95, 15.15), P?=?0.0016). In interactive geospatiotemporal models including all drug, ethnic and income variables cannabis use was independently significant (?-estimate?=?45.67 (18.77, 72.56), P?=?0.0009). In geospatial models temporally lagged to 1,2,4 and 6?years interactive terms including cannabis were significant. Cannabis interactive terms at one and two degrees of spatial lagging were significant (from ?-estimate?=?3954.04 (1565.01, 6343.09), P?=?0.0012). The interaction between the cannabinoids THC and cannabigerol was significant at zero, 2 and 6?years lag (from ?-estimate?=?46.22 (30.06, 62.38), P?=?2.10?×?10^-?8). Cannabis legalization was associated with higher TPCIR (?-estimate?=?1.51 (0.68, 2.35), P?=?0.0004) and cannabis-liberal regimes were associated with higher time:TPCIR interaction (?-estimate?=?1.87?×?10^-?4, (2.9?×?10^-?5, 2.45?×?10^-?4), P?=?0.0208). 33/56 minimum e-Values were?>?5 and 6 were infinite.

Conclusion

Data confirm a close relationship across space and lagged time between cannabis and TPCIR which was robust to adjustment, supported by inverse probability weighting procedures and accompanied by high e-Values making confounding unlikely and establishing the causal relationship. Cannabis-liberal jurisdictions were associated with higher rates of TPCIR and a faster rate of TPCIR increase. Data inform the broader general consideration of cannabinoid-induced genotoxicity.

SUBMITTER: Reece AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7908679 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A geospatiotemporal and causal inference epidemiological exploration of substance and cannabinoid exposure as drivers of rising US pediatric cancer rates.

Reece Albert Stuart AS Hulse Gary Kenneth GK

BMC cancer 20210225 1

<h4>Background</h4>Age-adjusted US total pediatric cancer incidence rates (TPCIR) rose 49% 1975-2015 for unknown reasons. Prenatal cannabis exposure has been linked with several pediatric cancers which together comprise the majority of pediatric cancer types. We investigated whether cannabis use was related spatiotemporally and causally to TPCIR.<h4>Methods</h4>State-based age-adjusted TPCIR data was taken from the CDC Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results cancer database 2003-2017. Drug ex ...[more]

PMID: 33632159

Similar Datasets

Project description:As prenatal and community cannabis exposures have recently been linked with congenital heart disease (CHD), it was of interest to explore these associations in Europe in a causal framework and space-time context. Congenital anomaly data from Eurocat, drug-use data from the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction, and income from the World Bank. Countries with rising daily cannabis use had in general higher congenital anomaly rates over time than those without (time: status interaction: β-Est. = 0.0267, P = 0.0059). At inverse probability-weighted panel regression, cannabis terms were positive and significant for CHD, severe CHD, atrial septal defect, ventricular septal defect, atrioventricular septal defect, patent ductus arteriosus, tetralogy of Fallot, vascular disruptions, double outlet right ventricle, transposition of the great vessels, hypoplastic right heart, and mitral valve anomalies from 1.75 × 10-19, 4.20 × 10-11, <2.2 × 10-16, <2.2 × 10-16, 1.58 × 10-12, 4.30 × 10-9, 4.36 × 10-16, 3.50 × 10-8, 5.35 × 10-12, <2.2 × 10-16, 5.65 × 10-5 and 6.06 × 10-10. At spatial regression, terms including cannabis were positive and significant for this same list of anomalies from 0.0038, 1.05 × 10-10, 0.0215, 8.94 × 10-6, 1.23 × 10-5, 2.05 × 10-5, 1.07 × 10-6, 8.77 × 10-5, 9.11 × 10-6, 0.0001, 3.10 × 10-7 and 2.17 × 10-7. 92.6% and 75.2% of 149 E-value estimates and minimum E-values were in high zone >9; 100.0% and 98.7% >1.25. Data show many congenital cardiac anomalies exhibit strong bivariate relationships with metrics of cannabis exposure. Causal inferential modelling for the twelve anomalies selected demonstrated convincing evidence of robust relationships to cannabis which survived adjustment and fulfilled epidemiological criteria for causal relationships. Space-time regression was similarly confirmatory. Epigenomic pathways constitute viable potential mechanisms. Given exponential genotoxic dose-response effects, careful and astute control of cannabinoid penetration is indicated.

Project description:Introduction. Of the many congenital anomalies (CAs) recently linked with community cannabis exposure, arguably the most concerning are neurological CAs (NCAs). We therefore conducted a detailed study of this in fourteen European nations. Methods. Congenital anomaly data were from Eurocat. Drug exposure data were from European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. Income from World bank. Results. The Netherlands, Spain, France and Bulgaria reported increasing rates of many NCAs. The NCA rate (NCAR) was higher in nations with increasing daily cannabis use when compared to those without (p = 0.0204, minimum E-value (mEV) = 1.35). At bivariate analysis, the mEVs of the following NCAs were significantly cannabis related: severe microcephaly 2.14 × 1013, craniosynostosis 5.27 × 1011, nervous system 4.87 × 1011, eye 2.73 × 107, microphthalmos 4.07 × 106, anencephalus 710.37, hydrocephalus 245.64, spina bifida 14.86 and neural tube defects 13.15. At inverse probability, weighted panel regression terms including cannabis were significantly related to the following series of anomalies: nervous system, anencephalus, severe microcephalus, microphthalmos, neural tube defect and spina bifida from p = 5.09 × 10−8, <2.2 × 10−16, <2.2 × 10−16, 4.84 × 10−11, <2.2 × 10−16 and 9.69 × 10−7. At geospatial regression, this same series of anomalies had terms including cannabis significant from p = 0.0027, 1.53 × 10−7, 3.65 × 10−6, 2.13 × 10−8, 0.0002 and 9.76 × 10−12. 88.0% of 50 E-value estimates and 72.0% of mEVs > 9. This analysis therefore demonstrates both close association of cannabis exposure with multiple NCAs across space-time and also fulfills the quantitative criteria of causal inferential analysis. Conclusions. Nine NCARs on bivariate and six NCARs on multivariable regression were cannabis related and fulfilled quantitative epidemiological criteria for causality and are consistent with other series. Particular concerns relate to exponential dose−response effects demonstrated in the laboratory and epidemiological studies. Great caution with community cannabinoid penetration is warranted. Data indicate that cannabis is a significant environmental teratogen and thus imply that cannabinoids should be regulated similarly to the manner in which all other important genotoxins are carefully controlled by communities for their self-sustaining longevity and the protection of generations yet to come.

Project description:IntroductionSince high rates of congenital anomalies (CAs), including facial CAs (FCAs), causally attributed to antenatal and community cannabis use have been reported in several recent series, it was of interest to examine this subject in detail in Europe.MethodsCA data were taken from the EUROCAT database. Drug exposure data were downloaded from the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA). Income was taken from the World Bank's online sources.ResultsOn the bivariate maps of both orofacial clefts and holoprosencephaly against resin, the Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol concentration rates of both covariates increased together in France, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands. In the bivariate analysis, the anomalies could be ranked by the minimum E-value (mEV) as congenital glaucoma > congenital cataract > choanal atresia > cleft lip ± cleft palate > holoprosencephaly > orofacial clefts > ear, face, and neck anomalies. When nations with increasing daily use were compared to those without, the former had generally higher rates of FCAs (p = 0.0281). In the inverse probability weighted panel regression, the sequence of anomalies-orofacial clefts, anotia, congenital cataract, and holoprosencephaly-had positive and significant cannabis coefficients of p = 2.65 × 10-5, 1.04 × 10-8, 5.88 × 10-16, and 3.21 × 10-13, respectively. In the geospatial regression, the same series of FCAs had positive and significant regression terms for cannabis of p = 8.86 × 10-9, 0.0011, 3.36 × 10-8, and 0.0015, respectively. Some 25/28 (89.3%) E-value estimates and 14/28 (50%) mEVs were >9 (considered to be in the high range), and 100% of both were >1.25 (understood to be in the causal range).ConclusionRising cannabis use is associated with all the FCAs and fulfils the epidemiological criteria for causality. The data indicate particular concerns relating to brain development and exponential genotoxic dose-responses, urging caution with regard to community cannabinoid penetration.

Project description:Whilst cannabis is known to be toxic to brain development, it is unknown if it is driving rising US autism rates (ASMR). A longitudinal epidemiological study was conducted using national autism census data from the US Department of Education Individuals with Disabilities Act (IDEA) 1991-2011 and nationally representative drug exposure (cigarettes, alcohol, analgesic, and cocaine abuse, and cannabis use monthly, daily, and in pregnancy) datasets from National Survey of Drug Use and Health and US Census (income and ethnicity) and CDC Wonder population and birth data. Analysis was conducted in R. 266,950 were autistic of a population of 40,119,464 8-year-olds in 1994-2011. At national level after adjustment, daily cannabis use was significantly related to ASMR (β estimate = 4.37 (95%C.I. 4.06, 4.68), P < 2.2 × 10-16) as was first pregnancy trimester cannabis exposure (β estimate = 0.12 (0.08, 0.16), P = 1.7 × 10-12). At state level following adjustment for cannabis, cannabigerol (from β estimate = - 13.77 (- 19.41, 8.13), P = 1.8 × 10-6) and Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (from β estimate = 1.96 (0.88-3.04), P = 4 × 10-4) were significant. Geospatial state-level modelling showed exponential relationship between ASMR and Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabigerol exposure. Exponential coefficients for the relationship between modelled ASMR and Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabigerol exposure were 7.053 (6.39-7.71) and 185.334 (167.88-202.79; both P < 2.0 × 10-7). E-values are an instrument related to the evidence for causality in observational studies. High E-values were noted. Dichotomized legal status was linked with elevated ASMR. Data show cannabis use is associated with ASMR, is powerful enough to affect overall trends, and persists after controlling for other major covariates. Cannabinoids are exponentially associated with ASMR. The cannabis-autism relationship satisfies criteria of causal inference.

Project description:BackgroundDown syndrome (DS) is the commonest of the congenital genetic defects whose incidence has been rising in recent years for unknown reasons. This study aims to assess the impact of substance and cannabinoid use on the DS Rate (DSR) and assess their possible causal involvement.MethodsAn observational population-based epidemiological study 1986-2016 was performed utilizing geotemporospatial and causal inferential analysis. Participants included all patients diagnosed with DS and reported to state based registries with data obtained from National Birth Defects Prevention Network of Centers for Disease Control. Drug exposure data was from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) a nationally representative sample interviewing 67,000 participants annually. Drug exposures assessed were: cigarette consumption, alcohol abuse, analgesic/opioid abuse, cocaine use and last month cannabis use. Covariates included ethnicity and median household income from US Census Bureau; maternal age of childbearing from CDC births registries; and cannabinoid concentrations from Drug Enforcement Agency.ResultsNSDUH reports 74.1% response rate. Other data was population-wide. DSR was noted to rise over time and with cannabis use and cannabis-use quintile. In the optimal geospatial model lagged to four years terms including Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabigerol were significant (from β-est. = 4189.96 (95%C.I. 1924.74, 6455.17), p = 2.9 × 10-4). Ethnicity, income, and maternal age covariates were not significant. DSR in states where cannabis was not illegal was higher than elsewhere (β-est. = 2.160 (1.5, 2.82), R.R. = 1.81 (1.51, 2.16), p = 4.7 × 10-10). In inverse probability-weighted mixed models terms including cannabinoids were significant (from β-estimate = 18.82 (16.82, 20.82), p < 0.0001). 62 E-value estimates ranged to infinity with median values of 303.98 (IQR 2.50, 2.75 × 107) and 95% lower bounds ranged to 1.1 × 1071 with median values of 10.92 (IQR 1.82, 7990).ConclusionsData show that the association between DSR and substance- and cannabinoid- exposure is robust to multivariable geotemporospatial adjustment, implicate particularly cannabigerol and Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol, and fulfil quantitative epidemiological criteria for causality. Nevertheless, detailed experimental studies would be required to formally demonstrate causality. Cannabis legalization was associated with elevated DSR's at both bivariate and multivariable analysis. Findings are consistent with those from Hawaii, Colorado, Canada, Australia and Europe and concordant with several cellular mechanisms. Given that the cannabis industry is presently in a rapid growth-commercialization phase the present findings linking cannabis use with megabase scale genotoxicity suggest unrecognized DS risk factors, are of public health importance and suggest that re-focussing the cannabis debate on multigenerational health concerns is prudent.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Cardiovascular anomalies are the largest group of congenital anomalies and the major cause of death in young children, with various data linking rising atrial septal defect incidence (ASDI) with prenatal cannabis exposure. Objectives / Hypotheses. Is cannabis associated with ASDI in USA? Is this relationship causal? METHODS:Geospatiotemporal cohort study, 1991-2016. Census populations of adults, babies, congenital anomalies, income and ethnicity. Drug exposure data on cigarettes, alcohol abuse, past month cannabis use, analgesia abuse and cocaine taken from National Survey of Drug Use and Health (78.9% response rate). Cannabinoid concentrations from Drug Enforcement Agency. Inverse probability weighted (ipw) regressions. Analysis conducted in R. RESULTS:ASDI rose nationally three-fold from 27.4 to 82.8 / 10,000 births 1991-2014 during a period when tobacco and alcohol abuse were falling but cannabis was rising. States including Nevada, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee had steeply rising epidemics (Time: Status ?-estimate?=?10.72 (95%C.I. 8.39-13.05), P?<?2.0?×?10 -?16). ASDI was positively related to exposure to cannabis and most cannabinoids. Drug exposure data was near-complete from 2006 thus restricting spatial modelling from 2006 to 2014, N?=?282. In geospatial regression models cannabis: alcohol abuse term was significant (?-estimate?=?19.44 (9.11, 29.77), P?=?2.2?×?10 -?4); no ethnic or income factors survived model reduction. Cannabis legalization was associated with a higher ASDI (Time: Status ?-estimate?=?0.03 (0.01, 0.05), P?=?1.1?×?10 -3). Weighted panel regression interactive terms including cannabis significant (from ?-estimate?=?1418, (1080.6, 1755.4), P?=?7.3?×?10 -15). Robust generalized linear models utilizing inverse probability weighting interactive terms including cannabis appear (from ?-estimate?=?78.88, (64.38, 93.38), P?=?1.1?×?10 -8). Marginal structural models with machine-aided SuperLearning association of ASDI with high v. low cannabis exposure R.R.?=?1.32 (1.28, 1.36). Model e-values mostly >?1.5. CONCLUSIONS:ASDI is associated with cannabis use, frequency, intensity and legalization in a spatiotemporally significant manner, robust to socioeconomicodemographic adjustment and fulfilled causal criteria, consistent with multiple biological mechanisms and similar reports from Hawaii, Colorado, Canada and Australia. Not only are these results of concern in themselves, but they further imply that our list of the congenital teratology of cannabis is as yet incomplete, and highlight in particular cardiovascular toxicology of prenatal cannabinoid and drug exposure.

Project description:BackgroundCannabinoids including cannabidiol have recognized genotoxic activities but their significance has not been studied broadly epidemiologically across the teratological spectrum. We examined these issues including contextual space-time relationships and formal causal inferential analysis in USA.MethodsState congenital anomaly (CA) rate (CAR) data was taken from the annual reports of the National Birth Defects Prevention Network 2001-2005 to 2011-2015. Substance abuse rates were from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the non-institutionalized US population with 74.1% response rate. Drugs examined were cigarettes, monthly and binge alcohol, monthly cannabis and analgesic and cocaine abuse. Early termination of pregnancy for abortion (ETOPFA) rates were taken from the published literature. Cannabinoid concentrations were from Drug Enforcement Agency. Ethnicity and income data were from the US Census Bureau. Inverse probability weighted (IPW) regressions and geotemporospatial regressions conducted for selected CAs.ResultsData on 18,328,529 births from an aggregated population of 2,377,483,589 for mid-year analyses 2005-2013 comprehending 12,611 CARs for 62 CAs was assembled and ETOPFA-corrected (ETOPFACAR) where appropriate. E-Values for ETOPFACARs by substance trends were elevated for THC (40 CAs), cannabis (35 CAs), tobacco (11 CAs), cannabidiol (8 CAs), monthly alcohol (5 CAs) and binge alcohol (2 CAs) with minimum E-Values descending from 16.55, 1.55x107, 555.10, 7.53x1019, 9.30 and 32.98. Cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, chromosomal, limb reductions, urinary, face and body wall CAs particularly affected. Highest v. lowest substance use quintile CAR prevalence ratios 2.84 (95%C.I. 2.44, 3.31), 4.85 (4.08, 5.77) and 1.92 (1.63, 2.27) and attributable fraction in exposed 0.28 (0.27, 0.28), 0.57 (0.51, 0.62) and 0.47 (0.38, 0.55) for tobacco, cannabis and cannabidiol. Small intestinal stenosis or atresia and obstructive genitourinary defect were studied in detail in lagged IPW pseudo-randomized causal regressions and spatiotemporal models confirmed the causal role of cannabinoids. Spatiotemporal predictive modelling demonstrated strongly sigmoidal non-linear cannabidiol dose-response power-function relationships (P = 2.83x10-60 and 1.61x10-71 respectively).ConclusionsData implicate cannabinoids including cannabidiol in a diverse spectrum of heritable CAs. Sigmoidal non-linear dose-response relationships are of grave concern. These transgenerational genotoxic, epigenotoxic, chromosomal-toxic putatively causal teratogenic effects strongly indicate tight restrictions on community cannabinoid penetration.

Project description:BackgroundAcute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL) is the commonest childhood cancer whose incidence is rising in many nations. In the USA, between 1975 and 2016, ALL rates (ALLRs) rose 93.51% from 1.91 to 3.70/100,000 < 20 years. ALL is more common in Caucasian-Americans than amongst minorities. The cause of both the rise and the ethnic differential is unclear, however, prenatal cannabis exposure was previously linked with elevated childhood leukaemia rates. We investigated epidemiologically if cannabis use impacted nationally on ALLRs, its ethnic effects, and if the relationship was causal.MethodsState data on overall, and ethnic ALLR from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results databank of the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) were combined with drug (cigarettes, alcoholism, cannabis, analgesics, cocaine) use data from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health; 74.1% response rate. Income and ethnicity data was from the US Census bureau. Cannabinoid concentration was from the Drug Enforcement Agency Data. Data was analyzed in R by robust and spatiotemporal regression.ResultsIn bivariate analyses a dose-response relationship was demonstrated between ALLR and Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD), cocaine and cannabis exposure, with the effect of cannabis being strongest (β-estimate = 3.33(95%C.I. 1.97, 4.68), P = 1.92 × 10- 6). A strong effect of cannabis use quintile on ALLR was noted (Chi.Sq. = 613.79, P = 3.04 × 10- 70). In inverse probability weighted robust regression adjusted for other substances, income and ethnicity, cannabis was independently significant (β-estimate = 4.75(0.48, 9.02), P = 0.0389). In a spatiotemporal model adjusted for all drugs, income, and ethnicity, cannabigerol exposure was significant (β-estimate = 0.26(0.01, 0.52), P = 0.0444), an effect increased by spatial lagging (THC: β-estimate = 0.47(0.12, 0.82), P = 0.0083). After missing data imputation ethnic cannabis exposure was significant (β-estimate = 0.64(0.55, 0.72), P = 3.1 × 10- 40). 33/35 minimum e-Values ranged from 1.25 to 3.94 × 1036 indicative of a causal relationship. Relaxation of cannabis legal paradigms had higher ALLR (Chi.Squ.Trend = 775.12, P = 2.14 × 10- 112). Cannabis legal states had higher ALLR (2.395 ± 0.039 v. 2.127 ± 0.008 / 100,000, P = 5.05 × 10- 10).ConclusionsData show that ALLR is associated with cannabis consumption across space-time, is associated with the cannabinoids, THC, cannabigerol, cannabinol, cannabichromene, and cannabidiol, contributes to ethnic differentials, demonstrates prominent quintile effects, satisfies criteria for causality and is exacerbated by cannabis legalization.

Dataset Information

A geospatiotemporal and causal inference epidemiological exploration of substance and cannabinoid exposure as drivers of rising US pediatric cancer rates.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A geospatiotemporal and causal inference epidemiological exploration of substance and cannabinoid exposure as drivers of rising US pediatric cancer rates.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets