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Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony.

ABSTRACT: During sporogony, malaria-causing parasites infect a mosquito, reproduce and migrate to the mosquito salivary glands where they can be transmitted the next time blood feeding occurs. The time required for sporogony, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), is an important determinant of malaria transmission intensity. The EIP is typically estimated as the time for a given percentile, x, of infected mosquitoes to develop salivary gland sporozoites (the infectious parasite life stage), which is denoted by EIPx. Many mechanisms, however, affect the observed sporozoite prevalence including the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and possibly differences in mosquito mortality according to infection status. To account for these various mechanisms, we present a mechanistic mathematical model, which explicitly models key processes at the parasite, mosquito and observational scales. Fitting this model to experimental data, we find greater variation in the EIP than previously thought: we estimated the range between EIP10 and EIP90 (at 27°C) as 4.5 days compared to 0.9 days using existing statistical methods. This pattern holds over the range of study temperatures included in the dataset. Increasing temperature from 21°C to 34°C decreased the EIP50 from 16.1 to 8.8 days. Our work highlights the importance of mechanistic modelling of sporogony to (1) improve estimates of malaria transmission under different environmental conditions or disease control programs and (2) evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito life stages of the parasite.

SUBMITTER: Stopard IJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7909686 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In the fight against malaria, transmission blocking interventions (TBIs) such as transmission blocking vaccines or drugs, are promising approaches to complement conventional tools. They aim to prevent the infection of vectors and thereby reduce the subsequent exposure of a human population to infectious mosquitoes. The effectiveness of these approaches has been shown to depend on the initial intensity of infection in mosquitoes, often measured as the mean number of oocysts resulting from an infectious blood meal in absence of intervention. In mosquitoes exposed to a high intensity of infection, current TBI candidates are expected to be ineffective at completely blocking infection but will decrease parasite load and therefore, potentially also affect key parameters of vector transmission. The present study investigated the consequences of changes in oocyst intensity on subsequent parasite development and mosquito survival. To address this, we experimentally produced different intensities of infection for Anopheles gambiae females from Burkina Faso by diluting gametocytes from three natural Plasmodium falciparum local isolates and used a newly developed non-destructive method based on the exploitation of mosquito sugar feeding to track parasite and mosquito life history traits throughout sporogonic development. Our results indicate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of P. falciparum and mosquito survival did not vary with parasite density but differed significantly between parasite isolates with estimated EIP50 of 16 (95% CI: 15-18), 14 (95% CI: 12-16) and 12 (95% CI: 12-13) days and median longevity of 25 (95% CI: 22-29), 15 (95% CI: 13-15) and 18 (95% CI: 17-19) days for the three isolates respectively. Our results here do not identify unintended consequences of the decrease of parasite loads in mosquitoes on the parasite incubation period or on mosquito survival, two key parameters of vectorial capacity, and hence support the use of transmission blocking strategies to control malaria.

Project description:Since Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global human health threat, numerous studies have pointed to Aedes aegypti as the primary vector due to its high competence and propensity to feed on humans. The majority of vector competence studies have been conducted between 26-28°C, but arboviral extrinsic incubation periods (EIPs), and therefore transmission efficiency, are known to be affected strongly by temperature. To better understand the relationship between ZIKV EIPs and temperature, we evaluated the effect of adult mosquito exposure temperature on ZIKV infection, dissemination, and transmission in Ae. aegypti at four temperatures: 18°C, 21°C, 26°C, and 30°C. Mosquitoes were exposed to viremic mice infected with a 2015 Puerto Rican ZIKV strain, and engorged mosquitoes were sorted into the four temperatures with 80% RH and constant access to 10% sucrose. ZIKV infection, dissemination, and transmission rates were assessed via RT-qPCR from individual mosquito bodies, legs and wings, and saliva, respectively, at three to five time points per temperature from three to 31 days, based on expectations from other flavivirus EIPs. The median time from ZIKV ingestion to transmission (median EIP, EIP50) at each temperature was estimated by fitting a generalized linear mixed model for each temperature. EIP50 ranged from 5.1 days at 30°C to 24.2 days at 21°C. At 26°C, EIP50 was 9.6 days. At 18°C, only 15% transmitted by day 31 so EIP50 could not be estimated. This is among the first studies to characterize the effects of temperature on ZIKV EIP in Ae. aegypti, and the first to do so based on feeding of mosquitoes on a live, viremic host. This information is critical for modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics to understand geographic and seasonal limits of ZIKV risk; it is especially relevant for determining risk in subtropical regions with established Ae. aegypti populations and relatively high rates of return travel from the tropics (e.g. California or Florida), as these regions typically experience cooler temperature ranges than tropical regions.

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Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony.

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