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Can particulate matter be identified as the primary cause of the rapid spread of CoViD-19 in some areas of Northern Italy?

ABSTRACT: Northern Italy was the most affected by CoViD-19 compared to other Italian areas and comprises zones where air pollutants concentration was higher than in the rest of Italy. The aim of the research is to determine if particulate matter (PM) has been the primary cause of the high CoViD-19 spread rapidity in some areas of Northern Italy. Data of PM for all the 41 studied cities were collected from the local environmental protection agencies. To compare air quality data with epidemiological data, a statistical analysis was conducted identifying the correlation matrices of Pearson and Spearman, considering also the possible incubation period of the disease. Moreover, a model for the evaluation of the epidemic risk, already proposed in literature, was used to evaluate a possible influence of PM on CoViD-19 spread rapidity. The results exclude that PM alone was the primary cause of the high CoVid-19 spread rapidity in some areas of Northern Italy. Further developments are necessary for a better comprehension of the influence of atmospheric pollution parameters on the rapidity of spread of the virus SARS-CoV-2, since a synergistic action with other factors (such as meteorological, socio-economic and cultural factors) could not be excluded by the present study.

SUBMITTER: Collivignarelli MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7909738 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:A number of studies have shown that the airborne transmission route could spread some viruses over a distance of 2 meters from an infected person. An epidemic model based only on respiratory droplets and close contact could not fully explain the regional differences in the spread of COVID-19 in Italy. On March 16th 2020, we presented a position paper proposing a research hypothesis concerning the association between higher mortality rates due to COVID-19 observed in Northern Italy and average concentrations of PM10 exceeding a daily limit of 50?µg/m3. METHODS:To monitor the spreading of COVID-19 in Italy from February 24th to March 13th (the date of the Italian lockdown), official daily data for PM10 levels were collected from all Italian provinces between February 9th and February 29th, taking into account the maximum lag period (14 days) between the infection and diagnosis. In addition to the number of exceedances of the daily limit value of PM10, we also considered population data and daily travelling information for each province. RESULTS:Exceedance of the daily limit value of PM10 appears to be a significant predictor of infection in univariate analyses (p<0.001). Less polluted provinces had a median of 0.03 infections over 1000 residents, while the most polluted provinces showed a median of 0.26 cases. Thirty-nine out of 41 Northern Italian provinces resulted in the category with the highest PM10 levels, while 62 out of 66 Southern provinces presented low PM10 concentrations (p<0.001). In Milan, the average growth rate before the lockdown was significantly higher than in Rome (0.34 vs 0.27 per day, with a doubling time of 2.0 days vs 2.6, respectively), thus suggesting a basic reproductive number R0>6.0, comparable with the highest values estimated for China. CONCLUSION:A significant association has been found between the geographical distribution of daily PM10 exceedances and the initial spreading of COVID-19 in the 110 Italian provinces.

Project description:Nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx) and ammonia (NH3) are among the main contributors to the formation of secondary particulate matter (PM2.5), which represent a severe risk to human health. Even if important improvements have been achieved worldwide, traffic, industrial activities, and the energy sector are mostly responsible for NOx and SOx release; instead, the agricultural sector is mainly responsible for NH3 emissions. Due to the emergency of coronavirus disease, in Italy schools and universities have been locked down from late February 2020, followed in March by almost all production and industrial activities as well as road transport, except for the agricultural ones. This study aims to analyze NH3, PM2.5 and NOx emissions in principal livestock provinces in the Lombardy region (Brescia, Cremona, Lodi, and Mantua) to evaluate if and how air emissions have changed during this quarantine period respect to 2016-2019. For each province, meteorological and air quality data were collected from the database of the Regional Agency for the Protection of the Environment, considering both data stations located in the city and the countryside. In the 2020 selected period, PM2.5 reduction was higher compared to the previous years, especially in February and March. Respect to February, PM2.5 released in March in the city stations reduced by 19%-32% in 2016-2019 and by 21%-41% in 2020. Similarly, NOx data of 2020 were lower than in the 2016-2019 period (reduction in March respect to February of 22-42% for 2016-2019 and of 43-62% for 2020); in particular, this can be observed in city stations, because of the current reduction in anthropogenic emissions related to traffic and industrial activities. A different trend with no reductions was observed for NH3 emissions, as agricultural activities have not stopped during the lockdown. Air quality is affected by many variables, for which making conclusions requires a holistic perspective. Therefore, all sectors must play a role to contribute to the reduction of harmful pollutants.

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Can particulate matter be identified as the primary cause of the rapid spread of CoViD-19 in some areas of Northern Italy?

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