Dataset Information

Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?

ABSTRACT: Ongoing global change and its direct environmental impacts, in addition to securing economic transition to the post-oil era, could trigger complex socio-economic and political crises in oil-dependent economies of the Persian Gulf Region (PGR). To evaluate the role of climate change and related policies in degrading the environment and its socio-economic impacts in the PGR, we have used a variety of available global datasets and published data. The results show that the countries of the PGR pursue some types of socio-economic reforms to alleviate the impacts of climate change. However, it seems that these attempts are not compatible with the environment's capacity. The main problem stems from the fact that political differences between the PGR nations prevent them from managing the Persian Gulf environment as an integrated natural system and consequently they have to limit their efforts within their borders, regardless of what happens in other parts of the system. The shift to alternative revenue sources by the countries needs socioeconomic preparedness while there are environmental obstacles, political tensions and geopolitical rivalries. Unless there is a cooperative approach to mitigate the effects of climate change, accompanied by a reorientation of PGR economies, the situation is likely to worsen rather than improve. To address the challenges of climate change, integrated regional collaborations are needed. Collective action, such as more investment in regional research and development and education, is required if the PGR is to successfully transition from a commodity-based to a knowledge-based economy.

SUBMITTER: Naderi Beni A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7910506 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?

Naderi Beni Abdolmajid A Marriner Nick N Sharifi Arash A Azizpour Jafar J Kabiri Keivan K Djamali Morteza M Kirman Alan A

Heliyon 20210224 2

Ongoing global change and its direct environmental impacts, in addition to securing economic transition to the post-oil era, could trigger complex socio-economic and political crises in oil-dependent economies of the Persian Gulf Region (PGR). To evaluate the role of climate change and related policies in degrading the environment and its socio-economic impacts in the PGR, we have used a variety of available global datasets and published data. The results show that the countries of the PGR pursu ...[more]

PMID: 33681498

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Project description:Members of societies involved in an intractable conflict usually consider costs that stem from the continuation of the conflict as unavoidable and even justify for their collective existence. This perception is well-anchored in widely shared conflict-supporting narratives that motivate them to avoid information that challenges their views about the conflict. However, since providing information about such major costs as a method for moderating conflict-related views has not been receiving much attention, in this research, we explore this venue. We examine what kind of costs, and under what conditions, exposure to major costs of a conflict affects openness to information and conciliatory attitudes among Israeli Jews in the context of the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Study 1 (N = 255) revealed that interventions based on messages providing information on mental health cost, economic cost, and cost of the conflict to Israeli democracy had (almost) no significant effect on perceptions of the participants of these prices, openness to new information about the conflict, or support for conciliatory policies. However, the existing perceptions that participants had about the cost of the conflict to Israeli democracy were positively associated with openness to alternative information about the conflict and support for conciliatory policies. Therefore, in Study 2 (N = 255), we tested whether providing information about future potential costs to the two fundamental characteristics of Israel, a democracy or a Jewish state, created by the continuation of the conflict, will induce attitude change regarding the conflict. The results indicate that information on the future cost to the democratic identity of Israel significantly affected the attitude of the participants regarding the conflict, while the effect was moderated by the level of religiosity. For secular participants, this manipulation created more openness to alternative information about the conflict and increased support for conciliatory policies, but for religious participants, it backfired. We discuss implications for the role of information about losses and the relationship between religiosity and attitudes regarding democracy and conflict.

Project description:BackgroundGlobally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans.ObjectivesWe produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe.MethodsA process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios.ResultsOur primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results.ConclusionsOur quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

Dataset Information

Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?

Publications

Climate change: A driver of future conflicts in the Persian Gulf Region?

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