Dataset Information

Modeling Intervention Scenarios During Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Within U.S. Beef Feedlots.

ABSTRACT: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock and has severely affected livestock industries during the past two decades in previously FMD-free countries. The disease was eliminated in North America in 1953 but remains a threat for re-introduction. Approximately 44% of the on-feed beef cattle in the U.S. are concentrated in feedlots <32,000 heads, but little information is available on dynamics of FMD in large feedlots. Therefore, there is a need to explore possible management and intervention strategies that might be implemented during potential FMD outbreaks on feedlots. We used a within home-pen stochastic susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered (SLIR) FMD dynamics model nested in a meta-population model of home-pens in a feedlot. The combinatory model was previously developed to simulate foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDv) transmission within U.S. beef feedlots. We evaluated three intervention strategies initiated on the day of FMD detection: stopping movements of cattle between home-pens and hospital-pen(s) (NH), barrier depopulation combined with NH (NH-BD), and targeted depopulation of at-risk home-pens combined with NH (NH-TD). Depopulation rates investigated ranged from 500 to 4,000 cattle per day. We evaluated the projected effectiveness of interventions by comparing them with the no-intervention FMD dynamics in the feedlot. We modeled a small-size (4,000 cattle), medium-size (12,000 cattle), and large-size (24,000 cattle) feedlots. Implementation of NH delayed the outbreak progression, but it did not prevent infection of the entire feedlot. Implementation of NH-BD resulted in depopulation of 50% of cattle in small- and medium-size feedlots, and 25% in large-size feedlots, but the intervention prevented infection of the entire feedlot in 40% of simulated outbreaks in medium-size feedlots, and in 8% in large-size feedlots. Implementation of NH-TD resulted in depopulation of up to 50% of cattle in small-size feedlots, 75% in medium-size feedlots, and 25% in large-size feedlots, but rarely prevented infection of the entire feedlot. Number of hospital-pens in the feedlot was shown to weakly impact the success of NH-TD. Overall, the results suggest that stopping cattle movements between the home-pens and hospital-pens, without or with barrier or targeted cattle depopulation, would not be highly effective to interrupt FMDv transmission within a feedlot.

SUBMITTER: Cabezas AH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7921729 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling Intervention Scenarios During Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Within U.S. Beef Feedlots.

Cabezas Aurelio H AH Sanderson Michael W MW Volkova Victoriya V VV

Frontiers in veterinary science 20210216

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock and has severely affected livestock industries during the past two decades in previously FMD-free countries. The disease was eliminated in North America in 1953 but remains a threat for re-introduction. Approximately 44% of the on-feed beef cattle in the U.S. are concentrated in feedlots <32,000 heads, but little information is available on dynamics of FMD in large feedlots. Therefore, there is a need to explore possible ma ...[more]

PMID: 33665214

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Project description:Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not been reported in the U.S. since 1929. Recent outbreaks in previously FMD-free countries raise concerns about potential FMD introductions in the U.S. Mathematical modeling is the only tool for simulating infectious disease outbreaks in non-endemic territories. In the majority of prior studies, FMD virus (FMDv) transmission on-farm was modeled assuming homogenous animal mixing. This assumption is implausible for U.S. beef feedlots which are divided into multiple home-pens without contact between home-pens except fence line with contiguous home-pens and limited mixing in hospital pens. To project FMDv transmission and clinical manifestation in a feedlot, we developed a meta-population stochastic model reflecting the contact structure. Within a home-pen, the dynamics were represented assuming homogenous animal mixing by a modified SLIR (susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered) model with four additional compartments tracing cattle with subclinical or clinical FMD and infectious status. Virus transmission among home-pens occurred via cattle mixing in hospital-pen(s), cowboy pen rider movements between home-pens, airborne, and for contiguous home-pens fence-line and via shared water-troughs. We modeled feedlots with a one-time capacity of 4,000 (small), 12,000 (medium), and 24,000 (large) cattle. Common cattle demographics, feedlot layout, endemic infectious and non-infectious disease occurrence, and production management were reflected. Projected FMD-outbreak duration on a feedlot ranged from 49 to 82 days. Outbreak peak day (with maximum number of FMD clinical cattle) ranged from 24 (small) to 49 (large feedlot). Detection day was 4-12 post-FMD-introduction with projected 28, 9, or 4% of cattle already infected in a small, medium, or large feedlot, respectively. Depletion of susceptible cattle in a feedlot occurred by day 23-51 post-FMD-introduction. Parameter-value sensitivity analyses were performed for model outputs. Detection occurred sooner if there was a higher initial proportion of latent animals in the index home-pen. Shorter outbreaks were associated with a shorter latent period and higher bovine respiratory disease morbidity (impacting the in-hospital-pen cattle mixing occurrence). This first model of potential FMD dynamics on U.S. beef feedlots shows the importance of capturing within-feedlot cattle contact structure for projecting infectious disease dynamics. Our model provides a tool for evaluating FMD outbreak control strategies.

Project description:Predictive models have been used extensively to assess the likely effectiveness of vaccination policies as part of control measures in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. However, the availability of vaccine stocks and the impact of vaccine availability on disease control strategies represent a key uncertainty when assessing potential control strategies. Using an epidemiological, spatially explicit, simulation model in combination with a direct cost calculator, we assessed how vaccine availability constraints may affect the economic benefit of a "vaccination-to-live" strategy during a FMD outbreak in Scotland, when implemented alongside culling of infected premises and dangerous contacts. We investigated the impact of vaccine stock size and restocking delays on epidemiological and economic outcomes. We also assessed delays in the initial decision to vaccinate, maximum daily vaccination capacity, and vaccine efficacy. For scenarios with conditions conducive to large outbreaks, all vaccination strategies perform better than the strategy where only culling is implemented. A stock of 200,000 doses, enough to vaccinate 12% of the Scottish cattle population, would be sufficient to maximize the relative benefits of vaccination, both epidemiologically and economically. However, this generates a wider variation in economic cost than if vaccination is not implemented, making outcomes harder to predict. The probability of direct costs exceeding £500 million is reduced when vaccination is used and is steadily reduced further as the size of initial vaccine stock increases. If only a suboptimal quantity of vaccine doses is initially available (100,000 doses), restocking delays of more than 2 weeks rapidly increase the cost of controlling outbreaks. Impacts of low vaccine availability or restocking delays are particularly aggravated by delays in the initial decision to vaccinate, or low vaccine efficacy. Our findings confirm that implementing an emergency vaccination-to-live strategy in addition to the conventional stamping out strategy is economically beneficial in scenarios with conditions conducive to large FMD outbreaks in Scotland. However, the size of the initial vaccine stock available at the start of the outbreak and the interplay with other factors, such as vaccine efficacy and delays in restocking or implementing vaccination, should be considered in making decisions about optimal control strategies for FMD outbreaks.

Project description:The accurate quantification of antimicrobial use (AMU) in production animals is critical for monitoring trends in exposure to antimicrobial drugs (AMD) over time and examining potential associations with antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. In this study, a census sample of cattle was used to quantify individually-dosed and in-feed AMU as both numbers of animal daily doses (nADD) and total grams of AMD (gAMD) used in cattle placed in 36 western Canadian feedlots between 1-November, 2008 and 31-October, 2012; representing about 21.5% of fed cattle in Canada during that time period. Of the ~2.6 million cattle placed during the 48-month period, 45% were calves, 63% were male, 62% arrived in the fall or winter, and 39% were assessed as high risk for developing bovine respiratory disease (BRD). The proportion of cattle categorized as high risk (HR) for developing BRD was consistent over the 4 years of placement cohorts. Both medically important AMU and ionophore use were summarized but presented separately. A decrease in AMU was observed over the study period, both as nADD and total gAMD, which was primarily driven by a decline in the in-feed administration of tetracyclines. Most in-feed AMU was directed toward prevention and control of liver abscesses. The majority of individually dosed AMU was administered as metaphylaxis to address BRD risks, with category III AMD (medium importance to human medicine as categorized by Health Canada Veterinary Drugs Directorate) used most frequently. Not surprisingly, risk level for developing BRD influenced parenteral AMD exposures, with 95% of cattle categorized as being HR for developing BRD receiving individually dosed AMD compared to 59% of cattle categorized as being low risk (LR) for developing BRD. Cattle categorized as HR for developing BRD were more likely to receive macrolides for BRD metaphylaxis compared to cattle categorized as LR for developing BRD, and cattle categorized as LR for developing BRD were more likely to receive tetracycline for the same purpose. In summary, these data provide an unprecedented representation of AMU in fed cattle in western Canada and direction for future monitoring of AMU in fed cattle.

Dataset Information

Modeling Intervention Scenarios During Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Within U.S. Beef Feedlots.

Publications

Modeling Intervention Scenarios During Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Within U.S. Beef Feedlots.

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