Dataset Information

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Data on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.

Methods and findings

We used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in all ages, with the exclusion of infants aged <1 month. We created a composite (synthetic) control using Bayesian variable selection of nondiarrheal, nonpneumonia, and nonpneumococcal deaths to estimate the number of expected all-cause pneumonia deaths in the absence of PCV introduction post 2009. We compared all-cause pneumonia deaths from the death registry to the expected deaths in 2012 to 2016. We also estimated the number of prevented deaths during 2009 to 2016. Of the 9,324,638 deaths reported in South Africa from 1999 to 2016, 12·6% were pneumonia-related. Compared to number of deaths expected, we estimated a 33% (95% credible interval (CrI) 26% to 43%), 23% (95%CrI 17% to 29%), 25% (95%CrI 19% to 32%), and 23% (95%CrI 11% to 32%) reduction in pneumonia mortality in children aged 1 to 11 months, 1 to 4 years, 5 to 7 years, and 8 to 18 years in 2012 to 2016, respectively. In total, an estimated 18,422 (95%CrI 12,388 to 26,978) pneumonia-related deaths were prevented from 2009 to 2016 in children aged <19 years. No declines were estimated observed among adults following PCV introduction. This study was mainly limited by coding errors in original data that could have led to a lower impact estimate, and unmeasured factors could also have confounded estimates.

Conclusions

This study found that the introduction of PCV was associated with substantial reduction in all-cause pneumonia deaths in children aged 1 month to <19 years. The model predicted an effect of PCV in age groups who were eligible for vaccination (1 months to 4 years), and an indirect effect in those too old (8 to 18 years) to be vaccinated. These findings support sustaining pneumococcal vaccination to reduce pneumonia-related mortality in children.

SUBMITTER: Kleynhans J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7924778 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study.

Kleynhans Jackie J Tempia Stefano S Shioda Kayoko K von Gottberg Anne A Weinberger Daniel M DM Cohen Cheryl C

PLoS medicine 20210216 2

<h4>Background</h4>Data on the national-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on mortality are lacking from Africa. PCV was introduced in South Africa in 2009. We estimated the impact of PCV introduction on all-cause pneumonia mortality in South Africa, while controlling for changes in mortality due to other interventions.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>We used national death registration data in South Africa from 1999 to 2016 to assess the impact of PCV introduction on ...[more]

PMID: 33591995

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Project description:Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of severe bacterial infections globally. A full understanding of the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on pneumococcal disease burden, following its introduction in 2009 in South Africa, can support national policy on PCV use and assist with policy decisions elsewhere.We developed a model to estimate the national burden of severe pneumococcal disease, i.e. disease requiring hospitalisation, pre- (2005-2008) and post-PCV introduction (2012-2013) in children aged 0-59 months in South Africa. We estimated case numbers for invasive pneumococcal disease using data from the national laboratory-based surveillance, adjusted for specimen-taking practices. We estimated non-bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia case numbers using vaccine probe study data. To estimate pneumococcal deaths, we applied observed case fatality ratios to estimated case numbers. Estimates were stratified by HIV status to account for the impact of PCV and HIV-related interventions. We assessed how different assumptions affected estimates using a sensitivity analysis. Bootstrapping created confidence intervals.In the pre-vaccine era, a total of approximately 107,600 (95% confidence interval [CI] 83,000-140,000) cases of severe hospitalised pneumococcal disease were estimated to have occurred annually. Following PCV introduction and the improvement in HIV interventions, 41,800 (95% CI 28,000-50,000) severe pneumococcal disease cases were estimated in 2012-2013, a rate reduction of 1,277 cases per 100,000 child-years. Approximately 5000 (95% CI 3000-6000) pneumococcal-related annual deaths were estimated in the pre-vaccine period and 1,900 (95% CI 1000-2500) in 2012-2013, a mortality rate difference of 61 per 100,000 child-years.While a large number of hospitalisations and deaths due to pneumococcal disease still occur among children 0-59 months in South Africa, we found a large reduction in this estimate that is temporally associated with PCV introduction. In HIV-infected individuals the scale-up of other interventions, such as improvements in HIV care, may have also contributed to the declines in pneumococcal burden.

Project description:Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant's age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9-80.5%) than older children (5-17 years-old) (31.7-50.0%) or adults (11.5-23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7-15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91-1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2-12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6-6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507-714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1-435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Africa harbours a high burden of pneumococcal disease, with associated high mortality rates. Despite 34 countries introducing the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, which reduces the risk of pneumococcal carriage (a prerequisite for disease) of some of the most pathogenic pneumococcal serotypes, it remains uncertain whether they will achieve the sustained direct or indirect protection necessary to reduce pneumococcal carriage to levels sufficient to interrupt transmission and disease. We will therefore summarise the available data on the impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in reducing vaccine serotype carriage and pneumococcal pneumonia in Africa between 2000 and 2019. METHODS AND ANALYSIS:Using a predetermined search strategy, we will conduct a comprehensive search of PubMed, MEDLINE database, the Excerpta Medica Database, the ISI Web of Science (Science Citation Index), Scopus and the African Index Medicus to identify published studies reporting the prevalence of Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage (vaccine type and non-vaccine type), incidence rates of pneumococcal pneumonia and mortality among children, adults and HIV-infected (all-ages) pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and post-PCV introduction (published between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2019) in African countries that have introduced PCVs (PCV7/PCV10/PCV13) in their routine national immunisation programme. The studies retained and data extracted will be assessed for bias using prevalidated tools and checklists. Heterogeneity across studies will be assessed using the ?2 test on Cochrane Q statistic. A random effect meta-analysis will be used to estimate the overall prevalence of pneumococcal carriage and incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia across studies with similar characteristics. Results will be reported in compliance with the Meta-Analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines. The protocol has been prepared in accordance to the 2015 guidelines on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:This systematic review will not require ethical approval as we will be using already published data. The final manuscript will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42019130976.

Project description:The use of molecular diagnostic techniques for the evaluation of the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has not been documented. We aimed to evaluate the impact of PCVs on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based techniques and compare with results obtained from culture-based methods.We implemented two independent surveillance programs for IPD among individuals hospitalized at one large surveillance site in Soweto, South Africa during 2009-2012: (i) PCR-based (targeting the lytA gene) syndromic pneumonia surveillance; and (ii) culture-based laboratory surveillance. Positive samples were serotyped. The molecular serotyping assay included targets for 42 serotypes including all serotypes/serogroups included in the 7-valent (PCV-7) and 13-valent (PCV-13) PCV. The Quellung reaction was used for serotyping of culture-positive cases. We calculated the change in rates of IPD (lytA- or culture-positive) among HIV-uninfected children aged <2 years from the year of PCV-7 introduction (2009) to the post-vaccine years (2011 or 2012).During the study period there were 607 lytA-positive and 1,197 culture-positive cases that were serotyped. Samples with lytA cycle threshold (Ct)-values ?35 (30.2 %; 123/407) were significantly less likely to have a serotype/serogroup detected for serotypes included in the molecular serotyping assay than those with Ct-values <35 (78.0 %; 156/200) (p < 0.001). From 2009 to 2012 rates of PCV-7 serotypes/serogroups decreased -63.8 % (95 % CI: -79.3 % to -39.1 %) among lytA-positive cases and -91.7 % (95 % CI: -98.8 % to -73.6 %) among culture-positive cases. Rates of lytA-positive non-vaccine serotypes/serogroups also significantly decreased (-71.7 %; 95 % CI: -81.1 % to -58.5 %) over the same period. Such decline was not observed among the culture-positive non-vaccine serotypes (1.2 %; 95 % CI: -96.7 % to 58.4 %).Significant downward trends in IPD PCV-7 serotype-associated rates were observed among patients tested by PCR or culture methods; however trends of non-vaccine serotypes/serogroups differed between the two groups. Misclassifications of serotypes/serogroups, affecting the use of non-vaccine serotypes as a control group, may have occurred due to the low performance of the serotyping assay among lytA-positive cases with high Ct-values. Until PCR methods improve further, culture methods should continue to be used to monitor the effects of PCV vaccination programs on IPD incidence.

Dataset Information

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Estimated impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumonia mortality in South Africa, 1999 through 2016: An ecological modelling study.

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