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ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures.

ABSTRACT: EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

SUBMITTER: European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7926520 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Two groups with three wild boars each were used: Group A (animals 1 to 3) served as the control, and Group B (animals 4 to 6) was postnatally persistently infected with the Cat01 strain of CSFV (primary virus). The animals, six weeks old and clinically healthy, were inoculated with the virulent strain Margarita (secondary virus). For exclusive detection of the Margarita strain, a specific qRT-PCR assay was designed, which proved not to have cross-reactivity with the Cat01 strain. The wild boars persistently infected with CSFV were protected from superinfection by the virulent CSFV Margarita strain, as evidenced by the absence of clinical signs and the absence of Margarita RNA detection in serum, swabs and tissue samples. Additionally, in PBMCs, a well-known target for CSFV viral replication, only the primary infecting virus RNA (Cat01 strain) could be detected, even after the isolation in ST cells, demonstrating SIE at the tissue level in vivo. Furthermore, the data analysis of the Margarita qRT-PCR, by means of calculated ΔCt values, supported that PBMCs from persistently infected animals were substantially protected from superinfection after in vitro inoculation with the Margarita virus strain, while this virus was able to infect naive PBMCs efficiently. In parallel, IFN-α values were undetectable in the sera from animals in Group B after inoculation with the CSFV Margarita strain. Furthermore, these animals were unable to elicit adaptive humoral (no E2-specific or neutralising antibodies) or cellular immune responses (in terms of IFN-γ-producing cells) after inoculation with the second virus. Finally, a sequence analysis could not detect CSFV Margarita RNA in the samples tested from Group B. Our results suggested that the SIE phenomenon might be involved in the evolution and phylogeny of the virus, as well as in CSFV control by vaccination. To the best of our knowledge, this study was one of the first showing efficient suppression of superinfection in animals, especially in the absence of IFN-α, which might be associated with the lack of innate immune mechanisms.

Project description:The first cases of African swine fever (ASF) were detected in the Lithuanian wild boar population in 2014. Since then, the disease spread slowly through the whole country, affecting both, wild boar and domestic pigs. In the other Baltic states, which both are also affected by ASF since 2014, the recent course of ASF prevalence suggests that the countries might be well under way of disease elimination. In contrast, in Lithuania the epidemic seems to be still in full progress. In the present study, we aimed to extend a previous prevalence study in Lithuania. Looking at ASF virus (ASFV) and seroprevalence estimates of wild boar in all months of 2018 and in all affected municipalities in Lithuania, the course of ASF was evaluated on a temporal and spatial scale. A non-spatial beta-binomial model was used to correct for under- or overestimation of the average prevalence estimates. Within 2018 no big differences between the prevalence estimates were seen over time. Despite of the lower sample size, highest ASFV prevalence estimates were found in dead wild boar, suggesting higher detection rates through passive surveillance than through active surveillance. Accordingly, with the maximum prevalence of 87.5% in May 2018, the ASFV prevalence estimates were very high in wild boar found dead. The number of samples originating from hunted animals (active surveillance) predominated clearly. However, the ASFV prevalence in those animals was lower with a maximum value of 2.1%, emphasizing the high value of passive surveillance. A slight increase of the seroprevalence in hunted wild boar could be seen over time. In the center of Lithuania, a cluster of municipalities with high ASFV and seroprevalence estimates was found. The results of the study indicate that ASFV is still circulating within the Lithuanian wild boar population, constituting a permanent risk of disease transmission into domestic pig holdings. However, additional, more recent data analyses are necessary to re-evaluate the course of ASF in Lithuania and thus, to be able to make a statement about the stage of the ASF epidemic in the country. This is of huge importance for Lithuania for evaluating control measures and their efficacy, but also for neighbouring countries to assess the risk of disease spread from Lithuania.

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ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures.

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