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Prognostic dynamic nomogram integrated with metabolic acidosis for in-hospital mortality and organ malperfusion in acute type B aortic dissection patients undergoing thoracic endovascular aortic repair.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Organ malperfusion is a lethal complication in acute type B aortic dissection (ATBAD). The aim of present study is to develop a nomogram integrated with metabolic acidosis to predict in-hospital mortality and organ malperfusion in patients with ATBAD undergoing thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR).

Methods

The nomogram was derived from a retrospectively study of 286 ATBAD patients who underwent TEVAR from 2010 to 2017 at a single medical center. Model performance was evaluated from discrimination and calibration capacities, as well as clinical effectiveness. The results were validated using a prospective study on 77 patients from 2018 to 2019 at the same center.

Results

In the multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort, the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and organ malperfusion identified were base excess, maximum aortic diameter???5.5 cm, renal dysfunction, D-dimer level???5.44 ?g/mL and albumin amount???30 g/L. The penalized model was internally validated by bootstrapping and showed excellent discriminatory (bias-corrected c-statistic, 0.85) and calibration capacities (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value, 0.471; Brier Score, 0.072; Calibration intercept, - 0.02; Slope, 0.98). After being applied to the external validation cohort, the model yielded a c-statistic of 0.86 and Brier Score of 0.097. The model had high negative predictive values (0.93-0.94) and moderate positive predictive values (0.60-0.71) for in-hospital mortality and organ malperfusion in both cohorts.

Conclusions

A predictive nomogram combined with base excess has been established that can be used to identify high risk ATBAD patients of developing in-hospital mortality or organ malperfusion when undergoing TEVAR.

SUBMITTER: Liu J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7927380 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prognostic dynamic nomogram integrated with metabolic acidosis for in-hospital mortality and organ malperfusion in acute type B aortic dissection patients undergoing thoracic endovascular aortic repair.

Liu Jitao J   Liu Weijie W   Ma Wentao W   Chen Lyufan L   Liang Hong H   Fan Ruixin R   Zeng Hongke H   Geng Qingshan Q   Yang Fan F   Luo Jianfang J  

BMC cardiovascular disorders 20210302 1


<h4>Background</h4>Organ malperfusion is a lethal complication in acute type B aortic dissection (ATBAD). The aim of present study is to develop a nomogram integrated with metabolic acidosis to predict in-hospital mortality and organ malperfusion in patients with ATBAD undergoing thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR).<h4>Methods</h4>The nomogram was derived from a retrospectively study of 286 ATBAD patients who underwent TEVAR from 2010 to 2017 at a single medical center. Model performance  ...[more]

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