An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: He Q
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928509 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundMalaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010.MethodsPlasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006-2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985-2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2-10 year old PfPR data (PfPR(2-10)) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR(2-10) endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface.ResultsWe estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas.ConclusionWhile further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of future strategies against this 2010 baseline and ultimately improve their evidence-based malaria control strategies.
| S-EPMC3126795 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Intervention efforts against falciparum malaria in high-transmission regions remain challenging, with rapid resurgence typically following their relaxation. Such resilience co-occurs with incomplete immunity and a large transmission reservoir from high asymptomatic prevalence. Incomplete immunity relates to the large antigenic variation of the parasite, with the major surface antigen of the blood stage of infection encoded by the multigene and recombinant family known as var. With a stochastic agent-based model, we investigate the existence of a sharp transition in resurgence ability with intervention intensity and identify molecular indicators informative of its proximity. Their application to survey data with deep sampling of var sequences from individual isolates in northern Ghana suggests that the transmission system was brought close to transition by intervention with indoor residual spraying. These results indicate that sustaining and intensifying intervention would have pushed malaria dynamics to a slow-rebound regime with an increased probability of local parasite extinction.
| S-EPMC11347654 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEfficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007.Methods and findingsA total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2-10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2-10 < or = 5%). The vast majority (88%) of those living under stable risk in CSE Asia were also in this low endemicity class; a small remainder (11%) were in the intermediate endemicity class (PfPR2-10 > 5 to < 40%); and the remaining fraction (1%) in high endemicity (PfPR2-10 > or = 40%) areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion), with a smaller number (0.11 billion) at low stable risk.ConclusionsHigh levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are found in the Americas. Low endemicity is also widespread in CSE Asia, but pockets of intermediate and very rarely high transmission remain. There are therefore significant opportunities for malaria control in Africa and for malaria elimination elsewhere. This 2007 global P. falciparum malaria endemicity map is the first of a series with which it will be possible to monitor and evaluate the progress of this intervention process.
| S-EPMC2659708 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The quantification of malaria transmission for the classification of malaria risk has long been a concern for epidemiologists. During the era of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme, measurements of malaria endemicity were institutionalised by their incorporation into rules outlining defined action points for malaria control programmes. We review the historical development of these indices and their contemporary relevance. This is at a time when many malaria-endemic countries are scaling-up their malaria control activities and reconsidering their prospects for elimination. These considerations are also important to an international community that has recently been challenged to revaluate the prospects for malaria eradication.
| S-EPMC2653619 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTransmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR).MethodsAnnual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty.ResultsAn estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission.ConclusionsThe year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.
| S-EPMC3274487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Achieving malaria elimination requires a better understanding of the transmissibility of human infections in different transmission settings. This study aimed to characterize the human infectious reservoir in a high endemicity setting in eastern Uganda, using gametocyte quantification and mosquito feeding assays. In asymptomatic infections, gametocyte densities were positively associated with the proportion of infected mosquitoes (β = 1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.92; P < .0001). Combining transmissibility and abundance in the population, symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were estimated to contribute to 5.3% and 94.7% of the infectious reservoir, respectively. School-aged children (5-15 years old) contributed to 50.4% of transmission events and were important drivers of malaria transmission.
| S-EPMC9441202 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveA community-based cross-sectional study was done to assess Plasmodium falciparum exposure in areas with different malaria endemicity in north-eastern Tanzania using serological markers; PfAMA-1 and PfMSP-119.ResultsBondo had a higher seroprevalence 36.6% (188) for PfAMA-1 as compared to Hai 13.8% (33), χ2 = 34.66, p < 0.01. Likewise, Bondo had a higher seroprevalence 201(36.6%) for PfMSP-1 as compared to Hai 41 (17.2%), χ2 = 29.62, p < 0.01. Anti-PfAMA-1 titters were higher in malaria positive individuals (n = 47) than in malaria negative individuals (n = 741) (p = 0.07). Anti-PfMSP-1 antibody concentrations were significantly higher in malaria-positive individuals (n = 47) than in malaria-negative individuals (n = 741) (p = 0.003). Antibody response against PfAMA-1 was significantly different between the three age groups; < 5 years, 5 to 15 years and > 15 years in both sites of Bondo and Hai. Likewise, antibody response against PfMSP-119 was significantly different between the three age groups in the two sites (p < 0.001). We also found significant differences in the anti-PfAMA-1and anti-PfMSP-119 antibody concentrations among the three age groups in the two sites (p = 0.004 and 0.005) respectively. Immunological indicators of P. falciparum exposure have proven to be useful in explaining long-term changes in the transmission dynamics, especially in low transmission settings.
| S-EPMC8557592 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control and the optimal distribution of appropriate interventions require accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk and of the human populations it affects. Low population densities in rural areas and high population densities in urban areas can influence malaria transmission substantially. Here, the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) global database of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys, medical intelligence and contemporary population surfaces are utilized to explore these relationships and other issues involved in combining malaria risk maps with those of human population distribution in order to define populations at risk more accurately.MethodsFirst, an existing population surface was examined to determine if it was sufficiently detailed to be used reliably as a mask to identify areas of very low and very high population density as malaria free regions. Second, the potential of international travel and health guidelines (ITHGs) for identifying malaria free cities was examined. Third, the differences in PfPR values between surveys conducted in author-defined rural and urban areas were examined. Fourth, the ability of various global urban extent maps to reliably discriminate these author-based classifications of urban and rural in the PfPR database was investigated. Finally, the urban map that most accurately replicated the author-based classifications was analysed to examine the effects of urban classifications on PfPR values across the entire MAP database.ResultsMasks of zero population density excluded many non-zero PfPR surveys, indicating that the population surface was not detailed enough to define areas of zero transmission resulting from low population densities. In contrast, the ITHGs enabled the identification and mapping of 53 malaria free urban areas within endemic countries. Comparison of PfPR survey results showed significant differences between author-defined 'urban' and 'rural' designations in Africa, but not for the remainder of the malaria endemic world. The Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) urban extent mask proved most accurate for mapping these author-defined rural and urban locations, and further sub-divisions of urban extents into urban and peri-urban classes enabled the effects of high population densities on malaria transmission to be mapped and quantified.ConclusionThe availability of detailed, contemporary census and urban extent data for the construction of coherent and accurate global spatial population databases is often poor. These known sources of uncertainty in population surfaces and urban maps have the potential to be incorporated into future malaria burden estimates. Currently, insufficient spatial information exists globally to identify areas accurately where population density is low enough to impact upon transmission. Medical intelligence does however exist to reliably identify malaria free cities. Moreover, in Africa, urban areas that have a significant effect on malaria transmission can be mapped.
| S-EPMC2586635 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe impact of large dams on malaria has received widespread attention. However, understanding how dam topography and transmission endemicity influence malaria incidences is limited.MethodsData from the European Commission's Joint Research Center and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were used to determine reservoir perimeters and shoreline slope of African dams. Georeferenced data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) were used to estimate malaria incidence rates in communities near reservoir shorelines. Population data from the WorldPop database were used to estimate the population at risk of malaria around dams in stable and unstable areas.ResultsThe data showed that people living near (< 5 km) large dams in sub-Saharan Africa grew from 14.4 million in 2000 to 18.7 million in 2015. Overall, across sub-Saharan Africa between 0.7 and 1.6 million malaria cases per year are attributable to large dams. Whilst annual malaria incidence declined markedly in both stable and unstable areas between 2000 and 2015, the malaria impact of dams appeared to increase in unstable areas, but decreased in stable areas. Shoreline slope was found to be the most important malaria risk factor in dam-affected geographies, explaining 41-82% (P < 0.001) of the variation in malaria incidence around reservoirs.ConclusionGentler, more gradual shoreline slopes were associated with much greater malaria risk. Dam-related environmental variables such as dam topography and shoreline slopes are an important factor that should be considered in efforts to predict and control malaria around dams.
| S-EPMC6720395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many pathogenic bacteria, fungi, and protozoa achieve chronic infection through an immune evasion strategy known as antigenic variation. In the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, this involves transcriptional switching among members of the var gene family, causing parasites with different antigenic and phenotypic characteristics to appear at different times within a population. Here we use a genome-wide approach to explore this process in vitro within a set of cloned parasite populations. Our analyses reveal a non-random, highly structured switch pathway where an initially dominant transcript switches via a set of switch-intermediates either to a new dominant transcript, or back to the original. We show that this specific pathway can arise through an evolutionary conflict in which the pathogen has to optimise between safeguarding its limited antigenic repertoire and remaining capable of establishing infections in non-naïve individuals. Our results thus demonstrate a crucial role for structured switching during the early phases of infections and provide a unifying theory of antigenic variation in P. falciparum malaria as a balanced process of parasite-intrinsic switching and immune-mediated selection.
| S-EPMC3048365 | biostudies-literature