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ABSTRACT: Background
Widespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries.Methods
We use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of disease avoidance into the epidemiological projections to estimate the return to more stringent lockdown policies.Results
Social distancing measures that 'flatten the curve' of the disease provide immense welfare value in upper-income countries. However, social distancing policies deliver significantly less value in lower-income countries that have younger populations, which are less vulnerable to COVID-19. Equally important, social distancing mandates a trade-off between disease risk and economic activity. Poorer people are less able to make those economic sacrifices.Conclusions
The epidemiological and welfare value of social distancing is smaller in lower-income countries and such policies may exact a heavy toll on the poorest and most vulnerable. Workers in the informal sector often lack the resources and social protections that enable them to isolate themselves until the virus passes. By limiting these households' ability to earn a living, social distancing can lead to an increase in hunger, deprivation, and related mortality and morbidity.
SUBMITTER: Barnett-Howell Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928561 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Barnett-Howell Zachary Z Watson Oliver John OJ Mobarak Ahmed Mushfiq AM
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 20210701 7
<h4>Background</h4>Widespread social distancing and lockdowns of everyday activity have been the primary policy prescription across many countries throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Despite their uniformity, these measures may be differentially valuable for different countries.<h4>Methods</h4>We use a compartmental epidemiological model to project the spread of COVID-19 across policy scenarios in high- and low-income countries. We embed estimates of the welfare value of ...[more]