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ABSTRACT: Background
In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.Methods
We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.Results
The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.Conclusions
In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.
SUBMITTER: Prada JM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7928650 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Prada Joaquín M JM Stolk Wilma A WA Davis Emma L EL Touloupou Panayiota P Sharma Swarnali S Muñoz Johanna J Caja Rivera Rocio M RM Reimer Lisa J LJ Michael Edwin E de Vlas Sake J SJ Hollingsworth T Déirdre TD
Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 20210301 3
<h4>Background</h4>In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.<h4>Methods</h4>We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme ...[more]