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Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbreaks in Sweden, in the time period of 1860-2020, are characterized and compared to the currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The focus is on outbreaks with a sharp increase in all-cause mortality. Outbreak onset is defined as the time point when death counts start to increase consistently for a period of at least 10 days. The duration of the outbreak is defined as the time period in which mortality rates are elevated. Excess mortality is estimated by standard methods. In total there were 15 outbreaks detected in the time period, the first 14 were likely caused by influenza virus infections, the last by SARS-CoV-2. The mortality dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is shown to be similar to outbreaks due to influenza virus, and in terms of the number of excess deaths, it is the worst outbreak in Sweden since the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919.

SUBMITTER: Ledberg A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7930003 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

Ledberg Anders A

Frontiers in public health 20210218

Influenza viruses have caused disease outbreaks in human societies for a long time. Influenza often has rapid onset and relatively short duration, both in the individual and in the population. The case fatality rate varies for different strains of the virus, as do the effects on total mortality. Outbreaks related to coronavirus infections have recently become a global concern but much less is known about the dynamics of these outbreaks and their effects on mortality. In this work, disease outbre ...[more]

PMID: 33681118

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Project description:BackgroundDuring the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Iran reported its first confirmed cases of syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections on 19 February 2020 in Qom. Although the numbers of cases are increasing, no report about clinical manifestations, laboratory results, and imaging findings of the children infected with COVID-19 in Iran has been published. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological, clinical, and radiological and laboratory findings of 24 children who had proven SARS-CoV-2 infection and performed chest computed tomographic (CT) in Qom, Iran.MethodsDemographic information and clinical characteristics of the patients including signs and symptoms, chest CT scan manifestation, laboratory findings and clinical outcomes were collected. Diagnosing of the confirmed case was based on positive real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction test for SARS-CoV-2.FindingsDuring the first 3 months of the epidemic in Qom, Iran, 24 children with confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were included. The median age of the cases was 6 years [inter-quartile range 3.5-9.5 years]. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (100%), dry cough (62.5%), tachypnea (29%), abdominal pain (21%), and vomiting (21%). Three cases (12.5%) presented with a history of diarrhea in addition to fever and cough. According to the chest CT findings, 2 cases (8%) showed no abnormality. Typical CT findings were found in 6 patients (25%), 2 patients showed indeterminate appearance, and 14 patients (58%) showed atypical findings. Two children with SARS-CoV-2 infection manifested as a hyperinflammatory syndrome with multi-organ involvement similar to Kawasaki disease shock syndrome. Seventy-one percent of the patients showed severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and the mortality of 12.5% (3 cases) were reported.InterpretationHigh frequency of atypical chest CT finding in children should raise concern for pediatricians. Early recognition of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is of crucial importance in controlling of the outbreak and atypical imaging features should be interpreted with caution.

Dataset Information

Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

Publications

Mortality of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Sweden in Relation to Previous Severe Disease Outbreaks.

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