Dataset Information

Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified.

Methods and findings

We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance.

Conclusions

In this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention.

SUBMITTER: Jean K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7932543 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionPrompted by recent amendments of Yellow Fever (YF) vaccination guidelines from boost to single vaccination strategy and the paucity of clinical data to support this adjustment, we used the profile of the YF-specific CD8+ T-cell subset profiles after primary vaccination and neutralizing antibodies as a proxy for potentially longer lasting immunity.Methods and findingsPBMCs and serum were collected in six individuals on days 0, 3, 5, 12, 28 and 180, and in 99 individuals >10 years after YF-vaccination. Phenotypic characteristics of YF- tetramer+ CD8+ T-cells were determined using class I tetramers. Antibody responses were measured using a standardized plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). Also, characteristics of YF-tetramer positive CD8+ T-cells were compared between individuals who had received a primary- and a booster vaccination. YF-tetramer+ CD8+ T-cells were detectable on day 12 (median tetramer+ cells as percentage of CD8+ T-cells 0.2%, range 0.07-3.1%). On day 180, these cells were still present (median 0.06%, range 0.02-0.78%). The phenotype of YF-tetramer positive CD8+ T-cells shifted from acute phase effector cells on day 12, to late differentiated or effector memory phenotype (CD45RA-/+CD27-) on day 28. Two subsets of YF-tetramer positive T-cells (CD45RA+CD27- and CD45RA+CD27+) persisted until day 180. Within all phenotypic subsets, the T-bet: Eomes ratio tended to be high on day 28 after vaccination and shifted towards predominant Eomes expression on day 180 (median 6.0 (day 28) vs. 2.2 (day 180) p = 0.0625), suggestive of imprinting compatible with long-lived memory properties. YF-tetramer positive CD8+ T-cells were detectable up to 18 years post vaccination, YF-specific antibodies were detectable up to 40 years after single vaccination. Booster vaccination did not increase titers of YF-specific antibodies (mean 12.5 vs. 13.1, p = 0.583), nor induce frequencies or alter phenotypes of YF-tetramer+ CD8+ T-cells.ConclusionThe presence of a functionally competent YF-specific memory T-cell pool 18 years and sufficient titers of neutralizing antibodies 35-40 years after first vaccination suggest that single vaccination may be sufficient to provide long-term immunity.

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