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Socio-demographic, not environmental, risk factors explain fine-scale spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease in Ifanadiana, rural Madagascar.

ABSTRACT: Precision health mapping is a technique that uses spatial relationships between socio-ecological variables and disease to map the spatial distribution of disease, particularly for diseases with strong environmental signatures, such as diarrhoeal disease (DD). While some studies use GPS-tagged location data, other precision health mapping efforts rely heavily on data collected at coarse-spatial scales and may not produce operationally relevant predictions at fine enough spatio-temporal scales to inform local health programmes. We use two fine-scale health datasets collected in a rural district of Madagascar to identify socio-ecological covariates associated with childhood DD. We constructed generalized linear mixed models including socio-demographic, climatic and landcover variables and estimated variable importance via multi-model inference. We find that socio-demographic variables, and not environmental variables, are strong predictors of the spatial distribution of disease risk at both individual and commune-level (cluster of villages) spatial scales. Climatic variables predicted strong seasonality in DD, with the highest incidence in colder, drier months, but did not explain spatial patterns. Interestingly, the occurrence of a national holiday was highly predictive of increased DD incidence, highlighting the need for including cultural factors in modelling efforts. Our findings suggest that precision health mapping efforts that do not include socio-demographic covariates may have reduced explanatory power at the local scale. More research is needed to better define the set of conditions under which the application of precision health mapping can be operationally useful to local public health professionals.

SUBMITTER: Evans MV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7934917 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Diarrhoea is one of the major contributors to death among under-five children in Ethiopia. Studies conducted in different countries showed that rural children are more severely affected by diarrhoea than urban children. Thus, this study was aimed to identify the socio-demographic, environmental and behavioural associated risk factors of the occurrence of diarrhoea among under-five children in rural Ethiopia. METHODS:Data for the study was drawn from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 8041 under-five children were included in the study. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the association of occurrence of diarrhoea with socio-demographic, environmental and behavioural factors among under-five children. RESULTS:Children aged 6-11?months (AOR:3.5; 95% CI: 2.58-4.87), 12-23?months (AOR: 3.1; 95% CI: 2.33-4.04) and 24-35?months (AOR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.26-2.34) as compared to >?35?months were significantly associated with an increasing prevalence of diarrhoea. Children in Afar region (AOR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.01-3.64) and Gambela region (AOR: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.81) were significantly associated with an increasing prevalence of diarrhoea, but a decreasing prevalence in Somali region (AOR: .42; 95% CI: (.217-.80) as compared to Tigray region. Increasing prevalence of diarrhoea was also significantly associated with male children (AOR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.05-1.58); households who shared toilet facilities with other households (AOR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.09-1.77); fourth birth order (AOR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.17-2.79), and fifth and above birth order (AOR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.81) as compared to first order; and mother's current age 35-49?years in a household with ?3 under-five children (AOR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.64-13.45) as compared to those maternal ages of 15-24?years in a household with ?2 under-five children. CONCLUSION:The age of a child, sex of a child, region, birth order, toilet facilities shared with other households and the interaction effect of the number of under-five children with mother's current age are identified as associated risk factors for diarrhoea occurrence among under-five children in rural Ethiopia. The findings show the need for planning and implementing appropriate prevention strategies considering these risk factors for rural under-five children.

Project description:BackgroundThe impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods.MethodsSuicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs.ResultsIn Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996-2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001-2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III.ConclusionsProportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.

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Socio-demographic, not environmental, risk factors explain fine-scale spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease in Ifanadiana, rural Madagascar.

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