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How the global health security index and environment factor influence the spread of COVID-19: A country level analysis.

ABSTRACT: The progress of viral diseases such as the new coronavirus (COVID-19) can be influenced not only by social isolation policies, but also by climatic factors. Understanding how these factors affect the progress of the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may be essential to know the risks each country is facing because of the disease. In this study, we verified the existence of a relationship between the basic reproduction number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 with different climate variables, while also considering the Global Health Security Index (GHS). We collected data from confirmed cases of COVID-19 along with their respective GHS notes and climate data, from December 31, 2019 to April 13, 2020, for 52 countries. The generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the effect of temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation index, and GHS score on the spread rate of COVID-19. The countries that showed similarity to each other were grouped into clusters using the Kohonen self-organizing map methodology to investigate the importance of each variable in the dissemination of the disease. The temperature variable presented a linear relationship (p < 0.001) with the R0, with an explained variation of 36.2%, while the relative humidity variable did not present a significant relationship with the R0. The response curve of the solar radiation variable presented a significant nonlinear relationship (p < 0.001) with an explained variation of 32.3%. The GHS index variable, with a significant nonlinear relationship (p < 0.001), presented the largest explanatory response in the control of COVID-19, with an explained variation of 38.4%; further, it was observed that the countries with the largest GHS index scores were less influenced by climate variables.

SUBMITTER: Leichtweis BG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7943391 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMortality rates from cervical cancer demonstrate deep inequality in health between richer and poorer populations. Over 310 000 women died of this preventable disease in 2018, mostly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) where screening and treatment are beyond the capacity of health systems. Immunisation against human papillomavirus (HPV) offers a primary prevention strategy, but rates of vaccination uptake are unclear. Understanding coverage levels and factors affecting uptake can inform immunisation strategies.ObjectivesThe aim of this study is to evaluate the status of HPV vaccination coverage from nationally reported indicators and to estimate global coverage in a single year cohort of vaccine-eligible girls.DesignThis study provides quantitative population-level estimates of important global health indicators. Using data from the Global Cancer Observatory and WHO/UNICEF, incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer and HPV vaccination coverage are described for countries, categorised by income group. Characteristics of LMICs achieving high coverage are explored using selected development indicators from World Bank sources. Global HPV immunisation coverage is calculated and its impact on cervical cancer mortality estimated.ResultsIncidence and mortality for cervical cancer correlate with poverty. Whilst all WHO member states report high infant measles vaccination rates, fewer than half report on HPV vaccination. Even amongst high-income countries, coverage varies widely. In upper-middle-income countries, there is a trend for higher coverage with increased health spending per capita. Four LMICs report good coverage levels, all associated with external funding. Global HPV immunisation coverage for 2018 is estimated at 12.2%. Of the global cohort of 61 million 15-year-old girls in 2018, 7000 are likely to die from cervical cancer, almost all in LMICs.ConclusionsCountries in all income groups must devise strategies to achieve and maintain higher levels of HPV immunisation. For all but the richest, affordability remains a barrier.

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How the global health security index and environment factor influence the spread of COVID-19: A country level analysis.

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