Dataset Information

Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Following well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of COVID-19 deaths to facilitate comparisons over time and across populations.

Settings

National populations in 186 United Nations countries and territories and populations in first-level subnational administrative entities in Brazil, China, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Spain and the USA.

Participants

None (death statistics only).

Primary and secondary outcome measures

An unstandardised occurrence/exposure rate comparable to the Crude Death Rate; an indirectly age-and-sex standardised rate that can be derived even when the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by age and sex required for direct standardisation is unavailable; the reduction in life expectancy at birth corresponding to the 2020 number of COVID-19 deaths.

Results

To date, the highest unstandardised rate has been in New York, at its peak exceeding the state 2017 crude death rate. Populations compare differently after standardisation: while parts of Italy, Spain and the USA have the highest unstandardised rates, parts of Mexico and Peru have the highest standardised rates. For several populations with the necessary data by age and sex for direct standardisation, we show that direct and indirect standardisation yield similar results. US life expectancy is estimated to have declined this year by more than a year (-1.26 years), far more than during the worst year of the HIV epidemic, or the worst 3?years of the opioid crisis, and to reach its lowest level since 2008. Substantially larger reductions, exceeding 2?years, are estimated for Panama, Peru, and parts of Italy, Spain, the USA and especially, Mexico.

Conclusions

With lesser demand on data than direct standardisation, indirect standardisation is a valid alternative to adjust international comparisons for differences in population distribution by sex and age-groups. A number of populations have experienced reductions in 2020 life expectancies that are substantial by recent historical standards.

SUBMITTER: Heuveline P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7948156 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators.

Heuveline Patrick P Tzen Michael M

BMJ open 20210310 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>Following well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of COVID-19 deaths to facilitate comparisons over time and across populations.<h4>Settings</h4>National populations in 186 United Nations countries and territories and populations in first-level subnational administrative entities in Brazil, China, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Spain and the USA.<h4>Participants</h4>None (death statistics only).<h4>Primary and secondary outco ...[more]

PMID: 33692179

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Project description:BackgroundNew data on COVID-19 may influence the stringency of containment policies, but these potential effect are not understood. We aimed to understand the associations of new COVID-19 cases and deaths with policy stringency globally and regionally.MethodsWe modelled the marginal effects of new COVID-19 cases and deaths on policy stringency (scored 0-100) in 175 countries and territories, adjusting for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and health expenditure (% of GDP), and public expenditure on health. The time periods examined were March to August 2020, September 2020 to February 2021, and March to August 2021.ResultsPolicy response to new cases and deaths was faster and more stringent early in the COVID-19 pandemic (March to August 2020) compared to subsequent periods. New deaths were more strongly associated with stringent policies than new cases. In an average week, one new death per 100 000 people was associated with a stringency increase of 2.1 units in the March to August 2020 period, 1.3 units in the September 2020 to February 2021 period, and 0.7 units in the March to August 2021 period. New deaths in Africa and the Western Pacific were associated with more stringency than in other regions. Higher health expenditure as a percentage of GDP was associated with less stringent policies. Similarly, higher public expenditure on health by governments was mostly associated with less stringency across all three periods. GDP per capita did not have consistent patterns of associations with stringency.ConclusionsThe stringency of COVID-19 policies was more strongly associated with new deaths than new cases. Our findings demonstrate the need for enhanced mortality surveillance to ensure policy alignment during health emergencies. Countries that invest less in health or have a lower public expenditure on health may be inclined to enact more stringent policies. This new empirical understanding of COVID-19 policy drivers can help public health officials anticipate and shape policy responses in future health emergencies.

Project description:BackgroundMultiple survey reports suggest that alcohol use has increased in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, less is known about how per capita alcohol sales, which predict population-level alcohol use, have changed and whether changes in alcohol sales differ from changes in sales of other products due to pandemic factors.MethodsWe obtained monthly retail sales data by industry from Statistics Canada, for the six largest provinces in Canada (containing 93% of the national population), between January 2010 and November 2020, representing time before and 9 months after the start of the pandemic in Canada. We used an interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic impacts on the dollar value of monthly per capita (per individuals 15+ years) alcohol, essential and non-essential retail sales. We adjusted our analyses for pre-pandemic sales trends, inflation, seasonality and changing population demographics over time.ResultsDuring the first 9 months of the pandemic, the values of per capita alcohol, essential and non-essential sales were, respectively, 13.2% higher, 3.6% higher and 13.1% lower than the average values during the same period in the prior 3 years. Interrupted time series models showed significant level change for the value of monthly per capita alcohol sales (+$4.86, 95% CIs: 2.88, 6.83), essential sales (-$59.80, 95% CIs: - 78.47, - 41.03) and non-essential sales (-$308.70, 95% CIs: - $326.60, - 290.79) during the pandemic. Alcohol sales were consistently elevated during the pandemic, and the pre- and post-pandemic slopes were comparable. In contrast, essential and non-essential retail sales declined in the early months of the pandemic before returning to regular spending levels.ConclusionDuring the first 9 months of the pandemic, per capita alcohol sales were moderately elevated in Canada. In contrast, non-essential sales were lower than prior years, driven by large decreases during the initial months of the pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic was associated with increased population-level alcohol consumption, which may lead to increased alcohol-related harms. Ongoing research is needed to examine how factors, including pandemic-related stressors and specific alcohol sales-related policies, may have influenced changes in alcohol use and harms.

Dataset Information

Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators.

Objectives

Settings

Participants

Primary and secondary outcome measures

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators.

Similar Datasets

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