Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Rozhnova G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7955041 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:ObjectivesTo comprehensively map the existing evidence assessing the impact of travel-related control measures for containment of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic.DesignRapid evidence map.Data sourcesMEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science, and COVID-19 specific databases offered by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the WHO.Eligibility criteriaWe included studies in human populations susceptible to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19, SARS-CoV-1/severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus/Middle East respiratory syndrome or influenza. Interventions of interest were travel-related control measures affecting travel across national or subnational borders. Outcomes of interest included infectious disease, screening, other health, economic and social outcomes. We considered all empirical studies that quantitatively evaluate impact available in Armenian, English, French, German, Italian and Russian based on the team's language capacities.Data extraction and synthesisWe extracted data from included studies in a standardised manner and mapped them to a priori and (one) post hoc defined categories.ResultsWe included 122 studies assessing travel-related control measures. These studies were undertaken across the globe, most in the Western Pacific region (n=71). A large proportion of studies focused on COVID-19 (n=59), but a number of studies also examined SARS, MERS and influenza. We identified studies on border closures (n=3), entry/exit screening (n=31), travel-related quarantine (n=6), travel bans (n=8) and travel restrictions (n=25). Many addressed a bundle of travel-related control measures (n=49). Most studies assessed infectious disease (n=98) and/or screening-related (n=25) outcomes; we found only limited evidence on economic and social outcomes. Studies applied numerous methods, both inferential and descriptive in nature, ranging from simple observational methods to complex modelling techniques.ConclusionsWe identified a heterogeneous and complex evidence base on travel-related control measures. While this map is not sufficient to assess the effectiveness of different measures, it outlines aspects regarding interventions and outcomes, as well as study methodology and reporting that could inform future research and evidence synthesis.
| S-EPMC8042592 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1076 | biostudies-other
Project description:An epidemiological model for COVID-19 was developed and implemented in MATLAB/GNU Octave for use by public health practitioners, policy makers, and the general public. The model distinguishes four stages in the disease: infected, sick, seriously sick, and better. The model was preliminarily parameterized based on observations of the spread of the disease. The model assumes a case mortality rate of 1.5%. Preliminary simulations with the model indicate that concepts such as "herd immunity" and containment ("flattening the curve") are highly misleading in the context of this virus. Public policies based on these concepts are inadequate to protect the population. Only reducing the R 0 of the virus below 1 is an effective strategy for maintaining the death burden of COVID-19 within the normal range of seasonal flu. The model is illustrated with the cases of Italy, France, and Iran and is able to describe the number of deaths as a function of time in all these cases although future projections tend to slightly overestimate the number of deaths when the analysis is made early on. The model can also be used to describe reopenings of the economy after a lockdown. The case mortality rate is still prone to large uncertainty, but modeling combined with an investigation of blood donations in The Netherlands imposes a lower limit of 1%.
| S-EPMC7416305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn the current COVID-19 pandemic, aggressive Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) measures have been adopted to prevent health care-associated transmission of COVID-19. We evaluated the impact of a multimodal IPC strategy originally designed for the containment of COVID-19 on the rates of other hospital-acquired-infections (HAIs).MethodologyFrom February-August 2020, a multimodal IPC strategy was implemented across a large health care campus in Singapore, comprising improved segregation of patients with respiratory symptoms, universal masking and heightened adherence to Standard Precautions. The following rates of HAI were compared pre- and postpandemic: health care-associated respiratory-viral-infection (HA-RVI), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and CP-CRE acquisition rates, health care-facility-associated C difficile infections and device-associated HAIs.ResultsEnhanced IPC measures introduced to contain COVID-19 had the unintended positive consequence of containing HA-RVI. The cumulative incidence of HA-RVI decreased from 9.69 cases per 10,000 patient-days to 0.83 cases per 10,000 patient-days (incidence-rate-ratio = 0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05-0.13, P< .05). Hospital-wide MRSA acquisition rates declined significantly during the pandemic (incidence-rate-ratio = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.46-0.64, P< .05), together with central-line-associated-bloodstream infection rates (incidence-rate-ratio = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.07-0.57, P< .05); likely due to increased compliance with Standard Precautions. Despite the disruption caused by the pandemic, there was no increase in CP-CRE acquisition, and rates of other HAIs remained stable.ConclusionsMultimodal IPC strategies can be implemented at scale to successfully mitigate health care-associated transmission of RVIs. Good adherence to personal-protective-equipment and hand hygiene kept other HAI rates stable even during an ongoing pandemic where respiratory infections were prioritized for interventions.
| S-EPMC7610096 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1055 | biostudies-other
Project description:On March 16, 2020, French schools suddenly closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and middle school students were asked to study from home with no direct interactions with teachers or classmates. However, school plays an important role in the development of social, intellectual, and mental competencies and can counteract the negative effects of adverse life events on learning and early school dropout. In this study, we investigated how the unusual context of school closure during the COVID-19 pandemic affected school engagement. Specifically, we focused on inter-individual differences in the motivational determinants of school engagement. We thus performed an online survey of 170 students focusing on the time spent on mathematics assignments, motivation regulation, implicit theories of intelligence, such as adopting a growth or a fixed mindset about his/her intellectual abilities, and optimism. Importantly, the students participated in the online survey during the first lockdown period, with schools closed (T1), and the second lockdown period, with schools remaining open (T2). During T1, identified motivation positively predicted the time spent on math homework assignments: the more the students thought that working on math exercises was useful for their future life, the more time they spent studying. Importantly, the link between identified motivation and school engagement was specific to T1, when schools were closed, as indicated by a significant interaction between identified motivations by type of lockdown. These results suggest that having self-determined motivation is of particular importance when students are deprived of social and intellectual interactions with classmates and teachers. This finding paves the way toward the development of wise rational interventions that target identified motivation and can be applied during challenging societal times and adverse, common life events to keep students engaged with school.
| S-EPMC8635061 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 has proven to be challenging to manage for many reasons, including its high infection rate. One of the potential ways to limit its spread is by limiting international travel. The objective of this systematic review was to identify, critically appraise and summarise evidence on international air travel-related control measures for COVID-19.MethodsThis review is based on the Cochrane review: International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and followed the same methods. In brief, we searched for clinical and modelling studies in general health and COVID-19-specific bibliographic databases. The primary outcome categories were (i) cases avoided, (ii) a shift in epidemic development and, (iii) cases detected.ResultsFrom 6,202 citations identified by the search strategy, we included 22 new studies (modelling = 9, observational = 13) in addition to the 62 studies identified in the Cochrane review. Studies suggest that quarantine or microbial detection or a combination may avoid further cases. Similarly, these interventions may produce a positive shift in epidemic development and case detection may improve. Most studies were evaluated as having a moderate to critical risk of bias. The studies did not change the main conclusions of the Cochrane review nor the quality of the evidence (very low certainty); however, they added to the evidence base for most outcomes.ConclusionsWeak evidence supports the use of international air travel-related control measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 via air travel. More real-world studies are required to support these conclusions.
| S-EPMC9691278 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 pathogen is currently spreading worldwide and its propensity for presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission makes it difficult to control. The control measures adopted in several countries aim at isolating individuals once diagnosed, limiting their social interactions and consequently their transmission probability. These interventions, which have a strong impact on the disease dynamics, can affect the inference of the epidemiological quantities. We first present a theoretical explanation of the effect caused by non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the mean serial and generation intervals. Then, in a simulation study, we vary the assumed efficacy of control measures and quantify the effect on the mean and variance of realized generation and serial intervals. The simulation results show that the realized serial and generation intervals both depend on control measures and their values contract according to the efficacy of the intervention strategies. Interestingly, the mean serial interval differs from the mean generation interval. The deviation between these two values depends on two factors. First, the number of undiagnosed infectious individuals. Second, the relationship between infectiousness, symptom onset and timing of isolation. Similarly, the standard deviations of realized serial and generation intervals do not coincide, with the former shorter than the latter on average. The findings of this study are directly relevant to estimates performed for the current COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the effective reproduction number is often inferred using both daily incidence data and the generation interval. Failing to account for either contraction or mis-specification by using the serial interval could lead to biased estimates of the effective reproduction number. Consequently, this might affect the choices made by decision makers when deciding which control measures to apply based on the value of the quantity thereof.
| S-EPMC8031880 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Anthropogenic heat (AH) is an important input for the urban thermal environment. While reduction in AH during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have weakened urban heat islands (UHI), quantitative assessments on this are lacking. Here, a new AH estimation method based on a remote sensing surface energy balance (RS-SEB) without hysteresis from heat storage was proposed to clarify the effects of COVID-19 control measures on AH. To weaken the impact of shadows, a simple and novel calibration method was developed to estimate the SEB in multiple regions and periods. To overcome the hysteresis of AH caused by heat storage, RS-SEB was combined with an inventory-based model and thermal stability analysis framework. The resulting AH was consistent with the latest global AH dataset and had a much higher spatial resolution, providing objective and refined features of human activities during the pandemic. Our study of four Chinese megacities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou) indicated that COVID-19 control measures severely restricted human activities and notably reduced AH. The reduction was up to 50% in Wuhan during the lockdown in February 2020 and gradually decreased after the lockdown was eased in April 2020, similar to that in Shanghai during the Level 1 pandemic response. In contrast, AH was less reduced in Guangzhou during the same period and increased in Beijing owing to extended central heating use in winter. AH decreased more in urban centers and the change in AH varied in terms of urban land use between cities and periods. Although UHI changes during the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be entirely attributed to AH changes, the considerable reduction in AH is an important feature accompanying the weakening of the UHI.
| S-EPMC10130332 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has forced societies across the world to resort to social distancing to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to the economic impacts of social distancing, there is growing desire to relax these measures. To characterize a range of possible strategies for control and to understand their consequences, we performed an optimal control analysis of a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given that the pandemic is already underway and controls have already been initiated, we calibrated our model to data from the USA and focused our analysis on optimal controls from May 2020 through December 2021. We found that a major factor that differentiates strategies that prioritize lives saved versus reduced time under control is how quickly control is relaxed once social distancing restrictions expire in May 2020. Strategies that maintain control at a high level until at least summer 2020 allow for tapering of control thereafter and minimal deaths, whereas strategies that relax control in the short term lead to fewer options for control later and a higher likelihood of exceeding hospital capacity. Our results also highlight that the potential scope for controlling COVID-19 until a vaccine is available depends on epidemiological parameters about which there is still considerable uncertainty, including the basic reproduction number and the effectiveness of social distancing. In light of those uncertainties, our results do not constitute a quantitative forecast and instead provide a qualitative portrayal of possible outcomes from alternative approaches to control.
| S-EPMC7473596 | biostudies-literature