Lack of an association between gallstone disease and bilirubin levels with risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomisation analysis.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Epidemiological studies of the relationship between gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconsistent. To address possible confounding and reverse causation, we examine the relationship between these potential risk factors and CRC using Mendelian randomisation (MR).Methods
We used two-sample MR to examine the relationship between genetic liability to gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with CRC in 26,397 patients and 41,481 controls. We calculated the odds ratio per genetically predicted SD unit increase in log bilirubin levels (ORSD) for CRC and tested for a non-zero causal effect of gallstones on CRC. Sensitivity analysis was applied to identify violations of estimator assumptions.Results
No association between either gallstone disease (P value = 0.60) or circulating levels of bilirubin (ORSD = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96-1.03, P value = 0.90) with CRC was shown.Conclusions
Despite the large scale of this study, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between either circulating levels of bilirubin or gallstone disease with risk of developing CRC. While the magnitude of effect suggested by some observational studies can confidently be excluded, we cannot exclude the possibility of smaller effect sizes and non-linear relationships.
SUBMITTER: Culliford R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7961009 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundBilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex.MethodsIn a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P < 5 × 10-8) with circulating total bilirubin were instrumented in a 2-sample MR to test for a potential causal effect of bilirubin on CRC risk in 52,775 CRC cases and 45,940 matched controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT) study.ResultsThe associations between circulating UCB levels and CRC risk differed by sex (Pheterogeneity = 0.008). Among men, higher levels of UCB were positively associated with CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04-1.36; per 1-SD increment of log-UCB). In women, an inverse association was observed (OR = 0.86 (0.76-0.97)). In the MR analysis of the main UGT1A1 SNP (rs6431625), genetically predicted higher levels of total bilirubin were associated with a 7% increase in CRC risk in men (OR = 1.07 (1.02-1.12); P = 0.006; per 1-SD increment of total bilirubin), while there was no association in women (OR = 1.01 (0.96-1.06); P = 0.73). Raised bilirubin levels, predicted by instrumental variables excluding rs6431625, were suggestive of an inverse association with CRC in men, but not in women. These differences by sex did not reach formal statistical significance (Pheterogeneity ≥ 0.2).ConclusionsAdditional insight into the relationship between circulating bilirubin and CRC is needed in order to conclude on a potential causal role of bilirubin in CRC development.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Whilst observational studies establish that lower plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) levels are associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), establishing causality has proven challenging. Since vitamin D is modifiable, these observations have substantial clinical and public health implications. Indeed, many health agencies already recommend supplemental vitamin D. Here, we explore causality in a large Mendelian randomisation (MR) study using an improved genetic instrument for circulating 25-OHD. METHODS:We developed a weighted genetic score for circulating 25-OHD using six genetic variants that we recently reported to be associated with circulating 25-OHD in a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis. Using this score as instrumental variable in MR analyses, we sought to determine whether circulating 25-OHD is causally linked with CRC risk. We conducted MR analysis using individual-level data from 10,725 CRC cases and 30,794 controls (Scotland, UK Biobank and Croatia). We then applied estimates from meta-analysis of 11 GWAS of CRC risk (18,967 cases; 48,168 controls) in a summary statistics MR approach. RESULTS:The new genetic score for 25-OHD was strongly associated with measured plasma 25-OHD levels in 2821 healthy Scottish controls (P?=?1.47?×?10-?11), improving upon previous genetic instruments (F-statistic 46.0 vs. 13.0). However, individual-level MR revealed no association between 25-OHD score and CRC risk (OR 1.03/unit log-transformed circulating 25-OHD, 95% CI 0.51-2.07, P?=?0.93). Similarly, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between 25-OHD and CRC risk using summary statistics MR analysis (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.69-1.19, P?=?0.48). CONCLUSIONS:Despite the scale of this study and employing an improved score capturing more of the genetic contribution to circulating 25-OHD, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between circulating 25-OHD and CRC risk. Although the magnitude of effect for vitamin D suggested by observational studies can confidently be excluded, smaller effects sizes and non-linear relationships remain plausible. Circulating vitamin D may be a CRC biomarker, but a causal effect on CRC risk remains unproven.
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Project description:BackgroundModerately raised serum bilirubin levels are associated with lower rates of lung cancer, particularly among smokers. It is not known whether these relationships reflect antioxidant properties or residual confounding.ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate potential causal relationships between serum total bilirubin and lung cancer incidence using one-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) and UK Biobank.MethodsWe instrumented serum total bilirubin level using two variants (rs887829 and rs4149056) that together explain ~40% of population-level variability and are linked to mild hereditary hyperbilirubinaemia. Lung cancer events occurring after recruitment were identified from national cancer registries. Observational and genetically instrumented incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences per 10 000 person-years (PYs) by smoking status were estimated.ResultsWe included 377 294 participants (median bilirubin 8.1 μmol/L (IQR 6.4-10.4)) and 2002 lung cancer events in the MR analysis. Each 5 μmol/L increase in observed bilirubin levels was associated with 1.2/10 000 PY decrease (95% CI 0.7 to 1.8) in lung cancer incidence. The corresponding MR estimate was a decrease of 0.8/10 000 PY (95% CI 0.1 to 1.4). The strongest associations were in current smokers where a 5 μmol/L increase in observed bilirubin levels was associated with a decrease in lung cancer incidence of 10.2/10 000 PY (95% CI 5.5 to 15.0) and an MR estimate of 6.4/10 000 PY (95% CI 1.4 to 11.5). For heavy smokers (≥20/day), the MR estimate was an incidence decrease of 23.1/10 000 PY (95% CI 7.3 to 38.9). There was no association in never smokers and no mediation by respiratory function.ConclusionGenetically raised serum bilirubin, common across human populations, may protect people exposed to high levels of smoke oxidants against lung cancers.
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Project description:Observational studies suggest that higher birth weight (BW) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer in adult life. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to assess whether this association is causal. Sixty independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) known to be associated at P?<?5?×?10-8 with BW were used to construct (1) a 41-SNP instrumental variable (IV) for univariable MR after removing SNPs with pleiotropic associations with other breast cancer risk factors and (2) a 49-SNP IV for multivariable MR after filtering SNPs for data availability. BW predicted by the 41-SNP IV was not associated with overall breast cancer risk in inverse-variance weighted (IVW) univariable MR analysis of genetic association data from 122,977 breast cancer cases and 105,974 controls (odds ratio?=?0.86 per 500 g higher BW; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.01). Sensitivity analyses using four alternative methods and three alternative IVs, including an IV with 59 of the 60 BW-associated SNPs, yielded similar results. Multivariable MR adjusting for the effects of the 49-SNP IV on birth length, adult height, adult body mass index, age at menarche, and age at menopause using IVW and MR-Egger methods provided estimates consistent with univariable analyses. Results were also similar when all analyses were repeated after restricting to estrogen receptor-positive or -negative breast cancer cases. Point estimates of the odds ratios from most analyses performed indicated an inverse relationship between genetically-predicted BW and breast cancer, but we are unable to rule out an association between the non-genetically-determined component of BW and breast cancer. Thus, genetically-predicted higher BW was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in adult life in our MR study.
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Project description:While elevated blood cholesterol has been associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in observational studies, causality is uncertain. Here we apply a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to examine the potential causal relationship between lipid traits and CRC risk. We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with blood levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) as instrumental variables (IV). We calculated MR estimates for each risk factor with CRC using SNP-CRC associations from 9,254 cases and 18,386 controls. Genetically predicted higher TC was associated with an elevated risk of CRC (odds ratios (OR) per unit SD increase?=?1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-1.79, p = 1.68 × 10-4 ). The pooled ORs for LDL, HDL, and TG were 1.05 (95% CI: 0.92-1.18, p = 0.49), 0.94 (95% CI: 0.84-1.05, p = 0.27), and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85-1.12, p = 0.75) respectively. A genetic risk score for 3-hydoxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) to mimic the effects of statin therapy was associated with a reduced CRC risk (OR?=?0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.99, p = 0.046). This study supports a causal relationship between higher levels of TC with CRC risk, and a further rationale for implementing public health strategies to reduce the prevalence of hyperlipidaemia.
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Project description:OBJECTIVE:A number of epidemiological studies have reported that decreased serum bilirubin, an endogenous antioxidant, is associated with cardiovascular disease. However, previous Mendelian randomization analyses conducted using a single sample have shown no evidence of association. Approach and Results: A 2-sample summary Mendelian randomization study was performed by obtaining exposure and outcome data from separate nonoverlapping samples. We utilized data from the KoGES (Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study; n=25?406) and KCPS-II (Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II; n=14?541) biobank for serum bilirubin and stroke, respectively. Using KoGES, a total of 1784 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with serum bilirubin levels were discovered using a genome-wide significance threshold (P<5×10-8), of which 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms were identified as independent (R2<0.005) and adopted as genetic instruments. From KCPS-II, total and ischemic stroke cases were identified (n=1489 and n=686), with 12?366 acting as controls. Various 2-sample summary Mendelian randomization methods were employed, with Mendelian randomization estimates showing an inverse causal association between serum bilirubin levels and total stroke risk (odds ratio, 0.481 [95% CI, 0.234-0.988]; P=0.046). This association increased in magnitude when restricting the analysis to ischemic stroke cases (odds ratio, 0.302 [95% CI, 0.105-0.868]; P=0.026). CONCLUSIONS:Our findings provide evidence of significant causal relationship between high levels of bilirubin and decreased stroke risk in Korean population in agreement with observational approaches. This highlights the potential for bilirubin to serve as a therapeutic target for oxidative stress-related diseases such as stroke and suggests that previous findings were not a consequence of unmeasured confounding.
| S-EPMC6975519 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundObservational studies have associated adiposity with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, such studies do not establish a causal relationship. To minimise bias from confounding we performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to examine the relationship between adiposity and CRC.MethodsWe used SNPs associated with adult body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), childhood obesity and birth weight as instrumental variables in a MR analysis of 9254 CRC cases and 18 386 controls.ResultsIn the MR analysis, the odds ratios (ORs) of CRC risk per unit increase in BMI, WHR and childhood obesity were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.02-1.49, P=0.033), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.08-2.34, P=0.019) and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.13, P=0.018), respectively. There was no evidence for association between birth weight and CRC (OR=1.22, 95% CI: 0.89-1.67, P=0.22). Combining these data with a concurrent MR-based analysis for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (totalling to 18 190 cases, 27 617 controls) provided increased support, ORs for BMI and WHR were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.10-1.44, P=7.7 × 10(-4)) and 1.40 (95% CI: 1.14-1.72, P=1.2 × 10(-3)), respectively.ConclusionsThese data provide further evidence for a strong causal relationship between adiposity and the risk of developing CRC highlighting the urgent need for prevention and treatment of adiposity.
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Project description:BackgroundObservational studies have shown that serum magnesium levels are inversely associated with risk of cardiovascular disease, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We conducted a Mendelian randomisation study to investigate whether serum magnesium levels may be causally associated with coronary artery disease (CAD).MethodsThis Mendelian randomisation analysis is based on summary-level data from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium's 1000 Genomes-based genome-wide association meta-analysis of 48 studies with a total of 60,801 CAD cases and 123,504 non-cases. Six single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with serum magnesium levels at genome-wide significance were used as instrumental variables.ResultsA genetic predisposition to higher serum magnesium levels was inversely associated with CAD. In conventional Mendelian randomisation analysis, the odds ratio of CAD was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 0.99; P = 0.03) per 0.1-mmol/L (about 1 standard deviation) increase in genetically predicted serum magnesium levels. Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses using the weighted median and heterogeneity-penalised model averaging methods, with odds ratios of 0.84 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.98; P = 0.03) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.96; P = 0.02), respectively.ConclusionsThis study based on genetics provides evidence that serum magnesium levels are inversely associated with risk of CAD. Randomised controlled trials elucidating whether magnesium supplementation lowers the risk of CAD, preferably in a setting at higher risk of hypomagnesaemia, are warranted.
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Project description:BackgroundThe etiological basis of glioma is poorly understood. We have used genetic markers in a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to examine if lifestyle, cardiometabolic, and inflammatory factors influence the risk of glioma. This methodology reduces bias from confounding and is not affected by reverse causation.MethodsWe identified genetic instruments for 37 potentially modifiable risk factors and evaluated their association with glioma risk using data from a genome-wide association study of 12 488 glioma patients and 18 169 controls. We used the estimated odds ratio of glioma associated with each of the genetically defined traits to infer evidence for a causal relationship with the following exposures:Lifestyle and dietary factors-height, plasma insulin-like growth factor 1, blood carnitine, blood methionine, blood selenium, blood zinc, circulating adiponectin, circulating carotenoids, iron status, serum calcium, vitamins (A1, B12, B6, E, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D), fatty acid levels (monounsaturated, omega-3, and omega-6) and circulating fetuin-A;Cardiometabolic factors-birth weight, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, total triglycerides, basal metabolic rate, body fat percentage, body mass index, fasting glucose, fasting proinsulin, glycated hemoglobin levels, diastolic and systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio; andInflammatory factors- C-reactive protein, plasma interleukin-6 receptor subunit alpha and serum immunoglobulin E.ResultsAfter correction for the testing of multiple potential risk factors and excluding associations driven by one single nucleotide polymorphism, no significant association with glioma risk was observed (ie, PCorrected > 0.05).ConclusionsThis study did not provide evidence supporting any of the 37 factors examined as having a significant influence on glioma risk.
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