Development of Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Smoking Cessation Outcome.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lai CC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7967540 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Machine Learning (ML) has been proposed for tissue fate prediction after acute ischemic stroke (AIS), with the aim to help treatment decision and patient management. We compared three different ML models to the clinical method based on diffusion-perfusion thresholding for the voxel-based prediction of final infarct, using a large MRI dataset obtained in a cohort of AIS patients prior to recanalization treatment. Baseline MRI (MRI0), including diffusion-weighted sequence (DWI) and Tmax maps from perfusion-weighted sequence, and 24-hr follow-up MRI (MRI24h) were retrospectively collected in consecutive 394 patients AIS patients (median age = 70 years; final infarct volume = 28mL). Manually segmented DWI24h lesion was considered the final infarct. Gradient Boosting, Random Forests and U-Net were trained using DWI, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and Tmax maps on MRI0 as inputs to predict final infarct. Tissue outcome predictions were compared to final infarct using Dice score. Gradient Boosting had significantly better predictive performance (median [IQR] Dice Score as for median age, maybe you can replace the comma with an equal sign for consistency 0.53 [0.29-0.68]) than U-Net (0.48 [0.18-0.68]), Random Forests (0.51 [0.27-0.66]), and clinical thresholding method (0.45 [0.25-0.62]) (P < 0.001). In this benchmark of ML models for tissue outcome prediction in AIS, Gradient Boosting outperformed other ML models and clinical thresholding method and is thus promising for future decision-making.
| S-EPMC8756479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere are many models for predicting diabetes mellitus (DM), but their clinical implication remains vague. Therefore, we aimed to create various DM prediction models using easily accessible health screening test parameters.MethodsTwo sets of variables were used to develop eight DM prediction models. One set comprised 62 easily accessible examination results of commonly used variables from a tertiary university hospital. The second set comprised 27 of the 62 variables included in the national routine health checkups. Gradient boosting and random forest algorithms were used to develop the models. Internal validation was performed using the stratified 10-fold cross-validation method.ResultsThe area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) for the 62-variable DM model making 12-month predictions for subjects without diabetes was the largest (0.928) among those of the eight DM prediction models. The ROC-AUC dropped by more than 0.04 when training with the simplified 27-variable set but still showed fairly good performance with ROC-AUCs between 0.842 and 0.880. The accuracy was up to 11.5% higher (from 0.807 to 0.714) when fasting glucose was included.ConclusionWe created easily applicable diabetes prediction models that deliver good performance using parameters commonly assessed during tertiary university hospital and national routine health checkups. We plan to perform prospective external validation, hoping that the developed DM prediction models will be widely used in clinical practice.
| S-EPMC9353566 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsMost cigarette smokers want to quit smoking and more than half make an attempt every year, but less than 10% remain abstinent for at least 6 months. Evidence-based tobacco use treatment improves the likelihood of quitting, but more than two-thirds of individuals relapse when provided even the most robust treatments. Identifying for whom treatment is effective will improve the success of our treatments and perhaps identify strategies for improving current approaches.MethodsTwo cohorts (training: N = 90, validation: N = 71) of cigarette smokers enrolled in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Generalized estimating equations were used to identify baseline predictors of outcome, as defined by breath carbon monoxide and urine cotinine. Significant measures were entered as candidate variables to predict quit status. The resulting decision trees were used to predict cessation outcomes in a validation cohort.ResultsIn the training cohort, the decision trees significantly improved on chance classification of smoking status following treatment and at 6-month follow-up. The first split of all decision trees, which was delay discounting, significantly improved on chance classification rates in both the training and validation cohort. Delay discounting emerged as the single best predictor of group CBT treatment response with an average baseline discount rate of ln(k) = -7.1, correctly predicting smoking status of 80% of participants at posttreatment and 81% of participants at follow-up.ConclusionsThis study provides a first step toward personalized care for smoking cessation though future work is needed to identify individuals that are likely to be successful in treatments beyond group CBT.ImplicationsThis study provides a first step toward personalized care for smoking cessation. Using a novel machine-learning approach, baseline measures of clinical and executive functioning are used to predict smoking cessation outcomes following group CBT. A decision point is recommended for the single best predictor of treatment outcomes, delay discounting, to inform future research or clinical practice in an effort to better allocate patients to treatments that are likely to work.
| S-EPMC7297111 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Prognostication is an essential tool for risk adjustment and decision making in the intensive care unit (ICU). Research into prognostication in ICU has so far been limited to data from admission or the first 24 hours. Most ICU admissions last longer than this, decisions are made throughout an admission, and some admissions are explicitly intended as time-limited prognostic trials. Despite this, temporal changes in prognostic ability during ICU admission has received little attention to date. Current predictive models, in the form of prognostic clinical tools, are typically derived from linear models and do not explicitly handle incremental information from trends. Machine learning (ML) allows predictive models to be developed which use non-linear predictors and complex interactions between variables, thus allowing incorporation of trends in measured variables over time; this has made it possible to investigate prognosis throughout an admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This study uses ML to assess the predictability of ICU mortality as a function of time. Logistic regression against physiological data alone outperformed APACHE-II and demonstrated several important interactions including between lactate & noradrenaline dose, between lactate & MAP, and between age & MAP consistent with the current sepsis definitions. ML models consistently outperformed logistic regression with Deep Learning giving the best results. Predictive power was maximal on the second day and was further improved by incorporating trend data. Using a limited range of physiological and demographic variables, the best machine learning model on the first day showed an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 (σ = 0.008), compared to 0.846 (σ = 0.010) for a logistic regression from the same predictors and 0.836 (σ = 0.007) for a logistic regression based on the APACHE-II score. Adding information gathered on the second day of admission improved the maximum AUC to 0.895 (σ = 0.008). Beyond the second day, predictive ability declined. CONCLUSION:This has implications for decision making in intensive care and provides a justification for time-limited trials of ICU therapy; the assessment of prognosis over more than one day may be a valuable strategy as new information on the second day helps to differentiate outcomes. New ML models based on trend data beyond the first day could greatly improve upon current risk stratification tools.
| S-EPMC6241126 | biostudies-other
Project description:The decision on when it is appropriate to stop antimicrobial treatment in an individual patient is complex and under-researched. Ceasing too early can drive treatment failure, while excessive treatment risks adverse events. Under- and over-treatment can promote the development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). We extracted routinely collected electronic health record data from the MIMIC-IV database for 18,988 patients (22,845 unique stays) who received intravenous antibiotic treatment during an intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A model was developed that utilises a recurrent neural network autoencoder and a synthetic control-based approach to estimate patients' ICU length of stay (LOS) and mortality outcomes for any given day, under the alternative scenarios of if they were to stop vs. continue antibiotic treatment. Control days where our model should reproduce labels demonstrated minimal difference for both stopping and continuing scenarios indicating estimations are reliable (LOS results of 0.24 and 0.42 days mean delta, 1.93 and 3.76 root mean squared error, respectively). Meanwhile, impact days where we assess the potential effect of the unobserved scenario showed that stopping antibiotic therapy earlier had a statistically significant shorter LOS (mean reduction 2.71 days, p -value <0.01). No impact on mortality was observed. In summary, we have developed a model to reliably estimate patient outcomes under the contrasting scenarios of stopping or continuing antibiotic treatment. Retrospective results are in line with previous clinical studies that demonstrate shorter antibiotic treatment durations are often non-inferior. With additional development into a clinical decision support system, this could be used to support individualised antimicrobial cessation decision-making, reduce the excessive use of antibiotics, and address the problem of AMR.
| S-EPMC9719971 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gene expression profiles were generated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. Samples 1-176 were used in another study, GEO Series GSE22820, and form the training data set in this study. Sample numbers 200-222 form a validation set. This data is used to model a machine learning classifier for Estrogen Receptor Status. RNA was isolated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. A machine learning classifier was built to predict ER status using only three gene features.
2013-01-01 | E-GEOD-29210 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Predictive models based on gene expression are already a part of medical decision making for selected situations such as early breast cancer treatment. Most of these models are based on measures that do not capture critical aspects of gene splicing, butwith RNA sequencing it is possible to capture some of these aspects of alternative splicing and use them to improve clinical predictions. Building on previous models to predict cigarette smoking status, we show that measures of alternative splicing significantly improve the accuracy of these predictive models.
2020-12-31 | GSE158699 | GEO
Project description:BACKGROUND:Central precocious puberty (CPP) in girls seriously affects their physical and mental development in childhood. The method of diagnosis-gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH)-stimulation test or GnRH analogue (GnRHa)-stimulation test-is expensive and makes patients uncomfortable due to the need for repeated blood sampling. OBJECTIVE:We aimed to combine multiple CPP-related features and construct machine learning models to predict response to the GnRHa-stimulation test. METHODS:In this retrospective study, we analyzed clinical and laboratory data of 1757 girls who underwent a GnRHa test in order to develop XGBoost and random forest classifiers for prediction of response to the GnRHa test. The local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) algorithm was used with the black-box classifiers to increase their interpretability. We measured sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of the models. RESULTS:Both the XGBoost and random forest models achieved good performance in distinguishing between positive and negative responses, with the AUC ranging from 0.88 to 0.90, sensitivity ranging from 77.91% to 77.94%, and specificity ranging from 84.32% to 87.66%. Basal serum luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, and insulin-like growth factor-I levels were found to be the three most important factors. In the interpretable models of LIME, the abovementioned variables made high contributions to the prediction probability. CONCLUSIONS:The prediction models we developed can help diagnose CPP and may be used as a prescreening tool before the GnRHa-stimulation test.
| S-EPMC6390190 | biostudies-other
Project description:This systematic review aims to characterize the utility of machine learning to identify the predictors of smoking cessation outcomes and identify the machine learning methods applied in this area. In the current study, multiple searches occurred through December 9, 2022 in MEDLINE, Science Citation Index, Social Science Citation Index, EMBASE, CINAHL Plus, APA PsycINFO, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the IEEE Xplore were performed. Inclusion criteria included various machine learning techniques, studies reporting cigarette smoking cessation outcomes (smoking status and the number of cigarettes), and various experimental designs (e.g., cross-sectional and longitudinal). Predictors of smoking cessation outcomes were assessed, including behavioral markers, biomarkers, and other predictors. Our systematic review identified 12 papers fitting our inclusion criteria. In this review, we identified gaps in knowledge and innovation opportunities for machine learning research in the field of smoking cessation.
| S-EPMC10194042 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and Purpose: Stroke-related functional risk scores are used to predict patients' functional outcomes following a stroke event. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of machine-learning algorithms for predicting functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke patients after endovascular treatment. Methods: Data were from the Precise and Rapid Assessment of Collaterals with Multi-phase CT Angiography (PROVE-IT), an observational study of 614 ischemic stroke patients. Regression and machine learning models, including random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), C5.0 decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boost machine (ABM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, and logistic regression models were used to train and predict the 90-day functional impairment risk, which is measured by the modified Rankin scale (mRS) score > 2. The models were internally validated using split-sample cross-validation and externally validated in the INTERRSeCT cohort study. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and Brier score. Results: Of the 614 patients included in the training data, 249 (40.5%) had 90-day functional impairment (i.e., mRS > 2). The median and interquartile range (IQR) of age and baseline NIHSS scores were 77 years (IQR = 69-83) and 17 (IQR = 11-22), respectively. Both logistic regression and machine learning models had comparable predictive accuracy when validated internally (AUC range = [0.65-0.72]; MCC range = [0.29-0.42]) and externally (AUC range = [0.66-0.71]; MCC range = [0.34-0.42]). Conclusions: Machine learning algorithms and logistic regression had comparable predictive accuracy for predicting stroke-related functional impairment in stroke patients.
| S-EPMC7479334 | biostudies-literature