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Pattern Recognition of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Implications for Disease Mitigation.

ABSTRACT: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic presents a severe threat to human health worldwide. The United States (US) has the highest number of reported COVID-19 cases, and over 16 million people were infected up to the 12 December 2020. To better understand and mitigate the spread of the disease, it is necessary to recognize the pattern of the outbreak. In this study, we explored the patterns of COVID-19 cases in the US from 1 March to 12 December 2020. The county-level cases and rates of the disease were mapped using a geographic information system (GIS). The overall trend of the disease in the US, as well as in each of its 50 individual states, were analyzed by the seasonal-trend decomposition. The disease curve in each state was further examined using K-means clustering and principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that three clusters were observed in the early phase (1 March-31 May). New York has a unique pattern of the disease curve and was assigned one cluster alone. Two clusters were observed in the middle phase (1 June-30 September). California, Texas and Florida were assigned in the same cluster, which has the pattern different from the remaining states. In the late phase (1 October-12 December), California has a unique pattern of the disease curve and was assigned a cluster alone. In the whole period, three clusters were observed. California, Texas and Florida still have similar patterns and were assigned in the same cluster. The trend analysis consolidated the patterns identified from the cluster analysis. The results from this study provide insight in making disease control and mitigation strategies.

SUBMITTER: Wu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7967616 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the direct toll of COVID-19 in the United States has been substantial, concerns have also arisen about the indirect effects of the pandemic. Hospitalizations for acute cardiovascular conditions have declined, raising concern that patients may be avoiding hospitals because of fear of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome- coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Other factors, including strain on health care systems, may also have had an indirect toll.ObjectivesThis investigation aimed to evaluate whether population-level deaths due to cardiovascular causes increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThe authors conducted an observational cohort study using data from the National Center for Health Statistics to evaluate the rate of deaths due to cardiovascular causes after the onset of the pandemic in the United States, from March 18, 2020, to June 2, 2020, relative to the period immediately preceding the pandemic (January 1, 2020 to March 17, 2020). Changes in deaths were compared with the same periods in the previous year.ResultsThere were 397,042 cardiovascular deaths from January 1, 2020, to June 2, 2020. Deaths caused by ischemic heart disease increased nationally after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, compared with changes over the same period in 2019 (ratio of the relative change in deaths per 100,000 in 2020 vs. 2019: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.18). An increase was also observed for deaths caused by hypertensive disease (1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.26), but not for heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, or other diseases of the circulatory system. New York City experienced a large relative increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease (2.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.39 to 4.09) and hypertensive diseases (2.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.52 to 4.56) during the pandemic. More modest increases in deaths caused by these conditions occurred in the remainder of New York State, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois but not in Massachusetts or Louisiana.ConclusionsThere was an increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease and hypertensive diseases in some regions of the United States during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have had an indirect toll on patients with cardiovascular disease.

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Pattern Recognition of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Implications for Disease Mitigation.

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