Dataset Information

Forecasting seizure risk in adults with focal epilepsy: a development and validation study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

People with epilepsy are burdened with the apparent unpredictability of seizures. In the past decade, converging evidence from studies using chronic EEG (cEEG) revealed that epileptic brain activity shows robust cycles, operating over hours (circadian) and days (multidien). We hypothesised that these cycles can be leveraged to estimate future seizure probability, and we tested the feasibility of forecasting seizures days in advance.

Methods

We did a feasibility study in distinct development and validation cohorts, involving retrospective analysis of cEEG data recorded with an implanted device in adults (age ?18 years) with drug-resistant focal epilepsy followed at 35 centres across the USA between Jan 19, 2004, and May 18, 2018. Patients were required to have had 20 or more electrographic seizures (development cohort) or self-reported seizures (validation cohort). In all patients, the device recorded interictal epileptiform activity (IEA; ?6 months of continuous hourly data), the fluctuations in which helped estimate varying seizure risk. Point process statistical models trained on initial portions of each patient's cEEG data (both cohorts) generated forecasts of seizure probability that were tested on subsequent unseen seizure data and evaluated against surrogate time-series. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients with forecasts showing improvement over chance (IoC).

Findings

We screened 72 and 256 patients, and included 18 and 157 patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models incorporating information about multidien IEA cycles alone generated daily seizure forecasts for the next calendar day with IoC in 15 (83%) patients in the development cohort and 103 (66%) patients in the validation cohort. The forecasting horizon could be extended up to 3 days while maintaining IoC in two (11%) of 18 patients and 61 (39%) of 157 patients. Forecasts with a shorter horizon of 1 h, possible only for electrographic seizures in the development cohort, showed IoC in all 18 (100%) patients.

Interpretation

This study shows that seizure probability can be forecasted days in advance by leveraging multidien IEA cycles recorded with an implanted device. This study will serve as a basis for prospective clinical trials to establish how people with epilepsy might benefit from seizure forecasting over long horizons.

Funding

None. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

SUBMITTER: Proix T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7968722 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Forecasting seizure risk in adults with focal epilepsy: a development and validation study.

Proix Timothée T Truccolo Wilson W Leguia Marc G MG Tcheng Thomas K TK King-Stephens David D Rao Vikram R VR Baud Maxime O MO

The Lancet. Neurology 20201217 2

<h4>Background</h4>People with epilepsy are burdened with the apparent unpredictability of seizures. In the past decade, converging evidence from studies using chronic EEG (cEEG) revealed that epileptic brain activity shows robust cycles, operating over hours (circadian) and days (multidien). We hypothesised that these cycles can be leveraged to estimate future seizure probability, and we tested the feasibility of forecasting seizures days in advance.<h4>Methods</h4>We did a feasibility study in ...[more]

PMID: 33341149

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Project description:SEE MORMANN AND ANDRZEJAK DOI101093/BRAIN/AWW091 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS ARTICLE : Accurate forecasting of epileptic seizures has the potential to transform clinical epilepsy care. However, progress toward reliable seizure forecasting has been hampered by lack of open access to long duration recordings with an adequate number of seizures for investigators to rigorously compare algorithms and results. A seizure forecasting competition was conducted on kaggle.com using open access chronic ambulatory intracranial electroencephalography from five canines with naturally occurring epilepsy and two humans undergoing prolonged wide bandwidth intracranial electroencephalographic monitoring. Data were provided to participants as 10-min interictal and preictal clips, with approximately half of the 60 GB data bundle labelled (interictal/preictal) for algorithm training and half unlabelled for evaluation. The contestants developed custom algorithms and uploaded their classifications (interictal/preictal) for the unknown testing data, and a randomly selected 40% of data segments were scored and results broadcasted on a public leader board. The contest ran from August to November 2014, and 654 participants submitted 17 856 classifications of the unlabelled test data. The top performing entry scored 0.84 area under the classification curve. Following the contest, additional held-out unlabelled data clips were provided to the top 10 participants and they submitted classifications for the new unseen data. The resulting area under the classification curves were well above chance forecasting, but did show a mean 6.54 ± 2.45% (min, max: 0.30, 20.2) decline in performance. The kaggle.com model using open access data and algorithms generated reproducible research that advanced seizure forecasting. The overall performance from multiple contestants on unseen data was better than a random predictor, and demonstrates the feasibility of seizure forecasting in canine and human epilepsy.media-1vid110.1093/brain/aww045_video_abstractaww045_video_abstract.

Project description:ObjectiveSeizure outcomes after brain surgery for drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) are very heterogeneous and difficult to predict with models utilizing the current clinical, imaging, and electrophysiological variables. In this pilot study, we investigated whether genetic and molecular biomarkers (e.g., genomic, transcriptomic) can provide additional insight into differential response to surgery.MethodsPost-operative seizure-outcomes were collected at last follow-up (>6 months) for 201 adult patients with DRE who underwent surgery between 2004 and 2020. Resected tissue was sent for miRNA sequencing (n = 132) and mRNA sequencing (n = 135). Following the selection of 10 genes (SCN1A, NBEA, PTEN, GABRA1, LGL1, DEPDC5, IL1A, ABCB1, C3, CALHM1), we investigated SNPs in those 10 genes from previously acquired exome sequencing data (n = 106). Logistic regression was performed to test for associations between individual features (mRNAs, miRNAs, and SNPs) and post-operative seizure-outcome with an exploratory FDR P < 0.25 as the threshold for significance. Post-operative time-to-seizure analyses were performed for each SNP using a Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsThe majority of patients (83%) had temporal lobe epilepsy. Mean age at surgery was 38.3 years, and 56% were female. Three SNPs (rs10276036, rs11975994, rs1128503) in multi-drug resistance gene, ABCB1, were associated with post-operative seizure outcomes. Patients with alternate alleles in ABCB1 were more likely to be seizure-free at last follow-up (52-56% reduction in seizure recurrence; FDR P = 0.24). All three SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium and highly correlated with each other. Median post-operative time-to-seizure was 63 months for patients with 2 alternate alleles, 24-33 months with 1 alternate allele, and 10-11 months with 0 alternate alleles. These SNPs improved outcome prediction beyond MRI and sex alone. No independent miRNAs or mRNAs were significantly associated with seizure-outcome (P > 0.05). However, pathway analysis identified "cancer drug resistance by drug efflux" (mir-154 and mir-379) as enriched (P = 0.02), supporting the role of drug response genes in post-operative seizure recurrence.SignificanceABCB1 may have a role in epileptogenesis and surgery outcomes independent of its drug efflux activity necessitating further investigation. SNPs in ABCB1 may serve as independent predictors of post-operative outcome.

Dataset Information

Forecasting seizure risk in adults with focal epilepsy: a development and validation study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Forecasting seizure risk in adults with focal epilepsy: a development and validation study.

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