Dataset Information

Phylogenomic tracing of asymptomatic transmission in a COVID-19 outbreak.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 has caused over 100 million deaths and continues to spread rapidly around the world. Asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is the Achilles' heel of COVID-19 public health control measures. Phylogenomic data on SARS-CoV-2 could provide more direct information about asymptomatic transmission. In this study, using a novel MINERVA sequencing technology, we traced asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 patients in Beijing, China. One hundred and seventy-eight close contacts were quarantined, and 14 COVID-19 patients were laboratory confirmed by RT-PCR. We provide direct phylogenomic evidence of asymptomatic transmission by constructing the median joining network in the cluster. These data could help us to determine whether the current symptom-based screening should cover asymptomatic persons.

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7982642 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Phylogenomic tracing of asymptomatic transmission in a COVID-19 outbreak.

Zhang Ju J Ding Nan N Song Yangzi Y Song Rui R Pan Yang Y Wang Linghang L Yan Shuo S Wang Qi Q Ma Shanfang S Wei Lirong L Yu Fengting F Lu Lianhe L Zhang Fujie F Chen Chen C Zeng Hui H

Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) 20210322 2

SARS-CoV-2 has caused over 100 million deaths and continues to spread rapidly around the world. Asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is the Achilles' heel of COVID-19 public health control measures. Phylogenomic data on SARS-CoV-2 could provide more direct information about asymptomatic transmission. In this study, using a novel MINERVA sequencing technology, we traced asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 patients in Beijing, China. One hundred and seventy-eight close contacts were quarantin ...[more]

PMID: 33778799

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Project description:Understanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential of COVID-19. However, at this stage, the effect of the asymptomatic population, its size, and its outbreak dynamics remain largely unknown. Here we use reported symptomatic case data in conjunction with antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Our model computes, in real time, the time-varying contact rate of the outbreak, and projects the temporal evolution and credible intervals of the effective reproduction number and the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and recovered populations. Our study quantifies the sensitivity of the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 to three parameters: the effective reproduction number, the ratio between the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations, and the infectious periods of both groups For nine distinct locations, our model estimates the fraction of the population that has been infected and recovered by Jun 15, 2020 to 24.15% (95% CI: 20.48%-28.14%) for Heinsberg (NRW, Germany), 2.40% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.76%) for Ada County (ID, USA), 46.19% (95% CI: 45.81%-46.60%) for New York City (NY, USA), 11.26% (95% CI: 7.21%-16.03%) for Santa Clara County (CA, USA), 3.09% (95% CI: 2.27%-4.03%) for Denmark, 12.35% (95% CI: 10.03%-15.18%) for Geneva Canton (Switzerland), 5.24% (95% CI: 4.84%-5.70%) for the Netherlands, 1.53% (95% CI: 0.76%-2.62%) for Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and 5.32% (95% CI: 4.77%-5.93%) for Belgium. Our method traces the initial outbreak date in Santa Clara County back to January 20, 2020 (95% CI: December 29, 2019 - February 13, 2020). Our results could significantly change our understanding and management of the COVID-19 pandemic: A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging. Instead, managing community transmission through increasing population awareness, promoting physical distancing, and encouraging behavioral changes could become more relevant.

Project description:Simultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 and other pathogens. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase a smaller fraction of cases' contacts can be traced, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between increasing cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using deterministic and stochastic compartmental models of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increased sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt initially increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections may be more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy decreased sharply with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases. They also highlight the synergistic value of high capacity, easy access testing and rapid turn-around of testing results, and outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic cases to be tested immediately after symptom onset.

Dataset Information

Phylogenomic tracing of asymptomatic transmission in a COVID-19 outbreak.

Publications

Phylogenomic tracing of asymptomatic transmission in a COVID-19 outbreak.

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