Latitudinal gradients in population growth do not reflect demographic responses to climate.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Peterson ML
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7988552 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The trend for increasing biodiversity from the poles to the tropics is one of the best-known patterns in nature. This latitudinal biodiversity gradient has primarily been documented so far with extant species as the measure of biodiversity. Here, we evaluate the global pattern in biodiversity across latitudes based on the magnitude of genetic population divergence within plant species, using a robust spatial design to compare published allozyme datasets. Like the pattern of plant species richness across latitudes, we expected the divergence among populations of current plant species would have a similar pattern and direction. We found that lower latitudinal populations showed greater genetic differentiation within species after controlling for geographical distance. Our analyses are consistent with previous population-level studies in animals, suggesting a high possibility of tropical peaks in speciation rates associated with observed levels of species richness.
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Project description:Winter mortality can strongly affect the population dynamics of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) near poleward range limits. We simulated winter in the lab to test the effects of temperature, salinity, and estuary of origin on blue crab winter mortality over three years using a broad range of crab sizes from both Great South Bay and Chesapeake Bay. We fit accelerated failure time models to our data and to data from prior blue crab winter mortality experiments, illustrating that, in a widely distributed, commercially valuable marine decapod, temperature, salinity, size, estuary of origin, and winter duration were important predictors of winter mortality. Furthermore, our results suggest that extrapolation of a Chesapeake Bay based survivorship model to crabs from New York estuaries yielded poor fits. As such, the severity and duration of winter can impact northern blue crab populations differently along latitudinal gradients. In the context of climate change, future warming could possibility confer a benefit to crab populations near the range edge that are currently limited by temperature-induced winter mortality by shifting their range edge poleward, but care must be taken in generalizing from models that are developed based on populations from one part of the range to populations near the edges, especially for species that occupy large geographical areas.
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Project description:The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.
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Project description:Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change.
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Project description:Knowledge of latitudinal patterns in plant defense and herbivory is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. Using a widely distributed species in East Asia, Quercus variabilis, we aim to reveal defense patterns of trees with respect to ontogeny along latitudinal gradients. Six leaf chemical (total phenolics and total condensed tannin concentrations) and physical (cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin and dry mass concentration) defensive traits as well as leaf herbivory (% leaf area loss) were investigated in natural Chinese cork oak (Q. variabilis) forests across two ontogenetic stages (juvenile and mature trees) along a ~14°-latitudinal gradient. Our results showed that juveniles had higher herbivory values and a higher concentration of leaf chemical defense substances compared with mature trees across the latitudinal gradient. In addition, chemical defense and herbivory in both ontogenetic stages decreased with increasing latitude, which supports the latitudinal herbivory-defense hypothesis and optimal defense theory. The identified trade-offs between chemical and physical defense were primarily determined by environmental variation associated with the latitudinal gradient, with the climatic factors (annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month) largely contributing to the latitudinal defense pattern in both juvenile and mature oak trees.
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Project description:AimThe latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) - in which species richness decreases from the equator toward the poles - is among the most fundamental distributional patterns in ecology. Despite the expectation that the diversity of parasites tracks that of their hosts, available evidence suggests that many parasites exhibit reverse latitudinal gradients or no pattern, yet the rarity of large-scale datasets on host-parasite interactions calls into question the robustness of such trends. Here, we collected parasitological data from a host group of conservation importance - lentic-breeding amphibians - to characterize the form and direction of relationships among latitude, parasite richness, and parasite load.LocationThe contiguous USA.Time period2000 to 2014.Major taxa studiedLentic-breeding frogs and toads and their helminth parasites.MethodsWe collected information on parasite richness and infection load for 846 amphibian populations representing 31 species. We combined these data with environmental and biological data to test for LDGs and potential mechanisms.ResultsBoth parasite richness and abundance increased across 20 degrees of latitude - a reverse LDG. For parasite richness, this pattern was partially explained by latitudinal increases in wetland area, landcover diversity, and the richness of waterbirds - which function as definitive hosts for many amphibian parasites. Host body size also correlated positively with latitude and helminth richness, potentially reflecting increased habitat availability, greater host longevity, or a persistent phylogenetic signal. Parasite abundance associated positively with wetland area and landcover diversity, but negatively with amphibian taxonomic richness. Longitude exhibited non-linear relationships with parasite abundance and richness, which we suggest stem from large-scale variation in host availability (e.g., migratory bird flyways).Main conclusionsWith growing interest in the distribution of parasites and pathogens, these results highlight the importance of inverse latitudinal gradients while emphasizing the explanatory influence of host body size, habitat availability, and host diversity.
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Project description:The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modeled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change-enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate, and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas. Here, we investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 y of environmental migration in the United States to project the US population distribution of US counties. We find that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6-28 M [5.7-53 M]-5.3 and 18 times the number of migrants (0.4-10 M). We also project significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. As the percentage of the population lost due to climate migration increases, the median age also increases-up to 10+ y older in some highly impacted coastal counties. Additionally, our population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards.
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Project description:The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG)-the pattern of increasing taxonomic richness with decreasing latitude-is prevalent in the structure of the modern biota. However, some freshwater taxa show peak richness at mid-latitudes; for example, extant Testudines (turtles, terrapins and tortoises) exhibit their greatest diversity at 25° N, a pattern sometimes attributed to recent bursts of climatically mediated species diversification. Here, we test whether this pattern also characterizes the Mesozoic distribution of turtles, to determine whether it was established during either their initial diversification or as a more modern phenomenon. Using global occurrence data for non-marine testudinate genera, we find that subsampled richness peaks at palaeolatitudes of 15-30° N in the Jurassic, 30-45° N through the Cretaceous to the Campanian, and from 30° to 60° N in the Maastrichtian. The absence of a significant diversity peak in southern latitudes is consistent with results from climatic models and turtle niche modelling that demonstrate a dearth of suitable turtle habitat in Gondwana during the Jurassic and Late Cretaceous. Our analyses confirm that the modern testudinate LBG has a deep-time origin and further demonstrate that LBGs are not always expressed as a smooth, equator-to-pole distribution.
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Project description:The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture-mark-recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.
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Project description:One of the more vexing issues in ecology is how historical processes affect contemporary patterns of biodiversity. Accordingly, few models have been presented. Two corollary models (centre of origin, time-for-speciation) can be used to make quantitative predictions characterizing the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis and describe diversification as diffusion and subsequent cladogenesis of species away from the place of origin of a higher taxon in the tropics. Predictions derived from such models are: (i) species richness declines toward the periphery of the range of a higher taxon; (ii) taxa are more derived toward the periphery than the centre; (iii) ages of taxa are lower toward the periphery than the centre; and (iv) ages and measures of derivedness are less variable toward the periphery of the range of a higher taxon. I tested these predictions to better understand the formation of one of the most ubiquitous patterns of biodiversity-the latitudinal gradient in species richness. Results indicate well-supported predictions for New World leaf-nosed bats and that diversification has had strong influences on latitudinal gradients of species richness. A better understanding of how evolutionary diversification of taxa contributes to formation of patterns of species richness along environmental gradients is necessary to fully understand spatial variation in biodiversity.
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