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How adequate is measles surveillance in the United States? Investigations of measles-like illness, 2010-2017.

ABSTRACT: Given the availability of an effective and safe vaccine, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that global measles eradication is achievable, and measles elimination goals have since been established as interim steps toward eradication. As part of a strategy to maintain elimination, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and WHO stipulate a minimum annual reporting rate of discarded non-measles cases of ≥2 per 100,000 population, in order to ensure sensitive surveillance and adequate investigative effort. With its effective vaccination program, the United States in 2000 was among the first countries to verify elimination, although subsequently, it has not routinely reported discarded rates. We estimated MLI investigation rates among insured individuals during 2010-2017, using data from the MarketScan® databases. We defined "MLI investigations" as measles serologic testing within 5 days following diagnostic codes for measles-compatible symptoms and conditions. We provide a rationale for pre-specifying three subgroups for analysis: children aged ≤15 years; males aged 16-22 years excluding data from summer months; and males aged ≥23 years. MLI investigation rates ranged from 6.6─26.4 per 100,000, remaining stable over time except during the 2015 measles outbreaks when rates increased, particularly among young children. In addition to high vaccine uptake, measles elimination requires ongoing vigilance by clinicians and high-quality, case-based surveillance. Estimated rates of MLI investigations in this U.S. population suggesting that the quality of measles surveillance is sufficiently sensitive to detect endemic measles circulation if it were to be occurring.

SUBMITTER: McKay SL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7993117 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Measles incidence in the United States has grown dramatically, as vaccination rates are declining and transmission internationally is on the rise. Because imported cases are necessary drivers of outbreaks in non-endemic settings, predicting measles outbreaks in the US depends on predicting imported cases. To assess the predictability of imported measles cases, we performed a regression of imported measles cases in the US against an inflow variable that combines air travel data with international measles surveillance data. To understand the contribution of each data type to these predictions, we repeated the regression analysis with alternative versions of the inflow variable that replaced each data type with averaged values and with versions of the inflow variable that used modeled inputs. We assessed the performance of these regression models using correlation, coverage probability, and area under the curve statistics, including with resampling and cross-validation. Our regression model had good predictive ability with respect to the presence or absence of imported cases in a given state in a given year (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.78) and the magnitude of imported cases (Pearson correlation = 0.84). By comparing alternative versions of the inflow variable averaging over different inputs, we found that both air travel data and international surveillance data contribute to the model's ability to predict numbers of imported cases and individually contribute to its ability to predict the presence or absence of imported cases. Predicted sources of imported measles cases varied considerably across years and US states, depending on which countries had high measles activity in a given year. Our results emphasize the importance of the relationship between global connectedness and the spread of measles. This study provides a framework for predicting and understanding imported case dynamics that could inform future studies and outbreak prevention efforts.

Project description:BackgroundStreptococcus pyogenes is a major cause of severe, invasive infections in humans. The bacterial pathogen harbors a wide array of virulence factors and exhibits high genomic diversity. Rapid changes of circulating strains in a community are common. Understanding the current prevalence and dynamics of S. pyogenes lineages could inform vaccine development and disease control strategies.MethodsWe used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to characterize all invasive S. pyogenes isolates obtained through the United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention's Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) in 2016 and 2017. We determined the distribution of strain features, including emm type, antibiotic resistance determinants, and selected virulence factors. Changes in strain feature distribution between years 2016 and 2017 were evaluated. Phylogenetic analysis was used to identify expanding lineages within emm type.ResultsSeventy-one emm types were identified from 3873 isolates characterized. The emm types targeted by a 30-valent M protein-based vaccine accounted for 3230 (89%) isolates. The relative frequencies of emm types collected during the 2 years were similar. While all isolates were penicillin-susceptible, erythromycin-resistant isolates increased from 273 (16% of 2016 isolates) to 432 (23% of 2017 isolates), mainly driven by increase of the erm-positive emm types 92 and 83. The prevalence of 24 virulence factors, including 11 streptococcal pyrogenic toxins, ranged from 6 to 90%. In each of three emm types (emm 49, 82, and 92), a subgroup of isolates significantly expanded between 2016 and 2017 compared to isolates outside of the subgroup (P-values < 0.0001). Specific genomic sequence changes were associated with these expanded lineages.ConclusionsWhile the overall population structure of invasive S. pyogenes isolates in the United States remained stable, some lineages, including several that were antibiotic-resistant, increased between 2016 and 2017. Continued genomic surveillance can help monitor and characterize bacterial features associated with emerging strains from invasive infections.

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How adequate is measles surveillance in the United States? Investigations of measles-like illness, 2010-2017.

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