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Trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality to monitor control policies in a northeastern Brazilian state.

ABSTRACT: Prostate cancer differently affects different regions of the world, displaying higher rates in more developed areas. After the implementation of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, several studies described rising rates globally, but it is possible that indolent lesions are being detected given the lack of changes in mortality data. The Brazilian government recommends against PSA screening in the male population regardless of age, but the Urology Society issued a report recommending that screening should start at 50 years old for certain men and for those aged ≥75 years with a life expectancy exceeding 10 years. In this study, we examined the incidence and mortality rates of invasive prostate cancer over time in the Sergipe state of Brazil. The databases of the Aracaju Cancer Registry and Mortality Information System were used to calculate age-standardized rates for all prostate tumors (International Classification of Diseases 10th edition: C61 and D07.5) in the following age ranges: 20-44, 45-54, and ≥65 years. We identified 3595 cases of cancer, 30 glandular intraepithelial high-grade lesions, and 3269 deaths. Using the Joinpoint Regression Program, we found that the incidence of prostate cancer dramatically increased over time until the mid-2000s for all age groups, after which the rates declined. Prostate cancer mortality rates increased until 2005, followed by a non-significant annual percent change of 22.0 in 2001-2005 and a stable rate thereafter. We noticed that the increases and decreases of the incidence rates of prostate cancer were associated with the screening recommendations. Meanwhile, the increased mortality rates did not appear to be associated with decreased PSA testing; instead, they were linked to the effects of age and improvements in identification of the cause of death. Thus, we do not believe a PSA screening program would benefit the population of this study.

SUBMITTER: Lima CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7993820 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Despite high social and public health costs of firearm violence in the United States, the effects of many policies designed to reduce firearm mortality remain uncertain. To estimate the individual and joint effect sizes of state firearm policies on firearm-related mortality. In this comparative effectiveness study, bayesian methods were used to model panel data of annual, state-level mortality rates (1979-2019) for all US firearm decedents, with analyses conducted in October 2023. Six classes of firearms policies: background checks, minimum age, waiting periods, child access, concealed carry, and stand-your-ground laws. Primary outcomes (total firearm deaths, firearm homicide deaths, and firearm suicide deaths) were assessed using the National Vital Statistics System. Bayesian estimation was used to estimate the partial association of changes in firearms policies with subsequent changes in firearm mortality. The estimated effect sizes of individual policies 5 or more years after implementation were generally small in magnitude and had considerable uncertainty. The policy class with the highest probability of reducing firearm deaths was child-access prevention laws, estimated to reduce overall firearm mortality by 6% (80% credible interval [CrI], -2% to -9%). The policy class with the highest probability of increasing firearm deaths was stand-your-ground laws, estimated to increase firearm homicides by 6% (80% CrI, 0% to 13% increase). Estimates of association of implementing multiple firearm restrictions with subsequent changes in firearm mortality yielded larger effect sizes. Moving from the most permissive to most restrictive set of firearm policies was associated with an estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths (80% CrI, 10% to 28% reduction), with a 0.99 probability of any reductions in firearm death rates. In this comparative effectiveness study of state firearm policies, the joint effect estimates of combinations of firearm laws were calculated, showing that restrictive firearm policies were associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality. Although policymakers would benefit from knowing the effects of individual policies, the estimated changes in firearm mortality following implementation of individual policies were often small and uncertain.

Project description:BackgroundDengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags.MethodsWe analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective.ResultsFrom the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index.ConclusionsThe potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

Project description:BACKGROUND:It is known that mortality after hip fracture increases compared to the general population; the trend in mortality is a controversial issue. The objective of this study is to examine incidence, trends, and factors associated with mortality in patients with osteoporotic hip fractures. METHODS:This is a retrospective cohort study that uses the Registry for Hospital Discharges of the National Health System of our hospital. Patients older than 45 having an osteoporotic hip fracture between 1999 and 2015 were identified. Demographic data and comorbidities were obtained. A survival analysis was performed (Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier). Incidence rate, standardized death rate (SDR), trend (Poisson regression), and risk (hazard ratio) were calculated. RESULTS:During 1999-2015, in our hospital, there were a total of 3992 patients admitted due to osteoporotic hip fracture. Out of these 3992 patients, 3109 patients (77.9%) were women with an average age of 84.47 years (SD 8.45) and 803 (22.1%) were men with an average age of 81.64 years (SD 10.08). The cumulative incidence of mortality was 69.38%. The cumulative mortality rate for 12 months was 33%. The annual mortality was 144.9/1000 patients/year. The 1-year mortality rate increased significantly by 2% per year (IRR 1.020, CI95% 1.008-1.033). The median overall survival was 886 days (CI95% 836-951). The probability of mortality density for a period of 10 years following a hip fracture was 16% for women and 25% for men (first 90 days). The SDR was 8.3 (CI95% 7.98-8.59). Variables that showed statistically significant association with mortality were aged over 75, masculine, institutionalization, mild to severe liver disease, chronic kidney disease, COPD, dementia, heart failure, diabetes, the Charlson Index > 2 , presence of vision disorders and hearing impairment, incontinence, and Downton scale. CONCLUSIONS:For the last 17 years, an increase of mortality for patients with hip fracture and a higher mortality rate in men than in women were observed. Institutionalization combined with comorbidities is associated with a higher mortality.

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Trends in prostate cancer incidence and mortality to monitor control policies in a northeastern Brazilian state.

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