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High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town.

ABSTRACT: Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of "what-if" scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY-one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches-in hospitals or drive-through facilities-and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision-making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features.

SUBMITTER: Truszkowska A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7995144 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCorona (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered corona virus. The World Health Organization has recommended several preventive measures for COVID-19 and African countries, including Ethiopia had accepted and engaged in the recommended preventive measures. Adherence to COVID-19 prevention measure is still a big problem; however, the level of adherence to preventive measures had not reported in Ethiopia among students and there is an information gap, therefore, this study conducted to fill the information gap on level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures among students.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures and its associated factors among high school students in Jimma Town public High Schools in southwest Ethiopia, 2021.Methods sand materialsAn institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 404 systematically selected high school students from Jimma town from July 15 to August 2, 2021. The sample size was determined using a single-population proportion formula, and data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a structured and pretested questionnaire. Data were entered into Epi-data manager 4.4.2.1 then exported to Stata 14 for cleaning and analysis. Bivariate and multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses were declared to identify significant variables. Finally; significant factors were determined at a significance level of <0.05.ResultsOf 388 students included in the analysis, approximately 14.7% (95%CI: 11.51-18.60) of students had good level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures.Only 6.9%of participants had good knowledge where as approximately half of the respondents had favorable attitude toward COVID-19 preventive measures. Factors such as Female gender (AOR = 1.03(95%CI: 1.01-1.74), access to water and soap (AOR = 2.11(95%CI: 1.06-4.19) andattitude (AOR = 4.36(95%CI: 2.69-7.08)) were found to have a statistically significant association with level of adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures.ConclusionAdherence to COVID-19preventive measures among students wasunexpectedly lower than in other studies. Female gender, lack of access to water and soap, and attitudes were factors associated with adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures. Therefore, to ensure maximal adherence to preventive measures for COVID-19, special messages and efforts targeting males, increasing access to water and soap, trainingto improve attitude toward COVID-19 preventive measures should be implemented at schools.

Dataset Information

High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town.

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