Assessing the COVID-19 Impact on Air Quality: A Machine Learning Approach.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Rybarczyk Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7995168 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background Since the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the development of predictive models has sparked relevant interest due to the initial lack of knowledge about diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. The present study aimed at developing a model, through a machine learning approach, to predict intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in COVID-19 patients based on predefined clinical parameters. Results Observational multicenter cohort study. All COVID-19 adult patients admitted to 25 ICUs belonging to the VENETO ICU network (February 28th 2020-april 4th 2021) were enrolled. Patients admitted to the ICUs before 4th March 2021 were used for model training (“training set”), while patients admitted after the 5th of March 2021 were used for external validation (“test set 1”). A further group of patients (“test set 2”), admitted to the ICU of IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, was used for external validation. A SuperLearner machine learning algorithm was applied for model development, and both internal and external validation was performed. Clinical variables available for the model were (i) age, gender, sequential organ failure assessment score, Charlson Comorbidity Index score (not adjusted for age), Palliative Performance Score; (ii) need of invasive mechanical ventilation, non-invasive mechanical ventilation, O2 therapy, vasoactive agents, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, continuous venous-venous hemofiltration, tracheostomy, re-intubation, prone position during ICU stay; and (iii) re-admission in ICU. One thousand two hundred ninety-three (80%) patients were included in the “training set”, while 124 (8%) and 199 (12%) patients were included in the “test set 1” and “test set 2,” respectively. Three different predictive models were developed. Each model included different sets of clinical variables. The three models showed similar predictive performances, with a training balanced accuracy that ranged between 0.72 and 0.90, while the cross-validation performance ranged from 0.75 to 0.85. Age was the leading predictor for all the considered models. Conclusions Our study provides a useful and reliable tool, through a machine learning approach, for predicting ICU mortality in COVID-19 patients. In all the estimated models, age was the variable showing the most important impact on mortality. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s44158-021-00002-x.
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Project description:BackgroundControlling the COVID-19 outbreak in Brazil is a challenge due to the population's size and urban density, inefficient maintenance of social distancing and testing strategies, and limited availability of testing resources.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to effectively prioritize patients who are symptomatic for testing to assist early COVID-19 detection in Brazil, addressing problems related to inefficient testing and control strategies.MethodsRaw data from 55,676 Brazilians were preprocessed, and the chi-square test was used to confirm the relevance of the following features: gender, health professional, fever, sore throat, dyspnea, olfactory disorders, cough, coryza, taste disorders, and headache. Classification models were implemented relying on preprocessed data sets; supervised learning; and the algorithms multilayer perceptron (MLP), gradient boosting machine (GBM), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and logistic regression (LR). The models' performances were analyzed using 10-fold cross-validation, classification metrics, and the Friedman and Nemenyi statistical tests. The permutation feature importance method was applied for ranking the features used by the classification models with the highest performances.ResultsGender, fever, and dyspnea were among the highest-ranked features used by the classification models. The comparative analysis presents MLP, GBM, DT, RF, XGBoost, and SVM as the highest performance models with similar results. KNN and LR were outperformed by the other algorithms. Applying the easy interpretability as an additional comparison criterion, the DT was considered the most suitable model.ConclusionsThe DT classification model can effectively (with a mean accuracy≥89.12%) assist COVID-19 test prioritization in Brazil. The model can be applied to recommend the prioritizing of a patient who is symptomatic for COVID-19 testing.
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Project description:Scientific understanding about the psychological impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic is in its nascent stage. Prior research suggests that demographic factors, such as gender and age, are associated with greater distress during a global health crisis. Less is known about how emotion regulation impacts levels of distress during a pandemic. The present study aimed to identify predictors of psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants (N = 2,787) provided demographics, history of adverse childhood experiences, current coping strategies (use of implicit and explicit emotion regulation), and current psychological distress. The overall prevalence of clinical levels of anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress was higher than the prevalence outside a pandemic and was higher than rates reported among healthcare workers and survivors of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Younger participants (<45 years), women, and non-binary individuals reported higher prevalence of symptoms across all measures of distress. A random forest machine learning algorithm was used to identify the strongest predictors of distress. Regression trees were developed to identify individuals at greater risk for anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress. Somatization and less reliance on adaptive defense mechanisms were associated with greater distress. These findings highlight the importance of assessing individuals' physical experiences of psychological distress and emotion regulation strategies to help mental health providers tailor assessments and treatment during a global health crisis.
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