Stochastic sampling effects favor manual over digital contact tracing.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Mancastroppa M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7997996 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Comprehensive testing schemes, followed by adequate contact tracing and isolation, represent the best public health interventions we can employ to reduce the impact of an ongoing epidemic when no or limited vaccine supplies are available and the implications of a full lockdown are to be avoided. However, the process of tracing can prove feckless for highly-contagious viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. The interview-based approaches often miss contacts and involve significant delays, while digital solutions can suffer from insufficient adoption rates or inadequate usage patterns. Here we present a novel way of modelling different contact tracing strategies, using a generalized multi-site mean-field model, which can naturally assess the impact of manual and digital approaches alike. Our methodology can readily be applied to any compartmental formulation, thus enabling the study of more complex pathogen dynamics. We use this technique to simulate a newly-defined epidemiological model, SEIR-T, and show that, given the right conditions, tracing in a COVID-19 epidemic can be effective even when digital uptakes are sub-optimal or interviewers miss a fair proportion of the contacts.
| S-EPMC8601513 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 infection cases have surged globally, causing devastations to both the society and economy. A key factor contributing to the sustained spreading is the presence of a large number of asymptomatic or hidden spreaders, who mix among the susceptible population without being detected or quarantined. Due to the continuous emergence of new virus variants, even if vaccines have been widely used, the detection of asymptomatic infected persons is still important in the epidemic control. Based on the unique characteristics of COVID-19 spreading dynamics, here we propose a theoretical framework capturing the transition probabilities among different infectious states in a network, and extend it to an efficient algorithm to identify asymptotic individuals. We find that using pure physical spreading equations, the hidden spreaders of COVID-19 can be identified with remarkable accuracy, even with incomplete information of the contract-tracing networks. Furthermore, our framework can be useful for other epidemic diseases that also feature asymptomatic spreading.
| S-EPMC10356757 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Digital contact tracing presents numerous advantages compared to manual contact tracing methods, especially in terms of enhanced speed and automation. Nevertheless, a lack of comprehensive evaluation regarding functionality, efficiency, benefits, and acceptance within communities remains. Here we primarily focus on the functionality of THEA-GS, an open-source digital contact tracing tool developed through consultation with stakeholders. Additionally, we provide insights from its implementation on a limited sample of haulage drivers in Uganda, serving as a representative case for a low- and middle-income country. THEA-GS comprises two primary components: (a) a smartphone application, and (b) a suite of server-programs responsible for data processing and analysis, including databases and a web-based interface featuring dashboards. In essence, the mobile application records the timestamped location of haulage drivers within the road network and identifies possible transmission hotspots by analyzing factors such as the duration of stops and the communities associated with them. The tool can be integrated with national infrastructure to compare drivers' diagnostic results and contact structure, thereby generating individual and community risk assessments relative to the road network. During the Omicron-variant wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, a total of 3,270 haulage drivers were enrolled between October 2021 and October 2022. Around 75% of these drivers utilized THEA-GS for approximately two months. Based on an analysis of 3,800 test results, which included 48 positive cases, 125 contacts, and 40 million time-stamped GPS points, THEA-GS shows a significant speed improvement, being approximately 90 times faster than MCT. For instance, the average time from sample collection to notifying a case and their contacts was approximately 70 and 80 min, respectively. The adoption of this tool encountered challenges, mainly due to drivers' awareness of its purpose and benefits for public health. THEA-GS is a place-based digital contact tracing tool specifically designed to assist National Public Health Institutions in managing infectious disease outbreaks involving the haulage industry as a high-risk group. While its utility, acceptance, and accuracy have not been fully evaluated, our preliminary tests conducted in Uganda indicate the tool's functionality is robust, but social acceptance and adoption are heavily reliant on establishing trust among users.
| S-EPMC10394895 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Digital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15-20 minutes and closer than 2-3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.
| S-EPMC7955065 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDigital proximity-tracing apps have been deployed in multiple countries to assist with SARS-CoV-2 pandemic mitigation efforts. However, it is unclear how their performance and effectiveness were affected by changing pandemic contexts and new viral variants of concern.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to bridge these knowledge gaps through a countrywide digital proximity-tracing app effectiveness assessment, as guided by the World Health Organization/European Center for Prevention and Disease Control (WHO/ECDC) indicator framework to evaluate the public health effectiveness of digital proximity-tracing solutions.MethodsWe performed a descriptive analysis of the digital proximity-tracing app SwissCovid in Switzerland for 3 different periods where different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (ie, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron, respectively) were most prevalent. In our study, we refer to the indicator framework for the evaluation of public health effectiveness of digital proximity-tracing apps of the WHO/ECDC. We applied this framework to compare the performance and effectiveness indicators of the SwissCovid app.ResultsAverage daily registered SARS-CoV-2 case rates during our assessment period from January 25, 2021, to March 19, 2022, were 20 (Alpha), 54 (Delta), and 350 (Omicron) per 100,000 inhabitants. The percentages of overall entered authentication codes from positive tests into the SwissCovid app were 9.9% (20,273/204,741), 3.9% (14,372/365,846), and 4.6% (72,324/1,581,506) during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variant phases, respectively. Following receipt of an exposure notification from the SwissCovid app, 58% (37/64, Alpha), 44% (7/16, Delta), and 73% (27/37, Omicron) of app users sought testing or performed self-tests. Test positivity among these exposure-notified individuals was 19% (7/37) in the Alpha variant phase, 29% (2/7) in the Delta variant phase, and 41% (11/27) in the Omicron variant phase compared to 6.1% (228,103/3,755,205), 12% (413,685/3,443,364), and 41.7% (1,784,951/4,285,549) in the general population, respectively. In addition, 31% (20/64, Alpha), 19% (3/16, Delta), and 30% (11/37, Omicron) of exposure-notified app users reported receiving mandatory quarantine orders by manual contact tracing or through a recommendation by a health care professional.ConclusionsIn constantly evolving pandemic contexts, the effectiveness of digital proximity-tracing apps in contributing to mitigating pandemic spread should be reviewed regularly and adapted based on changing requirements. The WHO/ECDC framework allowed us to assess relevant domains of digital proximity tracing in a holistic and systematic approach. Although the Swisscovid app mostly worked, as reasonably expected, our analysis revealed room for optimizations and further performance improvements. Future implementation of digital proximity-tracing apps should place more emphasis on social, psychological, and organizational aspects to reduce bottlenecks and facilitate their use in pandemic contexts.
| S-EPMC9700234 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMitigation of the spread of infection relies on targeted approaches aimed at preventing nonhousehold interactions. Contact tracing in the form of digital proximity tracing apps has been widely adopted in multiple countries due to its perceived added benefits of tracing speed and breadth in comparison to traditional manual contact tracing. Assessments of user responses to exposure notifications through a guided approach can provide insights into the effect of digital proximity tracing app use on managing the spread of SARS-CoV-2.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to demonstrate the use of Venn diagrams to investigate the contributions of digital proximity tracing app exposure notifications and subsequent mitigative actions in curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland.MethodsWe assessed data from 4 survey waves (December 2020 to March 2021) from a nationwide panel study (COVID-19 Social Monitor) of Swiss residents who were (1) nonusers of the SwissCovid app, (2) users of the SwissCovid app, or (3) users of the SwissCovid app who received exposure notifications. A Venn diagram approach was applied to describe the overlap or nonoverlap of these subpopulations and to assess digital proximity tracing app use and its associated key performance indicators, including actions taken to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.ResultsWe included 12,525 assessments from 2403 participants, of whom 50.9% (1222/2403) reported not using the SwissCovid digital proximity tracing app, 49.1% (1181/2403) reported using the SwissCovid digital proximity tracing app and 2.5% (29/1181) of the digital proximity tracing app users reported having received an exposure notification. Most digital proximity tracing app users (75.9%, 22/29) revealed taking at least one recommended action after receiving an exposure notification, such as seeking SARS-CoV-2 testing (17/29, 58.6%) or calling a federal information hotline (7/29, 24.1%). An assessment of key indicators of mitigative actions through a Venn diagram approach reveals that 30% of digital proximity tracing app users (95% CI 11.9%-54.3%) also tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after having received exposure notifications, which is more than 3 times that of digital proximity tracing app users who did not receive exposure notifications (8%, 95% CI 5%-11.9%).ConclusionsResponses in the form of mitigative actions taken by 3 out of 4 individuals who received exposure notifications reveal a possible contribution of digital proximity tracing apps in mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The application of a Venn diagram approach demonstrates its value as a foundation for researchers and health authorities to assess population-level digital proximity tracing app effectiveness by providing an intuitive approach for calculating key performance indicators.
| S-EPMC8658229 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic posed challenges to governments in terms of contact tracing. Like many other countries, Germany introduced a mobile-phone-based digital contact tracing solution ("Corona Warn App"; CWA) in June 2020. At the time of its release, however, it was hard to assess how effective such a solution would be, and a political and societal debate arose regarding its efficiency, also in light of its high costs. This study aimed to analyze the effectiveness of the CWA, considering prevented infections, hospitalizations, intensive care treatments, and deaths. In addition, its efficiency was to be assessed from a monetary point of view, and factors with a significant influence on the effectiveness and efficiency of the CWA were to be determined. Mathematical and statistical modeling was used to calculate infection cases prevented by the CWA, along with the numbers of prevented complications (hospitalizations, intensive care treatments, deaths) using publicly available CWA download numbers and incidences over time. The monetized benefits of these prevented cases were quantified and offset against the costs incurred. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify factors critically influencing these parameters. Between June 2020 and April 2022, the CWA prevented 1.41 million infections, 17,200 hospitalizations, 4600 intensive care treatments, and 7200 deaths. After offsetting costs and benefits, the CWA had a net present value of EUR 765 m in April 2022. Both the effectiveness and efficiency of the CWA are decisively and disproportionately positively influenced by the highest possible adoption rate among the population and a high rate of positive infection test results shared via the CWA.
| S-EPMC9654962 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Several countries in Africa have either deployed or considering using digital contact-tracing (DCT) as part of their Covid-19 containment strategy, amidst calls for the use of technology to improve the efficiency of traditional contact-tracing. We discuss some of the complexities entailed in using DCT in Africa. Adopting a socio-technical perspective, we argue that if DCT design and deployment are not well thought out, it can lead to unintended consequences, particularly in a continent like Africa with disproportionate levels of digital divides and other structural inequalities. We suggest that any adoption of DCT by African countries must take account of their compatibility with local resources, values, social structure, and domestic political factors. Accordingly, we propose a process of translation whereby DCT adaptation is made to accommodate the unique institutional and technological characteristics of African countries by leveraging local practices learned from previous pandemics like Ebola to develop a blended epidemiological approach to (digital) contact-tracing.
| S-EPMC7396131 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Fuelled by epidemiological studies of SARS-CoV-2, contact tracing by mobile phones has been put to use in many countries. Over a year into the pandemic, we lack conclusive evidence on its effectiveness. To address this gap, we used a unique real world contact data set, collected during the rollout of the first Norwegian contact tracing app in the Spring of 2020. Our dataset involves millions of contacts between 12.5% of the adult population, which enabled us to measure the real-world app performance. The technological tracing efficacy was measured at 80%, and we estimated that at least 11.0% of the discovered close contacts could not have been identified by manual contact tracing. Our results also indicated that digital contact tracing can flag individuals with excessive contacts, which can help contain superspreading related outbreaks. The overall effectiveness of digital tracing depends strongly on app uptake, but significant impact can be achieved for moderate uptake numbers. Used as a supplement to manual tracing and other measures, digital tracing can be instrumental in controlling the pandemic. Our findings can thus help informing public health policies in the coming months.
| S-EPMC8505561 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimComprehensive case investigation and contact tracing are crucial to prevent community spread of COVID-19. We demonstrated a utility of using traditional contact tracing measures supplemented with symptom tracking and contact management system to assist public health workers with high efficiency.MethodsA centralized contact tracing system was developed to support data linkage, cross-jurisdictional coordination, and follow-up of contacts' health status. We illustrated the process of how digital tools support contact tracing and management of COVID-19 cases and measured the timeliness from case detection to contact monitoring to evaluate system performance.ResultsAmong the 8051 close contacts of the 487 confirmed cases (16.5 close contacts/case, 95% CI [13.9-19.1]), the median elapsed time from last exposure to quarantine was three days (IQR 1-5). By implementing the approach of self-reporting using automatic text-messages and web-app, the percentage of health status updates from self-reporting increased from 22.5% to 61.5%. The high proportion of secondary cases detected via contact tracing (88%) might reduce the R0 to under one and minimize the impact of local transmission in the community.ConclusionComprehensive contact tracing and management with complementary technology would still be a pillar of strategies for containing outbreaks during de-escalation or early in the next wave of COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7537669 | biostudies-literature