The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yao X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8009400 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Based on a new trade accounting method-the trade in value-added accounting method-this paper constructs the international manufacturing trade in value-added networks and preferential trade agreement (PTA) networks and uses the complex network analysis method to explore the relations between PTA and international manufacturing trade in value-added from the perspective of the global value chain. The results are as follows: (1) Over the years, the international manufacturing trade in value-added networks and PTA networks has shown a significant clustering effect, and the size of networks has grown rapidly. (2) The TEX, DVA and FVA networks of the international manufacturing value added trade over the years can be divided into two societies in the Asia-Pacific region and the European region. This division just reflects the different modes of division of labor in the manufacturing value chain of the two major economic regions in the world. (3) QAP analysis shows that the influencing factors of the traditional gravity model can still explain the manufacturing trade network and its value-added trade network, while the influence of economic globalization, the enlargement of the EU and the internationalization strategy of enterprises, the PTA network and manufacturing value-added the relationship between trade networks changed from positive to negative in 2004.
| S-EPMC7894938 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study analyzes aggregate data on trade flows to examine the performance of bilateral free trade agreements (BFTAs) between the United States and 11 BFTA nations in a two-dimensional approach. In line with the literature, this study applies the gravity model and analyzes the effect of the treatment using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) panel data from 1992 to 2017. We use the PPML as an alternative methodology to an ordinary least squares model, as it can treat zero trade values and lead to unbiased estimates and different consistencies. We consider the trade in goods but excluded services because of the different nature of trade for services. Moreover, this study highlights the quantitative performance of BFTAs without considering the industry level to compare the overall benefits for the trade flows from the U.S. as an exporter to BFTA countries and vice versa. It thus adds to the debate on the effect of FTAs on trade flows and conducts pre-FTA and post-FTA analyses to compare the volumes of exports and imports during both periods. Findings vary according to the direction of trade; notably, some trading partners increased their trading volume to 388%. In sum, this paper provides a collective current state assessment to demonstrate the most plausible reasons for the effects of the 11 BFTAs, in addition to informing policymakers on the lessons learned from each BFTA.
| S-EPMC9000109 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA large body of literature exists on trade liberalisation and the ways in which trade agreements can affect food systems. However, the systematic and objective monitoring of these and their impact on national food environments has been limited. Using a case study, this paper undertakes a systematic analysis of how Vanuatu's obligations under WTO agreements has impacted its food environment.ResultsData collection was guided by the INFORMAS trade monitoring framework's minimal approach and seven selected indicators outlined in three domains: trade in goods, trade in services and FDI, and policy space. Strong associations between trade liberalisation and imported foods, especially ultra-processed foods were evident in measured indicators as follows: (i) food trade with 32 WTO countries showing high levels of import volumes; (ii) a marked increase in 'less healthy' focus food imports namely fatty and other selected meat products, sugar, savoury snacks, ice-cream and edible ices and energy-dense beverages; (iii) actual and bound tariff rates impacting import trends of ice-cream and edible ices, bakery products and confectionary; and in other instances, a sharp increase in import of crisps, snacks and noodles despite tariff rates remaining unchanged from 2008 to 2019; (iv) policies regulating food marketing, composition, labelling and trade in the domestic space with relatively limited safeguard measures; (v) 49 foreign-owned food-related companies involved in food manufacturing and processing and the production of coffee, bakery products, confectionary, food preservatives, fish, local food products and meat, and the manufacturing, processing and packaging of palm oil, coconut oil, cooking oil, water, cordial juice, flavoured juices, soft drinks and alcoholic beverages. These were largely produced for local consumption; (vi) 32 domestic industries engaged in food and beverage production; and (vii) an assessment of WTO provisions relating to domestic policy space and governance showing that the current legal and regulatory environment for food in Vanuatu remains fragmented.ConclusionsThe analysis presented in this paper suggest that Vanuatu's commitments to WTO agreements do play an important role in shaping their food environment and the availability, nutritional quality, and accessibility of foods.
| S-EPMC8447725 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To model international trade of forest products we use a gravity model of trade. In modeling trade, we estimate the impact of importer gross domestic product (GDP), exporter GDP, and distance between trading partners using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). When estimating the log-linearized gravity model (ordinary least squares [OLS]), two issues arise. First, potential bias associated with truncation of all zero-trade observations due to the nonexistence of the natural log of zero. Second, heteroscedasticity can bias results from the log-linearized gravity model because of the multiplicative error term of the stochastic gravity model. To address these two issues, we propose avoiding the log-linearized gravity model and instead estimate the nonlinear gravity model via PPML. To estimate the model, trade data are compiled from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The observation window is from 1997 to 2014 and covers 13 product categories at a country-pair level. In our estimation, we find systematic differences in estimates from OLS in comparison with estimates from PPML. Using the estimated elasticities, in combination with estimates of future GDP from shared socioeconomic pathways, we project future US exports to the year 2030 for each item category in addition to total exports for Brazilian wood pulp, New Zealand industrial roundwood, and Canadian coniferous sawnwood. Using our approach, we provide a tool for policy makers and industry leaders alike to make informed decisions over prior estimates of forest product trade.
| S-EPMC7147786 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing the development of China-ASEAN trade- from the total economic volume of both sides, distance, the population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of a free trade area, and the signing of the Belt and Road initiative, resource endowment per capita, the exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the land area of ASEAN countries—to develop a conceptual framework for China-ASEAN trade potential. Study design This study uses panel data from 2001 to 2021 that is evenly distributed among 10 ASEAN countries to serve as the dataset. Firstly, the unit roots are checked and the cointegration relationships are examined, focusing on the heterogeneity test. Based on the classical trade gravity model, the innovative trade gravity model with key influencing factors is constructed. On the basis of the classical trade gravity model, an innovative trade gravity model of key influencing factors is constructed. The trade potential model is used to calculate the direct trade potential coefficient between China and ASEAN countries, which points out the direction for the sustainability of bilateral trade. Results This study finds that among the factors affecting China-ASEAN bilateral trade, the total economic output of both sides, distance, population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of the FTA, and the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative all have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Three influencing factors, namely per capita resource endowment, exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the size of ASEAN countries, have a negative impact on bilateral trade, but to a lesser extent. The trade potential between China and Vietnam falls into the category of potential re-modelling, indicating that both sides are currently utilizing their trade potential to the greatest extent possible, that trade growth space is limited, and that new trade opportunities must be discovered. The trade potential index between China and nine ASEAN countries, excluding Vietnam, is in the potential-exploiting category, indicating that the potential has not been fully utilized by both sides and that there is still room for growth in the scale of trade between the two countries. Conclusion With the shift of the world’s economic center of gravity in the direction of Asia following COVID-19, China and ASEAN countries should seize the opportunity to strengthen their comprehensive strength and economic aggregates and further develop China’s constructive role in the regional organization. The signing of the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of a free trade zone has had a positive effect on the development of bilateral trade. Propose that: positive trade factors should continue to be strengthened, trade barriers should be removed, and new dynamics of bilateral trade growth should be enhanced.
| S-EPMC10473481 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:In principle, trade and investment agreements are meant to boost economic growth. However, the removal of trade barriers and the provision of investment incentives to attract foreign direct investments may facilitate increased trade in and/or more efficient production of commodities considered harmful to health such as tobacco. We analyze existing evidence on trade and investment liberalization and its relationship to tobacco trade in Sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS:We compare tobacco trading patterns to foreign direct investments made by tobacco companies. We estimate and compare changes in the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) Economic Globalization measure, relative price measure and cigarette prices. RESULTS:Preferential regional trade agreements appear to have encouraged the consolidation of cigarette production, which has shaped trading patterns of tobacco leaf. Since 2002, British American Tobacco has invested in tobacco manufacturing facilities in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa strategically located to serve different regions in Africa. Following this, British America Tobacco closed factories in Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, Mauritius and Angola. At the same time, Malawi and Tanzania exported a large percentage of tobacco leaf to European countries. After 2010, there was an increase in tobacco exports from Malawi and Zambia to China, which may be a result of preferential trade agreements the EU and China have with these countries. Economic liberalization has been accompanied by greater cigarette affordability for the countries included in our analysis. However, only excise taxes and income have an effect on cigarette prices within the region. CONCLUSIONS:These results suggest that the changing economic structures of international trade and investment are likely heightening the efficiency and effectiveness of the tobacco industry. As tobacco control advocates consider supply-side tobacco control interventions, they must consider carefully the effects of these economic agreements and whether there are ways to mitigate them.
| S-EPMC5686832 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Trade and investment agreements negotiated after the World Trade Organization's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) have included increasingly elevated protection of intellectual property rights along with an expanding array of rules impacting many aspects of pharmaceutical policy. Despite the large body of literature on intellectual property and access to affordable medicines, the ways in which other provisions in trade agreements can affect pharmaceutical policy and, in turn, access to medicines have been little studied. There is a need for an analytical framework covering the full range of provisions, pathways, and potential impacts, on which to base future health and human rights impact assessment and research. A framework exploring the ways in which trade and investment agreements may affect pharmaceutical policy was developed, based on an analysis of four recently negotiated regional trade agreements. First a set of core pharmaceutical policy objectives based on international consensus was identified. A systematic comparative analysis of the publicly available legal texts of the four agreements was undertaken, and the potential impacts of the provisions in these agreements on the core pharmaceutical policy objectives were traced through an analysis of possible pathways. RESULTS:An analytical framework is presented, linking ten types of provisions in the four trade agreements to potential impacts on four core pharmaceutical policy objectives (access and affordability; safety, efficacy, and quality; rational use of medicines; and local production capacity and health security) via various pathways. CONCLUSIONS:The analytical framework highlights provisions in trade and investment agreements that need to be examined, pathways that should be explored, and potential impacts that should be taken into consideration with respect to pharmaceutical policy. This may serve as a useful checklist or template for health and human rights impact assessments and research on the implications of trade agreements for pharmaceuticals.
| S-EPMC6882307 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Globalization via free trade and investment agreements is often implicated in the obesity pandemic. Concerns center on how free trade and investment agreements increase population exposure to unhealthy, high-calorie diets, but existing studies preclude causal conclusions. Few studies of free trade and investment agreements and diets isolated their impact from confounding changes, and none examined any effect on caloric intake, despite its critical role in the etiology of obesity. This study addresses these limitations by analyzing a unique natural experiment arising from the exceptional circumstances surrounding the implementation of the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. METHODS:Data from the UN (2017) were analyzed using fixed-effects regression models and the synthetic control method to estimate the impact of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on calorie availability in Canada, 1978-2006, and coinciding increases in U.S. exports and investment in Canada's food and beverage sector. The impact of changes to calorie availability on body weights was then modeled. RESULTS:Calorie availability increased by ≅170 kilocalories per capita per day in Canada after the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. There was a coinciding rise in U.S. trade and investment in the Canadian food and beverage sector. This rise in calorie availability is estimated to account for an average weight gain of between 1.8 kg and 12.2 kg in the Canadian population, depending on sex and physical activity levels. CONCLUSIONS:The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement was associated with a substantial rise in calorie availability in Canada. U.S. free trade and investment agreements can contribute to rising obesity and related diseases by pushing up caloric intake.
| S-EPMC5906641 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRegulation of food environments is needed to address the global challenge of poor nutrition, yet policy inertia has been a problem. A common argument against regulation is potential conflict with binding commitments under international trade and investment agreements (TIAs). This study aimed to identify which actors and institutions, in different contexts, influence how TIAs are used to constrain policy space for improving food environments, and to describe their core beliefs, interests, resources and strategies, with the objective of informing strategic global action to preserve nutrition policy space.MethodsWe conducted a global stakeholder analysis applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework, based on existing academic literature and key informant interviews with international experts in trade and investment law and public health nutrition policy.ResultsWe identified 12 types of actors who influence policy space in the food environment policy subsystem, relevant to TIAs. These actors hold various beliefs regarding the economic policy paradigm, the nature of obesity and dietary diseases as health problems, the role of government, and the role of industry in solving the health problem. We identified two primary competing coalitions: 1) a 'public health nutrition' coalition, which is overall supportive of and actively working to enact comprehensive food environment regulation; and 2) an 'industry and economic growth' focussed coalition, which places a higher priority on deregulation and is overall not supportive of comprehensive food environment regulation. The industry and economic growth coalition appears to be dominant, based on its relative power, resources and coordination. However, the public health nutrition coalition maintains influence through individual activism, collective lobbying and government pressure (e.g. by civil society), and expert knowledge generation.ConclusionsOur analysis suggests that industry and economic growth-focussed coalitions are highly capable of leveraging networks, institutional structures and ideologies to their advantage, and are a formidable source of opposition acting to constrain nutrition policy space globally, including through TIAs. Opportunities for global public health nutrition coalitions to strengthen their influence in the support of nutrition policy space include strategic evidence generation and coalition-building through broader engagement and capacity-building.
| S-EPMC8487514 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Doha Development Agenda recognizes the central role that international trade can play in the promotion of economic development. In fact, the increase of exports from developing countries to developed nations' markets has been considered a key element for developing countries to realize the potential benefits of globalization. Over the last decades, developed countries have provided preferential access to their markets to developing countries through nonreciprocal trade agreements. Moreover, developing countries have also participated in reciprocal trade agreements. This paper re-examines comparatively the effect of both kinds of trade agreements on exports from developing countries but also from the developed world. In line with other studies, our results across specifications are unstable. However, the results of our preferred specification give additional support to the argument raised by critics of nonreciprocal preference regimes who consider that developing countries should abandon their reliance on one-way trade preferences in favor of reciprocal agreements.
| S-EPMC6361425 | biostudies-literature