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A Simple Nomogram to Predict Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with Congestive Heart Failure Undergoing Coronary Angiography.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are vulnerable to contrast-induced kidney injury (CI-AKI), but few prediction models are currently available. Therefore, we aimed to establish a simple nomogram for CI-AKI risk assessment for patients with CHF undergoing coronary angiography.

Methods

A total of 1876 consecutive patients with CHF (defined as New York Heart Association functional class II-IV or Killip class II-IV) were enrolled and randomly (2:1) assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort. The endpoint was CI-AKI defined as serum creatinine elevation of ≥0.3 mg/dL or 50% from baseline within the first 48-72 hours following the procedure. Predictors for the simple nomogram were selected by multivariable logistic regression with a stepwise approach. The discriminative power was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and was compared with the classic Mehran score in the validation cohort. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and 1000 bootstrap samples.

Results

The incidence of CI-AKI was 9.06% (170) in the total sample, 8.64% (n = 109) in the development cohort, and 9.92% (n = 61) in the validation cohort (P=0.367). The simple nomogram including four predictors (age, intra-aortic balloon pump, acute myocardial infarction, and chronic kidney disease) demonstrated a similar predictive power as the Mehran score (area under the curve: 0.80 vs. 0.75, P=0.061), as well as a well-fitted calibration curve.

Conclusions

The present simple nomogram including four predictors is a simple and reliable tool to identify CHF patients at risk of CI-AKI, whereas further external validations are needed.

SUBMITTER: Lei L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8009707 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have shown that renal function recovery after acute kidney injury (AKI) was associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality. However, little is known about the correlation between renal function recovery and long-term prognosis in patients with contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) undergoing coronary angiography (CAG).MethodsWe retrospectively enrolled 5,865 patients who underwent CAG. CA-AKI was defined as an increase in serum creatinine (SCr) ≥ 50% or ≥ 0.3 mg/dl from baseline within 72 h post procedure. Recovered CA-AKI was defined as a decrease in SCr to baseline or no CA-AKI level. The first endpoint was long-term all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to investigate the association between kidney function recovery and long-term mortality.ResultsDuring the median follow-up period of 5.25 years, the overall long-term mortality was 20.07%, and the long-term mortality in patients with recovered CA-AKI and non-recovered CA-AKI was 17.46 and 27.44%, respectively. After multivariate Cox hazard regression, non-recovered CA-AKI was significantly associated with long-term mortality, while recovered CA-AKI was not [recovered CA-AKI vs. no CA-AKI, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-1.39, p = 0.661; non-recovered CA-AKI vs. no CA-AKI, HR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.21-1.60, p < 0.001]. In the subgroup of CAD, both recovered CA-AKI and non-recovered CA-AKI were associated with increased risk of long-term all-cause mortality. However, in other subgroup analyses, only non-recovered CA-AKI was associated with increased risk of long-term all-cause mortality.ConclusionOur results found that non-recovered CA-AKI is significantly associated with long-term mortality. In patients with CAD, recovered CA-AKI can still increase the risk of all-cause mortality. Clinicians need to pay more attention to patients suffering from CA-AKI, whose kidney function has not recovered. In addition, active prevention treatments should be taken by patients with CAD.