Nowcasting the prevalence of asymptomatic, preclinical, and clinical COVID-19 infections.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Su SY
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8011633 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Recently, considerable efforts have been focused on intensifying the screening process for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in the Chinese Mainland, especially for up to 10 million citizens living in Wuhan City by nucleic acid testing. However, a high percentage of domestic asymptomatic cases did not develop into symptomatic ones, which is abnormal and has drawn considerable public attention. Here, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of COVID-19 infections in the Chinese Mainland from a statistical perspective, as it is of referential significance for other regions. By conservatively assuming a development time lag from pre-symptomatic (i.e., referring to the infected cases that were screened before the COVID-19 symptom onset) to symptomatic as an incubation time of 5.2 days, our results indicated that 92.5% of those tested in Wuhan City, China, and 95.1% of those tested in the Chinese Mainland should have COVID-19 syndrome onset, which was extremely higher than their corresponding practical percentages of 0.8% and 3.3%, respectively. We propose that a certain false positive rate may exist if large-scale nucleic acid screening tests for asymptomatic cases are conducted in common communities with a low incidence rate. Despite adopting relatively high-sensitivity, high-specificity detection kits, we estimated a very low prevalence of COVID-19 infections, ranging from 10-6 to 10-4 in both Wuhan City and the Chinese Mainland. Thus, the prevalence rate of asymptomatic infections in China had been at a very low level. Furthermore, given the lower prevalence of the infection, close examination of the data for false positive results is necessary to minimize social and economic impacts.
| S-EPMC7399709 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To assess the current dynamics of an epidemic, it is central to collect information on the daily number of newly diseased cases. This is especially important in real-time surveillance, where the aim is to gain situational awareness, for example, if cases are currently increasing or decreasing. Reporting delays between disease onset and case reporting hamper our ability to understand the dynamics of an epidemic close to now when looking at the number of daily reported cases only. Nowcasting can be used to adjust daily case counts for occurred-but-not-yet-reported events. Here, we present a novel application of nowcasting to data on the current COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria. It is based on a hierarchical Bayesian model that considers changes in the reporting delay distribution over time and associated with the weekday of reporting. Furthermore, we present a way to estimate the effective time-varying case reproduction number Re(t) based on predictions of the nowcast. The approaches are based on previously published work, that we considerably extended and adapted to the current task of nowcasting COVID-19 cases. We provide methodological details of the developed approach, illustrate results based on data of the current pandemic, and evaluate the model based on synthetic and retrospective data on COVID-19 in Bavaria. Results of our nowcasting are reported to the Bavarian health authority and published on a webpage on a daily basis (https://corona.stat.uni-muenchen.de/). Code and synthetic data for the analysis are available from https://github.com/FelixGuenther/nc_covid19_bavaria and can be used for adaption of our approach to different data.
| S-EPMC7753318 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Previous studies have showed clinical characteristics of patients with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the evidence of person-to-person transmission. Limited data are available for asymptomatic infections. This study aims to present the clinical characteristics of 24 cases with asymptomatic infection screened from close contacts and to show the transmission potential of asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carriers. Epidemiological investigations were conducted among all close contacts of COVID-19 patients (or suspected patients) in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China, from Jan 28 to Feb 9, 2020, both in clinic and in community. Asymptomatic carriers were laboratory-confirmed positive for the COVID-19 virus by testing the nucleic acid of the pharyngeal swab samples. Their clinical records, laboratory assessments, and chest CT scans were reviewed. As a result, none of the 24 asymptomatic cases presented any obvious symptoms while nucleic acid screening. Five cases (20.8%) developed symptoms (fever, cough, fatigue, etc.) during hospitalization. Twelve (50.0%) cases showed typical CT images of ground-glass chest and 5 (20.8%) presented stripe shadowing in the lungs. The remaining 7 (29.2%) cases showed normal CT image and had no symptoms during hospitalization. These 7 cases were younger (median age: 14.0 years; P=0.012) than the rest. None of the 24 cases developed severe COVID-19 pneumonia or died. The median communicable period, defined as the interval from the first day of positive nucleic acid tests to the first day of continuous negative tests, was 9.5 days (up to 21 days among the 24 asymptomatic cases). Through epidemiological investigation, we observed a typical asymptomatic transmission to the cohabiting family members, which even caused severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Overall, the asymptomatic carriers identified from close contacts were prone to be mildly ill during hospitalization. However, the communicable period could be up to three weeks and the communicated patients could develop severe illness. These results highlighted the importance of close contact tracing and longitudinally surveillance via virus nucleic acid tests. Further isolation recommendation and continuous nucleic acid tests may also be recommended to the patients discharged.
| S-EPMC7088568 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe missing asymptomatic COVID-19 infections have been overlooked because of the imperfect sensitivity of the nucleic acid testing (NAT). Globally understanding the humoral immunity in asymptomatic carriers will provide scientific knowledge for developing serological tests, improving early identification, and implementing more rational control strategies against the pandemic.MeasureUtilizing both NAT and commercial kits for serum IgM and IgG antibodies, we extensively screened 11 766 epidemiologically suspected individuals on enrollment and 63 asymptomatic individuals were detected and recruited. Sixty-three healthy individuals and 51 mild patients without any preexisting conditions were set as controls. Serum IgM and IgG profiles were further probed using a SARS-CoV-2 proteome microarray, and neutralizing antibody was detected by a pseudotyped virus neutralization assay system. The dynamics of antibodies were analyzed with exposure time or symptoms onset.ResultsA combination test of NAT and serological testing for IgM antibody discovered 55.5% of the total of 63 asymptomatic infections, which significantly raises the detection sensitivity when compared with the NAT alone (19%). Serum proteome microarray analysis demonstrated that asymptomatics mainly produced IgM and IgG antibodies against S1 and N proteins out of 20 proteins of SARS-CoV-2. Different from strong and persistent N-specific antibodies, S1-specific IgM responses, which evolved in asymptomatic individuals as early as the seventh day after exposure, peaked on days from 17 days to 25 days, and then disappeared in two months, might be used as an early diagnostic biomarker. 11.8% (6/51) mild patients and 38.1% (24/63) asymptomatic individuals did not produce neutralizing antibody. In particular, neutralizing antibody in asymptomatics gradually vanished in two months.ConclusionOur findings might have important implications for the definition of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections, diagnosis, serological survey, public health, and immunization strategies.
| S-EPMC7675426 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for solid organ transplant programs. While transplant activity has largely recovered, appropriate management of deceased donor candidates who are asymptomatic but have positive nucleic acid testing (NAT) for SARS-CoV-2 is unclear, as this result may reflect active infection or prolonged viral shedding. Furthermore, candidates who are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated continue to receive donor offers. In the absence of robust outcomes data, transplant professionals at US adult kidney transplant centers were surveyed (February 13, 2021 to April 29, 2021) to determine community practice (N: 92 centers, capturing 41% of centers and 57% of transplants performed). The majority (97%) of responding centers declined organs for asymptomatic NAT+ patients without documented prior infection. However, 32% of centers proceed with kidney transplant in NAT+ patients who were at least 30 days from initial diagnosis with negative chest imaging. Less than 7% of programs reported inactivating patients who were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. In conclusion, despite national recommendations to wait for negative testing, many centers are proceeding with kidney transplant in patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 NAT results due to presumed viral shedding. Furthermore, few centers are requiring COVID-19 vaccination prior to transplantation at this time.
| S-EPMC8420523 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose: To investigate molecular mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2-induced mucin expression and synthesis and test candidate countermeasures. Methods: Bulk RNA-seq was performed on well-differentiated human bronchial epithelial (HBE) cell culture lysates with/without SARS-CoV-2 inoculation. Results: SARS-CoV-2-infected HBE cultures exhibited peak titers 3 days post inoculation, whereas induction of MUC5B/MUC5AC peaked 7-14 days post inoculation. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2-infection to HBE culture causes mucus goblet cell metaplasia and increased expression of MUC5B-dominated mucin overproduction.
2022-08-03 | GSE210223 | GEO
Project description:A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replicate the results are provided.
| S-EPMC8242495 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is concern that in-person schooling during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will facilitate disease transmission. Through asymptomatic surveillance and contact tracing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we found low rates of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and little in-school transmission of COVID-19 when physical distancing and masking strategies were enforced despite a high community prevalence of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8271352 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesDetailed knowledge on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the clinical characteristics of mild COVID-19 is essential for effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We determined the prevalence of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 and characterized the symptoms of patients with mild COVID-19.MethodsStudy participants were recruited from a community facility designated for the isolation of patients without moderate-to-severe symptoms of COVID-19 in South Korea. The prevalence of asymptomatic patients at admission and the detailed symptoms of mild COVID-19 were evaluated through a questionnaire-based survey. Diagnosis of COVID-19 was confirmed by real-time RT-PCR.ResultsOf the 213 individuals with COVID-19, 41 (19.2%) were asymptomatic until admission. Among the remaining patients with mild COVID-19, the most common symptom was cough (40.1%; 69/172), followed by hyposmia (39.5%; 68/172) and sputum (39.5%; 68/172). Of the 68 individuals with hyposmia, 61 (90%) had accompanying symptoms such as hypogeusia, nasal congestion or rhinorrhoea. Fever (>37.5°C) was only observed in 20 (11.6%) individuals.ConclusionsAs much as one-fifth of individuals with COVID-19 remained asymptomatic from exposure to admission. Hyposmia was quite frequent among individuals with mild COVID-19, but fever was not. Social distancing should be strongly implemented to prevent disease transmission from asymptomatic individuals or those with mild and inconspicuous symptoms.
| S-EPMC7252018 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza infection manifests in a wide spectrum of severity, including symptomless pathogen carriers. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 studies to elucidate the proportional representation of these asymptomatic infected persons. We observed extensive heterogeneity among these studies. The prevalence of asymptomatic carriage (total absence of symptoms) ranged from 5.2% to 35.5% and subclinical cases (illness that did not meet the criteria for acute respiratory or influenza-like illness) from 25.4% to 61.8%. Statistical analysis showed that the heterogeneity could not be explained by the type of influenza, the laboratory tests used to detect the virus, the year of the study, or the location of the study. Projections of infection spread and strategies for disease control require that we identify the proportional representation of these insidious spreaders early on in the emergence of new influenza subtypes or strains and track how this rate evolves over time and space.
| S-EPMC4880086 | biostudies-literature