COVID-19 case fatality rate and tuberculosis in a metropolitan setting.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Rojas-Bolivar D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8013772 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveAnalyze a set of indicators to understand the variability of the evolution and impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in a set of selected countries.MethodEcological study of a group of countries with more than 200 reported cases. Demographic variables, health expenditure variables, and variables about characteristics of health services were included as explanatory variables. and incidence, mortality and fatality rates have been analyzed as response variables. In addition, a relative fatality index has been created. Data are from international organizations. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the magnitude of the associations.ResultsNumber of tests and of medical professionals are associated with a higher incidence rate. Mortality and case fatality rate are not associated with demographic, health expenditure, or health services variables.ConclusionDifferences suggest a general underestimation of the magnitude of the epidemic. Improvement of case identification and effectiveness of epidemiological surveillance systems is necessary.
| S-EPMC7129244 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 has spread worldwide, there is much concern over the mortality rate that the infection induces. Available data suggest that COVID-19 case fatality rate had varied temporally (as the epidemic has progressed) and spatially (among countries). Here, we attempted to identify key factors possibly explaining the variability in case fatality rate across countries. We used data on the temporal trajectory of case fatality rate provided by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, and country-specific data on different metrics describing the incidence of known comorbidity factors associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality at the individual level. We also compiled data on demography, economy and political regimes for each country. We found that temporal trajectories of case fatality rate greatly vary among countries. We found several factors associated with temporal changes in case fatality rate both among variables describing comorbidity risk and demographic, economic and political variables. In particular, countries with the highest values of DALYs lost to cardiovascular, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases had the highest values of COVID-19 CFR. CFR was also positively associated with the death rate due to smoking in people over 70 years. Interestingly, CFR was negatively associated with share of death due to lower respiratory infections. Among the demographic, economic and political variables, CFR was positively associated with share of the population over 70, GDP per capita, and level of democracy, while it was negatively associated with number of hospital beds ×1000. Overall, these results emphasize the role of comorbidity and socio-economic factors as possible drivers of COVID-19 case fatality rate at the population level.
| S-EPMC7609641 | biostudies-literature
Project description:When the population risk factors and reporting systems are similar, the assessment of the case-fatality (or lethality) rate (ratio of cases to deaths) represents a perfect tool for analyzing, understanding and improving the overall efficiency of the health system. The objective of this article is to estimate the influence of the hospital care system on lethality in metropolitan France during the inception of the COVID-19 epidemic, by analyzing the spatial variability of the hospital case-fatality rate (CFR) between French districts. In theory, the hospital age-standardized CFR should not display significant differences between districts, since hospital lethality depends on the virulence of the pathogen (the SARS-CoV-2 virus), the vulnerability of the population (mainly age-related), the healthcare system quality, and cases and deaths definition and the recording accuracy. We analyzed hospital data on COVID-19 hospitalizations, severity (admission to intensive care units for reanimation or endotracheal intubation) and mortality, from March 19 to May 8 corresponding to the first French lockdown. All rates were age-standardized to eliminate differences in districts age structure. The results show that the higher case-fatality rates observed by districts are mostly related to the level of morbidity. Time analysis shows that the case-fatality rate has decreased over time, globally and in almost all districts, showing an improvement in the management of severe patients during the epidemic. In conclusion, it appears that during the first critical phase of COVID-19 ramping epidemic in metropolitan France, the higher case-fatality rates were generally related to the higher level of hospitalization, then potentially related to the overload of healthcare system. Also, low hospitalization with high case-fatality rates were mostly found in districts with low population density, and could due to some limitation of the local healthcare access. However, the magnitude of this increase of case-fatality rate represents less than 10 per cent of the average case-fatality rate, and this variation is small compared to much greater variation across countries reported in the literature.
| S-EPMC7737987 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still rapidly spreading globally. To probe high-risk cities and the impacts of air pollution on public health, this study explores the relationship between the long-term average concentration of air pollution and the city-level case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 globally. Then, geographically weighted regression (GWR) is applied to examine the spatial variability of the relationships. Six air pollution factors, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), PM2.5 (particles with diameter ≤2.5 μm), PM10 (particles with diameter ≤10 μm), and air quality index (AQI), are positively associated with the city-level COVID-19 CFR. Our results indicate that a 1-unit increase in NO2 (part per billion, PPB), SO2 (PPB), O3 (PPB), PM2.5 (microgram per cubic meter, μg/m3), PM10 (μg/m3), AQI (score), is related to a 1.450%, 1.005%, 0.992%, 0.860%, 0.568%, and 0.776% increase in the city-level COVID-19 CFR, respectively. Additionally, the effects of NO2, O3, PM2.5, AQI, and probability of living with poor AQI on COVID-19 spatially vary in view of the estimation of the GWR. In other words, the adverse impacts of air pollution on health are different among the cities. In summary, long-term exposure to air pollution is negatively related to the COVID-19 health outcome, and the relationship is spatially non-stationary. Our research sheds light on the impacts of slashing air pollution on public health in the COVID-19 pandemic to help governments formulate air pollution policies in light of the local situations.
| S-EPMC8724597 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The first COVID-19 case in Nepal was reported on January 23, 2020. Then infection, then, started to spread gradually, and October marked the most devastating increase in COVID-19 cases of the year 2020. Compared with the October 2020 peak in Nepal, the May 2021 peak of COVID-19 observed 2- and 10-fold rise in new cases and deaths per day, respectively. Given that this surprising increase in the death rate was not observed in other countries, this study analyzed the COVID-19 case fatality rates between the two peaks in Nepal. We found an increase in death rates among younger adults and people without comorbidities.
| S-EPMC8653381 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To confirm whether a relationship exists between male sex and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality and whether this relationship is age dependent. PATIENTS AND METHODS:We queried the COVID-19 Research Network, a multinational database using the TriNetX network, to identify patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection. The main end point of the study was all-cause mortality. RESULTS:A total of 14,712 patients were included, of whom 6387 (43%) were men. Men were older (mean age, 55.0±17.7 years vs 51.1±17.9 years; P<.001) and had a higher prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, obstructive pulmonary disease, nicotine dependence, and heart failure but a lower prevalence of obesity. Before propensity score matching (PSM), all-cause mortality rate was 8.8% in men and 4.3% in women (odds ratio, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.87 to 2.46; P<.001) at a median follow-up duration of 34 and 32 days, respectively. In the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the cumulative probability of survival was significantly lower in men than in women (73% vs 86%; log-rank, P<.001). After PSM, all-cause mortality remained significantly higher in men than in women (8.13% vs 4.60%; odds ratio, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.55 to 2.11; P<.001). In the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the cumulative probability of survival remained significantly lower in men than in women (74% vs 86%; log-rank, P<.001). The cumulative probability of survival remained significantly lower in propensity score-matched men than in women after excluding patients younger than 50 years and those who were taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker medications on admission. CONCLUSION:Among patients with COVID-19 infection, men had a significantly higher mortality than did women, and this difference was not completely explained by the higher prevalence of comorbidities in men.
| S-EPMC7256502 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The objective of this study was to evaluate the trend of reported case fatality rate (rCFR) of COVID-19 over time, using globally reported COVID-19 cases and mortality data. We collected daily COVID-19 diagnoses and mortality data from the WHO's daily situation reports dated January 1 to December 31, 2020. We performed three time-series models [simple exponential smoothing, auto-regressive integrated moving average, and automatic forecasting time-series (Prophet)] to identify the global trend of rCFR for COVID-19. We used beta regression models to investigate the association between the rCFR and potential predictors of each country and reported incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of each variable. The weekly global cumulative COVID-19 rCFR reached a peak at 7.23% during the 17th week (April 22-28, 2020). We found a positive and increasing trend for global daily rCFR values of COVID-19 until the 17th week (pre-peak period) and then a strong declining trend up until the 53rd week (post-peak period) toward 2.2% (December 29-31, 2020). In pre-peak of rCFR, the percentage of people aged 65 and above and the prevalence of obesity were significantly associated with the COVID-19 rCFR. The declining trend of global COVID-19 rCFR was not merely because of increased COVID-19 testing, because COVID-19 tests per 1,000 population had poor predictive value. Decreasing rCFR could be explained by an increased rate of infection in younger people or by the improvement of health care management, shielding from infection, and/or repurposing of several drugs that had shown a beneficial effect on reducing fatality because of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8176487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This work is motivated by the recent worldwide pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). When an epidemiological disease is prevalent, estimating the case fatality rate, the proportion of deaths out of the total cases, accurately and quickly is important as the case fatality rate is one of the crucial indicators of the risk of a disease. In this work, we propose an alternative estimator of the case fatality rate that provides more accurate estimate during an outbreak by reducing the downward bias (underestimation) of the naive CFR, the proportion of deaths out of confirmed cases at each time point, which is the most commonly used estimator due to the simplicity. The proposed estimator is designed to achieve the availability of real-time update by using the commonly reported quantities, the numbers of confirmed, cured, deceased cases, in the computation. To enhance the accuracy, the proposed estimator adapts a stratification, which allows the estimator to use information from heterogeneous strata separately. By the COVID-19 cases of China, South Korea and the United States, we numerically show the proposed stratification-based estimator plays a role of providing an early warning about the severity of a epidemiological disease that estimates the final case fatality rate accurately and shows faster convergence to the final case fatality rate.
| S-EPMC7899354 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This article contains data on country-specific variability in Covid-19 prevalence, incidence, and case fatality rate among the 238 countries globally. We used the World Health Organization worldwide Covid-19 tracking site to determine the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, the number of fatalities attributed to Covid-19, and the case fatality rate for each of 238 countries. Using data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, we extracted key country-specific metrics with potential associations with Covid-19 including total population, land area, population density, percentage of residents living in urban areas, and median age. We extracted country-specific economic indicators from The World Bank Group Open Data database. All data were extracted on August 15, 2020. We developed consolidated data sets and calculated the country-specific point prevalence and incidence of Covid-19 and associated deaths. These data are associated with the article "Spatial Analysis of Global Variability in Covid-19 Burden". Data are stored in a comma separated value format and can be downloaded from the Data in Brief website.
| S-EPMC7495013 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Patients with cancer are presumed to be at increased risk from COVID-19 infection-related fatality due to underlying malignancy, treatment-related immunosuppression, or increased comorbidities. A total of 218 COVID-19-positive patients from March 18, 2020, to April 8, 2020, with a malignant diagnosis were identified. A total of 61 (28%) patients with cancer died from COVID-19 with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 37% (20/54) for hematologic malignancies and 25% (41/164) for solid malignancies. Six of 11 (55%) patients with lung cancer died from COVID-19 disease. Increased mortality was significantly associated with older age, multiple comorbidities, need for ICU support, and elevated levels of D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase, and lactate in multivariate analysis. Age-adjusted CFRs in patients with cancer compared with noncancer patients at our institution and New York City reported a significant increase in case fatality for patients with cancer. These data suggest the need for proactive strategies to reduce likelihood of infection and improve early identification in this vulnerable patient population. SIGNIFICANCE: COVID-19 in patients with cancer is associated with a significantly increased risk of case fatality, suggesting the need for proactive strategies to reduce likelihood of infection and improve early identification in this vulnerable patient population.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 890.
| S-EPMC7334098 | biostudies-literature