Project description:The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent mitigation strategies have varied across the Nordic countries. In a joint Nordic population-based effort, we compared patterns of new cancer cases and notifications between the Nordic countries during 2020. We used pathology notifications to cancer registries in Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to determine monthly numbers of pathology notifications of malignant and in situ tumours from January to December 2020 compared to 2019 (2017-2019 for Iceland and the Faroe Islands). We compared new cancer cases per month based on unique individuals with pathology notifications. In April and May 2020, the numbers of new malignant cases declined in all Nordic countries, except the Faroe Islands, compared to previous year(s). The largest reduction was observed in Sweden (May: -31.2%, 95% CI -33.9, -28.3), followed by significant declines in Finland, Denmark and Norway, and a nonsignificant decline in Iceland. In Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland the reporting rates during the second half of 2020 rose to almost the same level as in 2019. However, in Sweden and Finland, the increase did not compensate for the spring decline (annual reduction -6.2% and -3.6%, respectively). Overall, similar patterns were observed for in situ tumours. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in rates of new cancer cases in Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway, with the most pronounced reduction in Sweden. Possible explanations include the severity of the pandemic, temporary halting of screening activities and changes in healthcare seeking behaviour.
Project description:INTRODUCTION:Understanding who heeds the driving-related COVID-19 restrictions is critical for assisting public health professionals improve response to this and future pandemic events. The purpose of the current study was to characterize driving behavior changes among adolescents as a function of COVID-19 restrictions. It was hypothesized that adolescent driving would be reduced by COVID-19 restrictions, especially for younger teens, non-minorities, females, non-working teens, and those with higher prosocial tendencies. METHODS:Participants were licensed drivers in "REACT," a longitudinal study of adolescent driving attention. Upon enrollment in REACT, drivers were required to be age 16 or 18, have been issued a driver's license within the last two weeks, and be fluent in written/spoken English. The current observational cohort study was of drivers reporting driving exposure between February 8 and April 22, 2020. Linear mixed-effects models estimated differences in driving changes between COVID-19 periods. RESULTS:Results indicated a decrease across pre-COVID-19 period (February 8 - March 13, 2020) in days driven per week and vehicle miles driven (VMD) was explained by the change of slope post-COVID-19 restrictions (March 14 - April 22, 2020). Post-COVID-19, driving days per week decreased by 37 % and VMD decreased by 35 %. This decrease was lower in ethnic minorities, older adolescents, and employed adolescents. Those with greater dire prosocial tendencies showed greater post-COVID-19 driving decline. DISCUSSION:Findings provide early evidence of COVID-19 restriction-related adolescent driving changes suggesting older, employed, minority teens and teens with lower prosocial tendencies are less likely to reduce driving behavior. These observations provide a foundation for more extensive studies of adolescent drivers during various driving and contact restrictions and inform future public health campaigns for social distancing.
Project description:We evaluated the effects of the coronavirus disease pandemic on diagnosis of and treatment for tuberculosis (TB) in Vietnam. We obtained quarterly notifications for TB and multidrug-resistant/rifampin-resistant (MDR/RR) TB from 2015-2020 and evaluated changes in monthly TB case notifications. We used an interrupted time series to assess the change in notifications and treatment outcomes. Overall, TB case notifications were 8% lower in 2020 than in 2019; MDR/RR TB notifications were 1% lower. TB case notifications decreased by 364 (95% CI -1,236 to 508) notifications per quarter and MDR/RR TB by 1 (95% CI -129 to 132) notification per quarter. The proportion of successful TB treatment outcomes decreased by 0.1% per quarter (95% CI -1.1% to 0.8%) in 2020 compared with previous years. Our study suggests that Vietnam was able to maintain its TB response in 2020, despite the pandemic.
Project description:ObjectiveTo identify behavioural drivers and barriers that may have contributed to changes in ED attendance during the first 10 months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Victoria.MethodsWe conducted a mixed methods analysis of patients who attended one of eight participating EDs between 1 November 2019 and 31 December 2020. A random sample of patients were chosen after their visit and invited to participate in an online survey assessing behavioural drivers and barriers to attendance. The study timespan was divided into four periods based on local and world events to assess changes in attitudes and behaviours over this period.ResultsA total of 5600 patients were invited to complete the survey and 606 (11%) submitted sufficient information for analysis. There were significant differences in participants' attitudes towards healthcare and EDs, levels of concern about contracting and spreading COVID-19 and the influence of mask wearing. Patients expressed more concern about the safety of an ED during the largest outbreak of COVID-19 infections than they did pre-COVID, but this difference was not sustained once community infection numbers dropped. General concerns about hospital attendance were higher after COVID than they were pre-COVID. A total of 27% of patients specifically stated that they had delayed their ED attendance.ConclusionPatients expressed increased concerns around attending ED during the first 10 months of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and frequently cited COVID-19 as a reason for delaying their presentation. These factors would be amenable to mitigation via focussed public health messaging.
Project description:BackgroundPolicy responses to COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia over 2020-2021 have been supported by evidence generated through mathematical modelling. This study describes the design, key findings, and process for policy translation of a series of modelling studies conducted for the Victorian Department of Health COVID-19 response team during this period.MethodsAn agent-based model, Covasim, was used to simulate the impact of policy interventions on COVID-19 outbreaks and epidemic waves. The model was continually adapted to enable scenario analysis of settings or policies being considered at the time (e.g. elimination of community transmission versus disease control). Model scenarios were co-designed with government, to fill evidence gaps prior to key decisions.ResultsUnderstanding outbreak risk following incursions was critical to eliminating community COVID-19 transmission. Analyses showed risk depended on whether the first detected case was the index case, a primary contact of the index case, or a 'mystery case'. There were benefits of early lockdown on first case detection and gradual easing of restrictions to minimise resurgence risk from undetected cases. As vaccination coverage increased and the focus shifted to controlling rather than eliminating community transmission, understanding health system demand was critical. Analyses showed that vaccines alone could not protect health systems and need to be complemented with other public health measures.ConclusionsModel evidence offered the greatest value when decisions needed to be made pre-emptively, or for questions that could not be answered with empiric data and data analysis alone. Co-designing scenarios with policy-makers ensured relevance and increased policy translation.
Project description:BackgroundDengue is the major mosquito-borne disease in Sri Lanka. After its first detection in January 2020, COVID-19 has become the major health issue in Sri Lanka. The impact of public health measures, notably restrictions on movement of people to curb COVID-19 transmission, on the incidence of dengue during the period March 2020 to April 2021 was investigated.MethodsThe incidence of dengue and COVID-19, rainfall and the public movement restrictions implemented to contain COVID-19 transmission were obtained from Sri Lanka government sources. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to predict the monthly dengue incidence from March 2020 to April 2021 for each of the country's 25 districts based on five years of pre-pandemic data, and compared with the actual recorded incidence of dengue during this period. Ovitrap collections of Aedes larvae were performed in Jaffna city in the Jaffna district from August 2020 to April 2021 and the findings compared with similar collections made in the pre-pandemic period from March 2019 to December 2019.ResultsThe recorded numbers of dengue cases for every month from March 2020 to April 2021 in the whole country and for all 25 districts over the same period were lower than the numbers of dengue cases predicted from data for the five years (2015-2019) immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of dengue cases recorded nationwide represented a 74% reduction from the predicted number of dengue cases for the March 2020 to April 2021 period. The numbers of Aedes larvae collected from ovitraps per month were reduced by 88.6% with a lower proportion of Ae. aegypti than Ae. albopictus in Jaffna city from August 2020 until April 2021 compared with March 2019 to December 2019.ConclusionPublic health measures that restricted movement of people, closed schools, universities and offices to contain COVID-19 transmission unexpectedly led to a significant reduction in the reported numbers of dengue cases in Sri Lanka. This contrasts with findings reported from Singapore. The differences between the two tropical islands have significant implications for the epidemiology of dengue. Reduced access to blood meals and lower vector densities, particularly of Ae. aegypti, resulting from the restrictions on movement of people, are suggested to have contributed to the lower dengue incidence in Sri Lanka.
Project description:Public health travel restrictions (PHTR) are crucial measures during communicable disease outbreaks to prevent transmission during commercial airline travel and mitigate cross-border importation and spread. We evaluated PHTR implementation for US citizens on the Diamond Princess during its coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Japan in February 2020 to explore how PHTR reduced importation of COVID-19 to the United States during the early phase of disease containment. Using PHTR required substantial collaboration among the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, other US government agencies, the cruise line, and public health authorities in Japan. Original US PHTR removal criteria were modified to reflect international testing protocols and enable removal of PHTR for persons who recovered from illness. The impact of PHTR on epidemic trajectory depends on the risk for transmission during travel and geographic spread of disease. Lessons learned from the Diamond Princess outbreak provide critical information for future PHTR use.
Project description:More than half of the human population lives in cities and therefore predominantly experience nature in urban greenspace, an important contributor to wellbeing. As the world faces a pandemic which threatens the physical and mental health of billions of people, it is crucial to understand that all have the possibility to access nature exposure to alleviate some of these challenges. Here, for the first time, we integrate data from Facebook, Twitter, and Google Search users to show that people looked for greenspace during COVID-19 mobility restrictions but may not have always managed to reach it. We used a longitudinal approach, replicated in three European cities, to assess whether people spent more time in locations with more greenspace, and whether this change in urban density remained for the whole pandemic, pre-vaccine, period. We coupled this human density study with a longitudinal study of web search patterns for Parks and online discussion about urban greenspace. People searched for Parks near them more during the pandemic, particularly when they were allowed to visit them. They discussed in positive terms greenspace particularly more at the start of the pandemic. People spent more time in areas with greenspace when they could and that depended on the level of multiple deprivation of their neighbourhood. Importantly, while people sought greenspace throughout the first 20 months of the pandemic, this preference intensified through the waves of lockdown. Living in an affluent area conferred a greenspace advantage in London and Paris but we find that in Berlin greenspace in more deprived neighbourhoods were used more. Overall, urban greenspace occupied a greater place in people's lives during the pandemic. Whether people could realise greenspace access depended on the deprivation level of the neighbourhood. Public greenspace access should be integrated in national indices of deprivation given its importance for wellbeing.
Project description:BackgroundItaly was the first country after China to be severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2020. The country responded swiftly to the outbreak with a nationwide two-step lockdown, the first one light and the second one tight. By analyzing 2020 national mobile phone movements, we assessed how lockdown compliance influenced its efficacy.MethodsWe measured individual mobility during the first epidemic wave with mobile phone movements tracked through carrier networks, and related this mobility to daily new SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions, intensive care admissions and deaths attributed to COVID-19, taking into account reason for travel (work-related or not) and the means of transport.ResultsThe tight lockdown resulted in an 82% reduction in mobility for the entire country and was effective in swiftly curbing the outbreak as indicated by a shorter time-to-peak of all health outcomes, particularly for provinces with the highest mobility reductions and the most intense COVID-19 spread. Reduction of work-related mobility was accompanied by a nearly linear benefit in outbreak containment; work-unrelated movements had a similar effect only for restrictions exceeding 50%. Reduction in mobility by car and by airplane was nearly linearly associated with a decrease in most COVID-19 health outcomes, while for train travel reductions exceeding 55% had no additional beneficial effects. The absence of viral variants and vaccine availability during the study period eliminated confounding from these two sources.ConclusionsAdherence to the COVID-19 tight lockdown during the first wave in Italy was high and effective in curtailing the outbreak. Any work-related mobility reduction was effective, but only high reductions in work-unrelated mobility restrictions were effective. For train travel, there was a threshold above which no further benefit occurred. These findings could be particular to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, but might also apply to other communicable infections with comparable transmission dynamics.
Project description:International data suggest that exposure to nature is beneficial for mental health and well-being. The restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic have created a setting that allows us to investigate the importance of greenness exposure on mental health during a period of increased isolation and worry. Based on 2060 responses from an online survey in Stockholm County, Sweden, we investigated: (1) whether the COVID-19 pandemic changed peoples' lifestyle and nature-related habits, and (2) if peoples' mental health differed depending on their exposure to greenness. Neighborhood greenness levels were quantified by using the average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) within 50 m, 100 m, 300 m, and 500 m buffers surrounding the participant's place of residence. We found that the number of individuals that reported that they visited natural areas "often" was significantly higher during the pandemic than before the pandemic. Higher levels of greenness surrounding one's location of residence were in general associated with higher mental health/well-being and vitality scores, and less symptoms of depression, anxiety, and perceived and cognitive stress, after adjustments for demographic variables and walkability. In conclusion, the results from the present study provided support to the suggestion that contact with nature may be important for mental health in extreme circumstances.