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Health and economic impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in hindering antimicrobial resistance in China.

ABSTRACT: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a serious threat to global public health. However, vaccinations have been largely undervalued as a method to hinder AMR progression. This study examined the AMR impact of increasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) coverage in China. China has one of the world's highest rates of antibiotic use and low PCV coverage. We developed an agent-based DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model to examine the health and economic benefits of slowing AMR against commonly used antibiotics. We simulated PCV coverage, pneumococcal infections, antibiotic use, and AMR accumulation. Four antibiotics to treat pneumococcal diseases (penicillin, amoxicillin, third-generation cephalosporins, and meropenem) were modeled with antibiotic utilization, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics factored into predicting AMR accumulation. Three PCV coverage scenarios were simulated over 5 y: 1) status quo with no change in coverage, 2) scaled coverage increase to 99% in 5 y, and 3) accelerated coverage increase to 85% over 2 y followed by 3 y to reach 99% coverage. Compared to the status quo, we found that AMR against penicillin, amoxicillin, and third-generation cephalosporins was significantly reduced by 6.6%, 10.9%, and 9.8% in the scaled scenario and by 10.5%, 17.0%, and 15.4% in the accelerated scenario. Cumulative costs due to AMR, including direct and indirect costs to patients and caretakers, were reduced by $371 million in the scaled and $586 million in the accelerated scenarios compared to the status quo. AMR-reducing benefits of vaccines are essential to quantify in order to drive appropriate investment.

SUBMITTER: Lu EY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8020802 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionAlthough the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been introduced into select state immunization programs (SIPs) in India, many children remain unvaccinated. Recently, India's Advisory Committee on Vaccines & Immunization Practices recommended PCV on the pediatric immunization schedule nationally. This study estimates the public health and economic impact of introducing either Pfizer's 13-valent PCV (PCV13-PFE), GlaxoSmithKline's 10-valent PCV (PCV10-GSK), or Serum Institute of India's 10-valent PCV (PCV10-SII) into every pediatric SIP.MethodsA model was developed to predict the disease cases, deaths, and costs associated with implementing PCV13-PFE, PCV10-GSK, or PCV10-SII in SIPs compared to no vaccination program across a 5-year period (2021-2025). State and national-level uptake rate and clinical and economic input parameters were collected from published literature. Disease outcomes included invasive pneumococcal disease, inpatient and outpatient pneumonia, and otitis media. Costs were estimated as vaccine-related costs and direct medical costs incurred to the healthcare system. Results were reported by individual state and aggregated nationally.ResultsEstimated over 5 years, implementing PCV13-PFE in SIPs could avert 12.1 million cases and save 626,512 lives among children under 5 years old compared to no vaccination. This corresponds to net national cost savings of over $1.0 billion. Both lower-valent PCVs are estimated to provide less economic savings than PCV13-PFE inclusive of vaccine-related costs. Compared with PCV13-PFE, implementing PCV10-GSK or PCV10-SII nationally is estimated to have a smaller public health impact, with PCV10-GSK averting 8.4 million cases (436,577 deaths) and PCV10-SII preventing 10.3 million cases (531,545 deaths) in India compared to no vaccination, respectively.ConclusionImplementation of PCV13-PFE throughout India is estimated to provide greater public health and economic benefits than PCV10-GSK or PCV10-SII SIPs. Our analysis highlights the substantial disease cases, deaths, and health system cost savings that may be realized from implementing PCV programs throughout India.

Project description:Background: Invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal diseases are significant health and economic burdens, especially in children and the elderly. Italy included the 7-valent (PCV7) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in the National Immunization Program in 2007 and 2010, respectively, allowing a dramatic reduction in the burden of pneumococcal disease. In the era of budget constraints, decision-makers may consider switching from the higher-valent, more costly PCV13, to the lower-cost PCV10. This study estimated the potential public health and economic impact of changing vaccine programs from PCV13 to PCV10 in Italy. Methods: A decision-analytic forecasting model estimated the impact of PCV programs. Real-world surveillance data were used to forecast serotype distribution and disease incidence among children and the elderly over a specified 5-year time horizon. Costs and outcomes included estimates of cases and deaths avoided, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and total costs from a payer perspective, discounted at an assumed rate of 3.0%, and robustness validated through several scenarios and sensitivity analyses. Results: A switch from PCV13 to PCV10 would increase invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases by 59.3% (4317 cases) over a 5-year horizon, primarily due to serotypes 3 and 19A. Pneumonia increased by 8.3% and acute otitis media (AOM) by 96.1%. Maintaining a PCV13 program would prevent a total incremental 531,435 disease cases (1.02M over a 10-year time horizon) and 641 deaths due to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), with €23,642 per QALY gained over 5 years versus PCV10. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that a PCV13-based program remained cost-effective in 99.7% of the simulations in Italy as parameters varied within their plausible range; percent vaccinated had the most impact. Conclusions: Maintaining the PCV13 strategy would provide substantial public health and economic benefits in Italy and is cost-effective. Switching from PCV13 to PCV10 would increase the incidence of pneumococcal disease primarily linked to re-emergence of serotypes 3 and 19A.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Antimicrobial resistance is a public-health threat and antimicrobial consumption is the main contributor. The ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10) was introduced into the Icelandic vaccination program in 2011. The aim was to estimate the vaccine impact of PHiD-CV10 on outpatient antimicrobial prescriptions in children. METHODS:Eleven Icelandic birth-cohorts (2005-2015) were followed from birth until three years of age or to the end of the study period (December 31, 2016). Birth-cohorts were grouped as vaccine non-eligible (VNEC, 2005-2010) or vaccine eligible (VEC, 2011-2015). Data on primary care visits for respiratory infections and antimicrobial prescriptions were extracted from two national registers. Using national identification numbers, prescriptions were linked to physician visits if filled within three days of the visit. Incidence rates and incidence rate ratios between VNEC and VEC were calculated. An Andersen-Gill model was used to model the individual level data, accounting for repeated events and censoring. Vaccine impact was calculated as (1 - Hazard Ratio) ×?100%. RESULTS:Included were 53,510 children who contributed 151,992 person-years of follow-up and filled 231,660 antimicrobial prescriptions. The incidence rate was significantly lower in the VEC compared to the VNEC, 144.5 and 157.2 prescriptions per 100 person-years respectively (IRR 0.92, 95%CI 0.91-0.93). Children in VEC were more likely to have filled zero (IRR 1.16 (95%CI 1.10-1.23) and 1-4 (IRR 1.08 95%CI 1.06-1.11) prescriptions compared to children in VNEC. The vaccine impact of PHiD-CV10 against all-cause antimicrobial prescriptions was 5.8% (95%CI 1.6-9.8%).When only considering acute otitis media-associated prescriptions, the vaccine impact was 21.8% (95%CI 11.5-30.9%). CONCLUSION:The introduction of PHiD-CV10 lead to reduced antimicrobial use in children, mainly by reducing acute otitis media episodes. This intervention therefore reduces both disease burden and could slow the spread of antimicrobial resistance.

Project description:BackgroundInvasive pneumococcal disease declined among children and adults after the introduction of the pediatric heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in 2000, but its effect on pneumococcal meningitis is unclear.MethodsWe examined trends in pneumococcal meningitis from 1998 through 2005 using active, population-based surveillance data from eight sites in the United States. Isolates were grouped into PCV7 serotypes (4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F), PCV7-related serotypes (6A, 9A, 9L, 9N, 18A, 18B, 18F, 19B, 19C, 23A, and 23B), and non-PCV7 serotypes (all others). Changes in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis were assessed against baseline values from 1998-1999.ResultsWe identified 1379 cases of pneumococcal meningitis. The incidence declined from 1.13 cases to 0.79 case per 100,000 persons between 1998-1999 and 2004-2005 (a 30.1% decline, P<0.001). Among persons younger than 2 years of age and those 65 years of age or older, the incidence decreased during the study period by 64.0% and 54.0%, respectively (P<0.001 for both groups). Rates of PCV7-serotype meningitis declined from 0.66 case to 0.18 case (a 73.3% decline, P<0.001) among patients of all ages. Although rates of PCV7-related-serotype disease decreased by 32.1% (P=0.08), rates of non-PCV7-serotype disease increased from 0.32 to 0.51 (an increase of 60.5%, P<0.001). The percentages of cases from non-PCV7 serotypes 19A, 22F, and 35B each increased significantly during the study period. On average, 27.8% of isolates were nonsusceptible to penicillin, but fewer isolates were nonsusceptible to chloramphenicol (5.7%), meropenem (16.6%), and cefotaxime (11.8%). The proportion of penicillin-nonsusceptible isolates decreased between 1998 and 2003 (from 32.0% to 19.4%, P=0.01) but increased between 2003 and 2005 (from 19.4% to 30.1%, P=0.03).ConclusionsRates of pneumococcal meningitis have decreased among children and adults since PCV7 was introduced. Although the overall effect of the vaccine remains substantial, a recent increase in meningitis caused by non-PCV7 serotypes, including strains nonsusceptible to antibiotics, is a concern.

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Health and economic impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in hindering antimicrobial resistance in China.

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