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Novel anti-malarial drug strategies to prevent artemisinin partner drug resistance: A model-based analysis.

ABSTRACT: Emergence of resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs in the Greater Mekong Subregion has made elimination of malaria from this region a global priority; it also complicates its achievement. Novel drug strategies such as triple artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) and chemoprophylaxis have been proposed to help limit resistance and accelerate elimination. The objective of this study was to better understand the potential impacts of triple ACTs and chemoprophylaxis, using a mathematical model parameterized using data from Cambodia. We used a simple compartmental model to predict trends in malaria incidence and resistance in Cambodia from 2020-2025 assuming no changes in transmission since 2018. We assessed three scenarios: a status quo scenario with artesunate-mefloquine (ASMQ) as treatment; a triple ACT scenario with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) plus mefloquine (MQ) as treatment; and a chemoprophylaxis scenario with ASMQ as treatment plus DP as chemoprophylaxis. We predicted MQ resistance to increase under the status quo scenario. Triple ACT treatment reversed the spread of MQ resistance, but had no impact on overall malaria incidence. Joint MQ-PPQ resistance declined under the status quo scenario for the baseline parameter set and most sensitivity analyses. Compared to the status quo, triple ACT treatment limited spread of MQ resistance but also slowed declines in PPQ resistance in some sensitivity analyses. The chemoprophylaxis scenario decreased malaria incidence, but increased the spread of strains resistant to both MQ and PPQ; both effects began to reverse after the intervention was removed. We conclude that triple ACTs may limit spread of MQ resistance in the Cambodia, but would have limited impact on malaria incidence and might slow declines in PPQ resistance. Chemoprophylaxis could have greater impact on incidence but also carries higher risks of resistance. Aggressive strategies to limit transmission the GMS are needed to achieve elimination goals, but any intervention should be accompanied by monitoring for drug resistance.

SUBMITTER: Kunkel A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8023453 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMost malaria-endemic countries are implementing a change in anti-malarial drug policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). The impact of different drug choices and implementation strategies is uncertain. Data from many epidemiological studies in different levels of malaria endemicity and in areas with the highest prevalence of drug resistance like borders of Thailand are certainly valuable. Formulating an appropriate dynamic data-driven model is a powerful predictive tool for exploring the impact of these strategies quantitatively.MethodsA comprehensive model was constructed incorporating important epidemiological and biological factors of human, mosquito, parasite and treatment. The iterative process of developing the model, identifying data needed, and parameterization has been taken to strongly link the model to the empirical evidence. The model provides quantitative measures of outcomes, such as malaria prevalence/incidence and treatment failure, and illustrates the spread of resistance in low and high transmission settings. The model was used to evaluate different anti-malarial policy options focusing on ACT deployment.ResultsThe model predicts robustly that in low transmission settings drug resistance spreads faster than in high transmission settings, and treatment failure is the main force driving the spread of drug resistance. In low transmission settings, ACT slows the spread of drug resistance to a partner drug, especially at high coverage rates. This effect decreases exponentially with increasing delay in deploying the ACT and decreasing rates of coverage. In the high transmission settings, however, drug resistance is driven by the proportion of the human population with a residual drug level, which gives resistant parasites some survival advantage. The spread of drug resistance could be slowed down by controlling presumptive drug use and avoiding the use of combination therapies containing drugs with mismatched half-lives, together with reducing malaria transmission through vector control measures.ConclusionThis paper has demonstrated the use of a comprehensive mathematical model to describe malaria transmission and the spread of drug resistance. The model is strongly linked to the empirical evidence obtained from extensive data available from various sources. This model can be a useful tool to inform the design of treatment policies, particularly at a time when ACT has been endorsed by WHO as first-line treatment for falciparum malaria worldwide.

Project description:BackgroundArtemisinin-resistant genotypes of Plasmodium falciparum have now emerged a minimum of six times on three continents despite recommendations that all artemisinins be deployed as artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). Widespread resistance to the non-artemisinin partner drugs in ACTs has the potential to limit the clinical and resistance benefits provided by combination therapy. We aimed to model and evaluate the long-term effects of high levels of partner-drug resistance on the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant genotypes.MethodsUsing a consensus modelling approach, we used three individual-based mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum transmission to evaluate the effects of pre-existing partner-drug resistance and ACT deployment on the evolution of artemisinin resistance. Each model simulates 100 000 individuals in a particular transmission setting (malaria prevalence of 1%, 5%, 10%, or 20%) with a daily time step that updates individuals' infection status, treatment status, immunity, genotype-specific parasite densities, and clinical state. We modelled varying access to antimalarial drugs if febrile (coverage of 20%, 40%, or 60%) with one primary ACT used as first-line therapy: dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHA-PPQ), artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ), or artemether-lumefantrine (AL). The primary outcome was time until 0·25 580Y allele frequency for artemisinin resistance (the establishment time).FindingsHigher frequencies of pre-existing partner-drug resistant genotypes lead to earlier establishment of artemisinin resistance. Across all models, a 10-fold increase in the frequency of partner-drug resistance genotypes on average corresponded to loss of artemisinin efficacy 2-12 years earlier. Most reductions in time to artemisinin resistance establishment were observed after an increase in frequency of the partner-drug resistance genotype from 0·0 to 0·10.InterpretationPartner-drug resistance in ACTs facilitates the early emergence of artemisinin resistance and is a major public health concern. Higher-grade partner-drug resistance has the largest effect, with piperaquine resistance accelerating the early emergence of artemisinin-resistant alleles the most. Continued investment in molecular surveillance of partner-drug resistant genotypes to guide choice of first-line ACT is paramount.FundingSchmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Wellcome Trust.

Project description:BackgroundPreventing the emergence of anti-malarial drug resistance is critical for the success of current malaria elimination efforts. Prevention strategies have focused predominantly on qualitative factors, such as choice of drugs, use of combinations and deployment of multiple first-line treatments. The importance of anti-malarial treatment dosing has been underappreciated. Treatment recommendations are often for the lowest doses that produce "satisfactory" results.MethodsThe probability of de-novo resistant malaria parasites surviving and transmitting depends on the relationship between their degree of resistance and the blood concentration profiles of the anti-malarial drug to which they are exposed. The conditions required for the in-vivo selection of de-novo emergent resistant malaria parasites were examined and relative probabilities assessed.ResultsRecrudescence is essential for the transmission of de-novo resistance. For rapidly eliminated anti-malarials high-grade resistance can arise from a single drug exposure, but low-grade resistance can arise only from repeated inadequate treatments. Resistance to artemisinins is, therefore, unlikely to emerge with single drug exposures. Hyperparasitaemic patients are an important source of de-novo anti-malarial drug resistance. Their parasite populations are larger, their control of the infection insufficient, and their rates of recrudescence following anti-malarial treatment are high. As use of substandard drugs, poor adherence, unusual pharmacokinetics, and inadequate immune responses are host characteristics, likely to pertain to each recurrence of infection, a small subgroup of patients provides the particular circumstances conducive to de-novo resistance selection and transmission.ConclusionCurrent dosing recommendations provide a resistance selection opportunity in those patients with low drug levels and high parasite burdens (often children or pregnant women). Patients with hyperparasitaemia who receive outpatient treatments provide the greatest risk of selecting de-novo resistant parasites. This emphasizes the importance of ensuring that only quality-assured anti-malarial combinations are used, that treatment doses are optimized on the basis of pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic assessments in the target populations, and that patients with heavy parasite burdens are identified and receive sufficient treatment to prevent recrudescence.

Project description:To limit the spread and impact of anti-malarial drug resistance and react accordingly, surveillance systems able to detect and track in real-time its emergence and spread need to be strengthened or in some places established. Currently, surveillance of anti-malarial drug resistance is done by any of three approaches: (1) in vivo studies to assess the efficacy of drugs in patients; (2) in vitro/ex vivo studies to evaluate parasite susceptibility to the drugs; and/or (3) molecular assays to detect validated gene mutations and/or gene copy number changes that are associated with drug resistance. These methods are complementary, as they evaluate different aspects of resistance; however, standardization of methods, especially for in vitro/ex vivo and molecular techniques, is lacking. The World Health Organization has developed a standard protocol for evaluating the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs, which is used by National Malaria Control Programmes to conduct their therapeutic efficacy studies. Regional networks, such as the East African Network for Monitoring Antimalarial Treatment and the Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance, have been set up to strengthen regional capacities for monitoring anti-malarial drug resistance. The Worldwide Antimalarial Resistance Network has been established to collate and provide global spatial and temporal trends information on the efficacy of anti-malarial drugs and resistance. While exchange of information across endemic countries is essential for monitoring anti-malarial resistance, sustainable funding for the surveillance and networking activities remains challenging. The technology landscape for molecular assays is progressing quite rapidly, and easy-to-use and affordable new techniques are becoming available. They also offer the advantage of high throughput analysis from a simple blood spots obtained from a finger prick. New technologies combined with the strengthening of national reference laboratories in malaria-endemic countries through standardized protocols and training plus the availability of a proficiency testing programme, would contribute to the improvement and sustainability of anti-malarial resistance surveillance networks worldwide.

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Novel anti-malarial drug strategies to prevent artemisinin partner drug resistance: A model-based analysis.

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