Dataset Information

Epidemiological characteristics and forecasting incidence for patients with breast cancer in Shantou, Southern China: 2006-2017.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to explore the epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer and establish an Exponential Smoothing (ETS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to predict the development of incidence in Shantou. This study has a large sample size, strong representativeness, and wide-ranging and comprehensive medical insurance information, which can fill the gaps in basic epidemiological research on breast cancer in Shantou. Successful completion of this study is a helpful tool to understand the epidemiology of Guangdong Province and Southern China. This study also provides data and scientific references for the government and future research on breast cancer prevention and control. This retrospective study was conducted to describe the epidemic intensity, epidemic distribution, and epidemic trend of breast cancer in Shantou, Guangdong Province, from 2006 to 2017, gathered from the Shantou's Medical Security Bureau covers the whole districts of Shantou. ETS and ARIMA models were used to describe the regional distribution, time distribution, and population distribution of breast cancer in Shantou. Moreover, based on the ARIMA model and ETS model, the incidence trend of breast cancer was predicted during 2018-2022. This study included 5,681 breast cancer patients, majority of whom were aged 50-59 years. The male-to-female ratio of the breast cancer patients was about 1:107 (the same ratio of the insured population was 1:1). Female patients accounted for 98.61% of the total insured population. The incidence and mortality rates of female breast cancer were 16.42/100,000 and 0.66/100,000, respectively. Based on the ARIMA model or ARIMA and ETS model, a gradually decreasing trend in the incidence of breast cancer is expected in the future. Comparing the performances of the ARIMA model and ETS model, ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) model had a lower the root mean squared error and the mean absolute percentage error than ETS (M, N) model. This population-based retrospective study showed that the high-risk age for the age-specific incidence of female breast cancer was 50-55 years. It is recommended that healthcare administration should strengthen program awareness and education regarding breast cancer prevention and control. It is also possible that feasibility of extrapolating the current methodology to other future studies or broader populations in which the cancer registry data are not available.

SUBMITTER: Lin H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8026945 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Scrub typhus was epidemic in the western Pacific Ocean area and East Asia, scrub typhus epidemic in densely populated areas in southern China. To better understand the association between meteorological variables, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou was benefit to the control and prevention. Methodology/Principal Findings: We collected weekly data for scrub typhus cases and meteorological variables in Guangzhou, and Southern Oscillation Index from 2006 to 2018, and used the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the relationships between meteorological variables, SOI and scrub typhus. The median value of each variable was set as the reference. The high-risk occupations were farmer (51.10%), house worker (17.51%), and retiree (6.29%). The non-linear relationships were observed with different lag weeks. For example, when the mean temperature was 27.7°C with1-week lag, the relative risk (RR) was highest as 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01-1.17). The risk was the highest when the relative humidity was 92.0% with 9-week lag, with the RR of 1.10 (95% CI: 1.02-1.19). For aggregate rainfall, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.11), when it was 83.0 mm with 4-week lag. When the SOI was 19 with 11-week lag, the highest RR was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.12). Most of the extreme effects of SOI and meteorological factors on scrub typical cases were statistically significant. Conclusion/Significance: The high-risk occupations of scrub typhus in Guangzhou were farmer, house worker, and retiree. Meteorological factors and SOI played an important role in scrub typhus occurrence in Guangzhou. Non-linear relationships were observed in almost all the variables in our study. Approximately, mean temperature, and relative humidity positively correlated to the incidence of scrub typhus, on the contrary to atmospheric pressure and weekly temperature range (WTR). Aggregate rainfall and wind velocity showed an inverse-U curve, whereas the SOI appeared the bimodal distribution. These findings can be helpful to facilitate the development of the early warning system to prevent the scrub typhus.

Project description:Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infection in the world, and its epidemics result in heavy disease burdens. Over the past decade, HFMD has been widespread among children in China, with Shanxi Province being a severely affected northern province. Located in the temperate monsoon climate, Shanxi has a GDP of over 2.5 trillion yuan. It is important to have a comprehensive understanding of the basic features of HFMD in those areas that have similar meteorological and economic backgrounds to northern China. We aimed to investigate epidemiological characteristics, identify spatial clusters and predict monthly incidence of HFMD. All reported HFMD cases were obtained from the Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Overall HFMD incidence showed a significant downward trend from 2017 to 2020, increasing again in 2021. Children aged < 5 years were primarily affected, with a high incidence of HFMD in male patients (relative risk: 1.316). The distribution showed a seasonal trend, with major peaks in June and July and secondary peaks in October and November with the exception of 2020. Other enteroviruses were the predominant causative agents of HFMD in most years. Areas with large numbers of HFMD cases were primarily in central Shanxi, and spatial clusters in 2017 and 2018 showed a positive global spatial correlation. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that hot spots and secondary hot spots were concentrated in Jinzhong and Yangquan in 2018. Based on monthly incidence from September 2021 to August 2022, the mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE) of the long short-term memory (LSTM) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were 386.58 vs. 838.25, 2.25 vs. 3.08, and 461.96 vs. 963.13, respectively, indicating that the predictive accuracy of LSTM was better than that of SARIMA. The LSTM model may be useful in predicting monthly incidences of HFMD, which may provide early warnings of HFMD epidemics.

Project description:ImportanceThe World Health Organization End TB (Tuberculosis) Strategy aims to decrease the global incidence and mortality of TB by 90% and 95%, respectively, as of 2035.ObjectiveTo characterize the recent epidemiological trend of pulmonary TB (PTB) in mainland China based on the national surveillance data.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study collected demographic and clinical data of all patients reported in the national Tuberculosis Information Management System of China from January 1, 2005, to November 21, 2016. Data were analyzed from December 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020.ExposuresPulmonary TB was defined as bacteriologically confirmed or clinically diagnosed TB in the lung parenchyma or the tracheobronchial tree.Main outcomes and measuresTemporal and spatial variation of annual incidence and demographic features of PTB in mainland China.ResultsIn total, 10 582 903 patients with PTB were reported in mainland China from 2005 to 2016. The median age of patients with PTB was 46 (interquartile range [IQR], 30-61) years, and 28.53% were 60 years or older. Most patients with PTB were male (69.8%) and farmers or herders (70.0%). The mean (SD) incidence of PTB was 66.61 (8.09) per 100 000 population. The annual incidence decreased from 72.95 per 100 000 population in 2005 to 52.18 per 100 000 population in 2016, and the reduction was greater in the eastern and central regions (31.6%; from 69.43 to 47.48 per 100 000 population) than in the western region (21.0%; from 82.06 to 64.82 per 100 000 population). Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (135.03 per 100 000 population), Guizhou Province (115.98 per 100 000 population), and the Tibet Autonomous Region (101.98 per 100 000 population) had the highest mean annual incidences. The median time from onset of illness to diagnosis decreased from 36 (IQR, 16-92) days from 2005 to 2007 to 31 (IQR, 15-63) days in 2008 and later (P < .001) and was longer in the western region than in the eastern and central regions (41 [IQR, 20-91] vs 30 [IQR, 13-61] days; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough this study found that the incidence of PTB in mainland China showed a downward trend from 2005 to 2016, to achieve the World Health Organization 2035 goal, innovative and more efficient prevention and control strategies are needed, particularly among the most susceptible population, that is, farmers and herders in western China.

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Epidemiological characteristics and forecasting incidence for patients with breast cancer in Shantou, Southern China: 2006-2017.

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