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A Novel Nomogram to Predict Prolonged Survival After Hepatectomy in Repeat Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: Background: Repeat hepatectomy is an important treatment for patients with repeat recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: This study was a multicenter retrospective analysis of 1,135 patients who underwent primary curative liver resection for HCC. One hundred recurrent patients with second hepatectomy were included to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of post-recurrence survival (PRS). Thirty-eight patients in another institution were used to externally validate the nomogram. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors of PRS. Discrimination, calibration, and the Kaplan-Meier curves were used to evaluate the model performance. Results: The nomogram was based on variables associated with PRS after HCC recurrence, including the tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) stage; albumin and aspartate aminotransferase levels at recurrence; tumor size, site, differentiation of recurrences; and time to recurrence (TTR). The discriminative ability of the nomogram, as indicated by the C statistics (0.758 and 0.811 for training cohort and external validation cohorts, respectively), was shown, which was better than that of the TNM staging system (0.609 and 0.609, respectively). The calibration curves showed ideal agreement between the prediction and the real observations. The area under the curves (AUCs) of the training cohort and external validation cohorts were 0.843 and 0.890, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curve of the established nomogram also performed better than those of both the TNM and the BCLC staging systems. Conclusions: We constructed a nomogram to predict PRS in patients with repeat hepatectomy (RH) after repeat recurrence of HCC.

SUBMITTER: Fang Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8027067 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with a dismal prognosis, and prediction of the prognosis of HCC can assist in therapeutic decision-makings. An increasing number of studies have shown that the texture parameters of images can reflect the heterogeneity of tumors, and may have the potential to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC after surgical resection. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) texture parameters in patients with HCC after hepatectomy and to develop a radiomics nomogram by combining clinicopathological factors and the radiomics signature.MethodsIn all, 544 eligible patients were enrolled in this retrospective study and were randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 381) and the validation cohort (n = 163). The tumor regions of interest (ROIs) were delineated, and the corresponding texture parameters were extracted. The texture parameters were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox model in the training cohort, and a radiomics signature was established. Then, the radiomics signature was further validated as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS). The radiomics nomogram was established based on the Cox regression model. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram.ResultsThe radiomics signature was formulated based on 7 OS-related texture parameters, which were selected in the training cohort. In addition, the radiomics nomogram was developed based on the following five variables: α-fetoprotein (AFP), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), largest tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI) and radiomics score (Rad-score). The nomogram displayed good accuracy in predicting OS (C-index = 0.747) in the training cohort and was confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index = 0.777). The calibration plots also showed excellent agreement between the actual and predicted survival probabilities. The DCA indicated that the radiomics nomogram showed better clinical utility than the clinicopathologic nomogram.ConclusionThe radiomics signature is a potential prognostic biomarker of HCC after hepatectomy. The radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature can provide a more accurate estimation of OS than the clinicopathologic nomogram for HCC patients after hepatectomy.

Project description:ImportanceRepeat hepatectomy and percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (PRFA) are most commonly used to treat early-stage recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (RHCC) after initial resection, but previous studies comparing the effectiveness of the 2 treatments have reported conflicting results.ObjectiveTo compare the long-term survival outcomes after repeat hepatectomy with those after PRFA among patients with early-stage RHCC.Design, setting, and participantsThis open-label randomized clinical trial was conducted at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and the National Center for Liver Cancer of China. A total of 240 patients with RHCC (with a solitary nodule diameter of ≤5 cm; 3 or fewer nodules, each ≤3 cm in diameter; and no macroscopic vascular invasion or distant metastasis) were randomized 1:1 to receive repeat hepatectomy or PRFA between June 3, 2010, and January 15, 2013. The median (range) follow-up time was 44.3 (4.3-90.6) months (last follow-up, January 15, 2018). Data analysis was conducted from June 15, 2018, to September 28, 2018.InterventionsRepeat hepatectomy (n = 120) or PRFA (n = 120).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included repeat recurrence-free survival (rRFS), patterns of repeat recurrence, and therapeutic safety.ResultsAmong the 240 randomized patients (216 men [90.0%]; median [range] age, 53.0 [24.0-59.0] years), 217 completed the trial. In the intention-to-treat (ITT) population, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS rates were 92.5% (95% CI, 87.9%-97.3%), 65.8% (95% CI, 57.8%-74.8%), and 43.6% (95% CI, 35.5%-53.5%), respectively, for the repeat hepatectomy group and 87.5% (95% CI, 81.8%-93.6%), 52.5% (95% CI, 44.2%-62.2%), and 38.5% (95% CI, 30.6%-48.4%), respectively, for the PRFA group (P = .17). The corresponding 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year rRFS rates were 85.0% (95% CI, 78.8%-91.6%), 52.4% (95% CI, 44.2%-62.2%), and 36.2% (95% CI, 28.5%-46.0%), respectively, for the repeat hepatectomy group and 74.2% (95% CI, 66.7%-82.4%), 41.7% (95% CI, 33.7%-51.5%), and 30.2% (95% CI, 22.9%-39.8%), respectively, for the PRFA group (P = .09). Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation was associated with a higher incidence of local repeat recurrence (37.8% vs 21.7%, P = .04) and early repeat recurrence than repeat hepatectomy (40.3% vs 23.3%, P = .04). In subgroup analyses, PRFA was associated with worse OS vs repeat hepatectomy among patients with an RHCC nodule diameter greater than 3 cm (hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.05-2.84) or an α fetoprotein level greater than 200 ng/mL (hazard ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.15-2.96). Surgery had a higher complication rate than did ablation (22.4% vs 7.3%, P = .001).Conclusions and relevanceNo statistically significant difference was observed in survival outcomes after repeat hepatectomy vs PRFA for patients with early-stage RHCC. Repeat hepatectomy may be associated with better local disease control and long-term survival in patients with an RHCC diameter greater than 3 cm or an AFP level greater than 200 ng/mL.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00822562.

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A Novel Nomogram to Predict Prolonged Survival After Hepatectomy in Repeat Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

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