Dataset Information

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016.

ABSTRACT: Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection. We developed a modeling approach that integrates a generic Time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model with assumptions about reporting biases in a Bayesian framework and applied it to the 2016 Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico using three indicators: suspected arboviral cases, suspected Zika-associated Guillain-Barré Syndrome cases, and blood bank data. Using this combination of surveillance data, we estimated the peak of the epidemic occurred during the week of August 15, 2016 (the 33rd week of year), and 120 to 140 (50% credible interval [CrI], 95% CrI: 97 to 170) weekly infections per 10,000 population occurred at the peak. By the end of 2016, we estimated that approximately 890,000 (95% CrI: 660,000 to 1,100,000) individuals were infected in 2016 (26%, 95% CrI: 19% to 33%, of the population infected). Utilizing multiple indicators offers the opportunity for real-time and retrospective situational awareness to support epidemic preparedness and response.

SUBMITTER: Quandelacy TM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8034731 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016.

Quandelacy Talia M TM Healy Jessica M JM Greening Bradford B Rodriguez Dania M DM Chung Koo-Whang KW Kuehnert Matthew J MJ Biggerstaff Brad J BJ Dirlikov Emilio E Mier-Y-Teran-Romero Luis L Sharp Tyler M TM Waterman Stephen S Johansson Michael A MA

PLoS computational biology 20210330 3

Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection. We developed a modeling approach that integrates a generic Time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model with assumptions about reporting biases in a Bayesian framewo ...[more]

PMID: 33784311

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Project description:ImportanceThe pathophysiologic mechanisms of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) infection may be indicated by differences in clinical features.ObjectiveTo identify specific clinical features of GBS associated with ZIKV infection.Design, setting, and participantsDuring the ZIKV epidemic in Puerto Rico, prospective and retrospective strategies were used to identify patients with GBS who had neurologic illness onset in 2016 and were hospitalized at all 57 nonspecialized hospitals and 2 rehabilitation centers in Puerto Rico. Guillain-Barré syndrome diagnosis was confirmed via medical record review using the Brighton Collaboration criteria. Specimens (serum, urine, cerebrospinal fluid, and saliva) from patients with GBS were tested for evidence of ZIKV infection by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction; serum and cerebrospinal fluid were also tested by IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In this analysis of public health surveillance data, a total of 123 confirmed GBS cases were identified, of which 107 had specimens submitted for testing; there were 71 patients with and 36 patients without evidence of ZIKV infection. Follow-up telephone interviews with patients were conducted 6 months after neurologic illness onset; 60 patients with and 27 patients without evidence of ZIKV infection participated.Main outcomes and measuresAcute and long-term clinical characteristics of GBS associated with ZIKV infection.ResultsOf 123 patients with confirmed GBS, the median age was 54 years (age range, 4-88 years), and 68 patients (55.3%) were male. The following clinical features were more frequent among patients with GBS and evidence of ZIKV infection compared with patients with GBS without evidence of ZIKV infection: facial weakness (44 [62.0%] vs 10 [27.8%]; P < .001), dysphagia (38 [53.5%] vs 9 [25.0%]; P = .005), shortness of breath (33 [46.5%] vs 9 [25.0%]; P = .03), facial paresthesia (13 [18.3%] vs 1 [2.8%]; P = .03), elevated levels of protein in cerebrospinal fluid (49 [94.2%] vs 23 [71.9%]; P = .008), admission to the intensive care unit (47 [66.2%] vs 16 [44.4%]; P = .03), and required mechanical ventilation (22 [31.0%] vs 4 [11.1%]; P = .02). Six months after neurologic illness onset, patients with GBS and evidence of ZIKV infection more frequently reported having excessive or inadequate tearing (30 [53.6%] vs 6 [26.1%]; P = .03), difficulty drinking from a cup (10 [17.9%] vs 0; P = .03), and self-reported substantial pain (15 [27.3%] vs 1 [4.3%]; P = .03).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, GBS associated with ZIKV infection was found to have higher morbidity during the acute phase and more frequent cranial neuropathy during acute neuropathy and 6 months afterward. Results indicate GBS pathophysiologic mechanisms that may be more common after ZIKV infection.

Project description:ObjectiveDuring the 2016-2017 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak, the prevention of unintended pregnancies was identified as a primary strategy to prevent birth defects. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of the Zika Contraception Access Network (Z-CAN), an emergency response intervention that provided women in Puerto Rico with access to the full range of reversible contraception at no cost and compared results with a preimplementation hypothetical cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA).Study designWe evaluated costs and outcomes of Z-CAN from a health sector perspective compared to no intervention using a decision tree model. Number of people served, contraception methods mix, and costs under Z-CAN were from actual program data and other input parameters were from the literature. Health outcome measures included the number of Zika-associated microcephaly (ZAM) cases and unintended pregnancies. The economic benefits of the Z-CAN intervention were ZIKV-associated direct costs avoided, including lifetime medical and supportive costs associated with ZAM cases, costs of monitoring ZIKV-exposed pregnancies and infants born from Zika-virus infected mothers, and the costs of unintended pregnancies prevented during the outbreak as a result of increased contraception use through the Z-CAN intervention.ResultsThe Z-CAN intervention cost a total of $26.1 million, including costs for the full range of reversible contraceptive methods, contraception related services, and programmatic activities. The program is estimated to have prevented 85% of cases of estimated ZAM cases and unintended pregnancies in the absence of Z-CAN. The intervention cost was projected to have been more than offset by $79.9 million in ZIKV-associated costs avoided, 96% of which were lifetime ZAM-associated costs, as well as $137.0 million from avoided unintended pregnancies, with total net savings in one year of $216.9 million. The results were consistent with the previous CEA study.ConclusionZ-CAN was likely cost-saving in the context of a public health emergency response setting.

Project description:BackgroundAfter Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, laboratory-based surveillance for arboviral diseases in Puerto Rico was adapted to include ZIKV disease.Methods and findingsSuspected cases of arboviral disease reported to Puerto Rico Department of Health were tested for evidence of infection with Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses by RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. To describe spatiotemporal trends among confirmed ZIKV disease cases, we analyzed the relationship between municipality-level socio-demographic, climatic, and spatial factors, and both time to detection of the first ZIKV disease case and the midpoint of the outbreak. During November 2015-December 2016, a total of 71,618 suspected arboviral disease cases were reported, of which 39,717 (55.5%; 1.1 cases per 100 residents) tested positive for ZIKV infection. The epidemic peaked in August 2016, when 71.5% of arboviral disease cases reported weekly tested positive for ZIKV infection. Incidence of ZIKV disease was highest among 20-29-year-olds (1.6 cases per 100 residents), and most (62.3%) cases were female. The most frequently reported symptoms were rash (83.0%), headache (64.6%), and myalgia (63.3%). Few patients were hospitalized (1.2%), and 13 (<0.1%) died. Early detection of ZIKV disease cases was associated with increased population size (log hazard ratio [HR]: -0.22 [95% confidence interval -0.29, -0.14]), eastern longitude (log HR: -1.04 [-1.17, -0.91]), and proximity to a city (spline estimated degrees of freedom [edf] = 2.0). Earlier midpoints of the outbreak were associated with northern latitude (log HR: -0.30 [-0.32, -0.29]), eastern longitude (spline edf = 6.5), and higher mean monthly temperature (log HR: -0.04 [-0.05, -0.03]). Higher incidence of ZIKV disease was associated with lower mean precipitation, but not socioeconomic factors.ConclusionsDuring the ZIKV epidemic in Puerto Rico, 1% of residents were reported to public health authorities and had laboratory evidence of ZIKV disease. Transmission was first detected in urban areas of eastern Puerto Rico, where transmission also peaked earlier. These trends suggest that ZIKV was first introduced to Puerto Rico in the east before disseminating throughout the island.

Dataset Information

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016.

Publications

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016.

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