Simple discrete-time self-exciting models can describe complex dynamic processes: A case study of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: Hawkes processes are a form of self-exciting process that has been used in numerous applications, including neuroscience, seismology, and terrorism. While these self-exciting processes have a simple formulation, they can model incredibly complex phenomena. Traditionally Hawkes processes are a continuous-time process, however we enable these models to be applied to a wider range of problems by considering a discrete-time variant of Hawkes processes. We illustrate this through the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a substantive case study. While alternative models, such as compartmental and growth curve models, have been widely applied to the COVID-19 epidemic, the use of discrete-time Hawkes processes allows us to gain alternative insights. This paper evaluates the capability of discr

SUBMITTER: Browning R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8034752 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature