Assessing breast cancer risk models in Marin County, a population with high rates of delayed childbirth.
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ABSTRACT: Introduction
This study was designed to compare the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT; Gail), International Breast Intervention Study (IBIS; Tyrer-Cuzick), and BRCAPRO breast cancer risk assessment models using data from the Marin Women's Study, a cohort of women within Marin County, California, with high rates of breast cancer, nulliparity, and delayed childbirth. Existing models have not been well-validated in these high-risk populations.Methods
Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration by estimating the ratio of expected-to-observed (E/O) cases. The models were assessed using data from 12,843 participants, of whom 203 had developed cancer during a 5-year period. All tests of statistical significance were 2-sided.Results
The IBIS model achieved an AUC of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.68) compared with 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.66) for BCRAT and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.56-0.63) for BRCAPRO. The corresponding estimated E/O ratios for the models were 1.08 (95% CI, 0.95-1.25), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.93), and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.52-0.68). In women with age at first birth > 30 years, the AUC for the IBIS, BCRAT, and BRCAPRO models was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.62-0.75), 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.70), and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) and the E/O ratio was 1.15 (95% CI, 0.89-1.47), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.63-1.05), and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.41-0.68), respectively.Conclusions
The IBIS model was well calibrated for the high-risk Marin mammography population and demonstrated the best calibration of the 3 models in nulliparous women. The IBIS model also achieved the greatest overall discrimination and displayed superior discrimination for women with age at first birth > 30 years.
SUBMITTER: Powell M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8040293 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe Northern California county of Marin (MC) has historically had high breast cancer incidence rates. Because of MC's high socioeconomic status (SES) and racial homogeneity (non-Hispanic White), it has been difficult to assess whether these elevated rates result from a combination of established risk factors or other behavioral or environmental factors. This survey was designed to compare potential breast cancer risks and incidence rates for a sample of middle-aged MC women with those of a demographically similar population.MethodsA random sample of 1500 middle-aged female members of a large Northern California health plan, half from Marin County (MC) and half from a comparison area in East/Central Contra Costa County (ECCC), were mailed a survey covering family history, reproductive history, use of oral contraceptives (OC) and hormone replacement therapy (HRT), behavioral health risks, recency of breast screening, and demographic characteristics. Weighted data were used to compare prevalence of individual breast cancer risk factors and Gail scores. Age-adjusted cumulative breast cancer incidence rates (2000-2004) were also calculated for female health plan members aged 40-64 residing in the two geographic areas.ResultsSurvey response was 57.1% (n = 427) and 47.9% (n = 359) for MC and ECCC samples, respectively. Women in the two areas were similar in SES, race, obesity, exercise frequency, current smoking, ever use of OCs and HRT, age at onset of menarche, high mammography rates, family history of breast cancer, and Gail scores. However, MC women were significantly more likely than ECCC women to be former smokers (43.6% vs. 31.2%), have Ashkenazi Jewish heritage (12.8% vs. 7.1%), have no live births before age 30 (52.7% vs. 40.8%), and be nulliparous (29.2% vs. 15.4%), and less likely to never or rarely consume alcohol (34.4% vs. 41.9%). MC and ECCC women had comparable 2000-2004 invasive breast cancer incidence rates.ConclusionThe effects of reproductive risks factors, Ashkenazi Jewish heritage, smoking history, and alcohol consumption with regard to breast cancer risk in Marin County should be further evaluated. When possible, future comparisons of breast cancer incidence rates between regions should adjust for differences in income and education in addition to age and race/ethnicity, preferably by using a sociodemographically similar comparison group.
| S-EPMC2670264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesWe sought to quantify the proportion of contacts reported by persons with COVID-19 through a short message service (SMS)-linked survey in comparison to the proportion of contacts reported during a follow-up phone-interview. We also sought to assess improvement in contact tracing timeliness associated with sending SMS-linked surveys.Study designDuring December 4-15, 2020, persons identified as COVID-19 cases whose data was entered into Marin County's contact tracing database on even days received a SMS-linked survey and persons whose data was entered on odd days did not; all were called for case investigation and contact tracing. Chi-square test and Fisher's exact test were used to compare demographic data. Chi-square test was used to contrast categorical outcomes, and Wilcoxon's rank-sum test was used for continuous outcomes.ResultsAmong 350 SMS-linked survey recipients, 85 (24%) responded and 4 (1%) reported contacts using the survey; an additional 303 contacts were reported during phone interviews. Without phone interviews, 99% of reported contacts would have been missed. There was no meaningful difference between study arms in the proportion of contacts notified within 48 h.ConclusionsThis SMS-linked survey had low participation and was not useful for identifying contacts. Phone interviews remained crucial for COVID-19 contact tracing.
| S-EPMC8320401 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to determine if salivary cadmium (Cd) levels had any association with breast density, hoping to establish a less invasive cost-effective method of stratifying Cd burden as an environmental breast cancer risk factor.MethodsSalivary Cd levels were quantified from the Marin Women's Study, a Marin County, California population composite. Volumetric compositional breast density (BDsxa ) data were measured by single x-ray absorptiometry techniques. Digital screening mammography was performed by the San Francisco Mammography Registry. Radiologists reviewed mammograms and assigned a Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System score. Early morning salivary Cd samples were assayed. Association analyses were then performed.ResultsCd was quantifiable in over 90% of saliva samples (mean = 55.7 pg/L, SD = 29). Women with higher saliva Cd levels had a non-significant odds ratio of 1.34 with BI-RAD scores (3 or 4) (95% CI 0.75-2.39, p = 0.329). Cd levels were higher in current smokers (mean = 61.4 pg/L, SD = 34.8) than former smokers or non-smokers. These results were non-significant. Pilot data revealed that higher age and higher BMI were associated with higher BI-RAD scores (p < 0.001).ConclusionSalivary Cd is a viable quantification source in large epidemiologic studies. Association analyses between Cd levels and breast density may provide additional information for breast cancer risk assessment, risk reduction plans, and future research directions. Further work is needed to demonstrate a more robust testing protocol before the extent of its usefulness can be established.
| S-EPMC10831917 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSouth Sudan has one of the world's poorest health indicators due to a fragile health system and a combination of socio-cultural, economic and political factors. This study was conducted to identify barriers to utilisation of institutional childbirth services in Rumbek North County.MethodsData were collected through 14 focus group discussions with 169 women and 45 men, and 18 key informant interviews with community leaders, staff working in health facilities, traditional birth attendants, and the staff of the County Health Department. Data were analysed using inductive content analysis.ResultsThe barriers to institutional childbirth were categorised under four main themes: 1) Issues related to access and lack of resources: long distance to health facilities, lack of transportation means, referral problems, flooding and poor roads, and payments in health facilities; 2) Issues related to the socio-cultural context and conflict: insecurity, influence of the husband, lack of birth preparedness, domestic chores of women, influence of culture; 3) Perceptions about pregnancy and childbirth: perceived benefit of institutional childbirth, low childbirth risk perception, and medicalisation of childbirth including birth being perceived to be natural, undesirable birth practices, privacy concerns, and fear of caesarean section; and 4) Perceptions about the quality of care: inadequate health facility infrastructure and perceived neglect during admission.ConclusionsMultiple factors hinder institutional childbirth in Rumbek North. Some of the factors such as insecurity and poor roads are outside the scope of the health sector and will require a multi-sectoral approach if childbirth services are to be made accessible to women. Detailed recommendations to increase utilisation of childbirth services in the county have been suggested.
| S-EPMC5158020 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Multiple COVID-19 vaccines were proven to be safe and effective in curbing severe illness, but despite vaccine availability, vaccination rates were relatively low in the United States (U.S.). To better understand factors associated with low COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the U.S., our study provides a comprehensive, data-driven population-level statistical analysis at the county level. We find that political affiliation, as determined by the proportion of votes received by the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential election, has the strongest association with our response variable, the percent of the population that received no COVID-19 vaccine. The next strongest association was median household income, which has a negative association. The percentage of Black people and the average number of vehicles per household are positively associated with the percent unvaccinated. In contrast, COVID-19 infection rate, percentage of Latinx people, postsecondary education percentage, median age, and prior non-COVID-19 childhood vaccination coverage are negatively associated with percent unvaccinated. Unlike previous studies, we do not find significant relationships between cable TV news viewership or Twitter misinformation variables with COVID-19 vaccine uptake. These results shed light on some factors that may impact vaccination choice in the U.S. and can be used to target specific populations for educational outreach and vaccine campaign strategies in efforts to increase vaccination uptake.
| S-EPMC10881504 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFertility is an important issue for long-term survivors of malignancies developing during reproductive years. We designed a population-based study to investigate childbirth in female young adult survivors of non-gynecologic malignancies.MethodsWomen 20-34 years diagnosed with non-gynecologic malignancies in Ontario from 1992-1999 who lived at least 5 years recurrence-free were identified using the Ontario Cancer Registry and age matched to 5 randomly selected cancer-free women. Childbirth was determined through hospital discharge data. Time-to-childbirth was compared between survivors and controls using Cox proportional hazard regression for all subjects and stratified by prior childbirth and disease site.Results3,285 survivors and 15,118 control women had a median of 12 years observation. 1,194 survivors and 6,049 controls experienced childbirth to the end of observation (March 2011). Overall, survivors experienced a longer time to childbirth than controls (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98), however this was limited to survivors with prediagnosis childbirth (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66-0.86). Survivors with no prediagnosis childbirth experienced a similar time to childbirth (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.93-1.08) as control women. Differences between survivors and controls varied by type of malignancy; notably for those with prediagnosis childbirth, survivors of breast cancer (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.29-0.68) and Hodgkin Disease (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.91) had lower rates of postdiagnosis childbirth than controls.ConclusionsLong-term female young adult survivors of malignancies are less likely than controls to have childbirth after diagnosis; the overall effect is small and is influenced by prediagnosis childbirth and malignancy type.
| S-EPMC3605316 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceObesity is a leading cause of high health care expenditures, disability, and premature mortality. Previous studies have documented geographic disparities in obesity prevalence.ObjectiveTo identify county-level factors associated with obesity using traditional epidemiologic and machine learning methods.Design, setting, and participantsCross-sectional study using linear regression models and machine learning models to evaluate the associations between county-level obesity and county-level demographic, socioeconomic, health care, and environmental factors from summarized statistical data extracted from the 2018 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings and merged with US Census data from each of 3138 US counties. The explanatory power of the linear multivariate regression and the top performing machine learning model were compared using mean R2 measured in 30-fold cross validation.ExposuresCounty-level demographic factors (population; rural status; census region; and race/ethnicity, sex, and age composition), socioeconomic factors (median income, unemployment rate, and percentage of population with some college education), health care factors (rate of uninsured adults and primary care physicians), and environmental factors (access to healthy foods and access to exercise opportunities).Main outcomes and measuresCounty-level obesity prevalence in 2018, its association with each county-level factor, and the percentage of variation in county-level obesity prevalence explained by linear multivariate and gradient boosting machine regression measured with R2.ResultsAmong the 3138 counties studied, the mean (range) obesity prevalence was 31.5% (12.8%-47.8%). In multivariate regressions, demographic factors explained 44.9% of variation in obesity prevalence; socioeconomic factors, 33.0%; environmental factors, 15.5%; and health care factors, 9.1%. The county-level factors with the strongest association with obesity were census region, median household income, and percentage of population with some college education. R2 values of univariate regressions of obesity prevalence were 0.238 for census region, 0.218 for median household income, and 0.160 for percentage of population with some college education. Multivariate linear regression and gradient boosting machine regression (the best-performing machine learning model) of obesity prevalence using all county-level demographic, socioeconomic, health care, and environmental factors had R2 values of 0.58 and 0.66, respectively (P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceObesity prevalence varies significantly between counties. County-level demographic, socioeconomic, health care, and environmental factors explain the majority of variation in county-level obesity prevalence. Using machine learning models may explain significantly more of the variation in obesity prevalence..
| S-EPMC6487629 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLike most of the world, the United States' public health and economy are impacted by the COVID19 pandemic. However, discrete pandemic effects may not be fully realized on the macro-scale. With this perspective, our goal is to visualize spread of the pandemic and measure county-level features which may portend vulnerability.MethodsWe accessed the New York Times GitHub repository COVID19 data and 2018 United States Census data for all United States Counties. The disparate datasets were merged and filtered to allow for visualization and assessments about case fatality rate (CFR%) and associated demographic, ethnic and economic features.ResultsOur results suggest that county-level COVID19 fatality rates are related to advanced population age (P < .001) and less diversity as evidenced by higher proportion of Caucasians in High CFR% counties (P < .001). Also, lower CFR% counties had a greater proportion of the population reporting has having 2 or more races (P < .001). We noted no significant differences between High and Low CFR% counties with respect to mean income or poverty rate.ConclusionsUnique COVID19 impacts are realized at the county level. Use of public datasets, data science skills and information visualization can yield helpful insights to drive understanding about community-level vulnerability.
| S-EPMC7837264 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDue to its potential impact on women's psychological health, assessing perceptions of their childbirth experience is important. The aim of this study was to develop a multidimensional self-reporting questionnaire to evaluate the childbirth experience.MethodsFactors influencing the childbirth experience were identified from a literature review and the results of a previous qualitative study. A total of 25 items were combined from existing instruments or were created de novo. A draft version was pilot tested for face validity with 30 women and submitted for evaluation of its construct validity to 477 primiparous women at one-month post-partum. The recruitment took place in two obstetric clinics from Swiss and French university hospitals. To evaluate the content validity, we compared item responses to general childbirth experience assessments on a numeric, 0 to 10 rating scale. We dichotomized two group assessment scores: "0 to 7" and "8 to 10". We performed an exploratory factor analysis to identify underlying dimensions.ResultsIn total, 291 women completed the questionnaire (response rate = 61%). The responses to 22 items were statistically significant between the 0 to 7 and 8 to 10 groups for the general childbirth experience assessments. An exploratory factor analysis yielded four sub-scales, which were labelled "relationship with staff" (4 items), "emotional status" (3 items), "first moments with the new born," (3 items) and "feelings at one month postpartum" (3 items). All 4 scales had satisfactory internal consistency levels (alpha coefficients from 0.70 to 0.85). The full 25-item version can be used to analyse each item by itself, and the short 4-dimension version can be scored to summarize the general assessment of the childbirth experience.ConclusionsThe Questionnaire for Assessing the Childbirth Experience (QACE) could be useful as a screening instrument to identify women with negative childbirth experiences. It can be used as both a research instrument in its short version and a questionnaire for use in clinical practice in its full version.
| S-EPMC5577741 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn resource-limited settings, underlying causes of death (UCOD) often are not ascertained systematically, leading to unreliable mortality statistics. We reviewed medical charts to establish UCOD for decedents at two high volume mortuaries in Kisumu County, Kenya, and compared ascertained UCOD to those notified to the civil registry.MethodsMedical experts trained in COD certification examined medical charts and ascertained causes of death for 456 decedents admitted to the mortuaries from April 16 through July 12, 2019. Decedents with unknown HIV status or who had tested HIV-negative >90 days before the date of death were tested for HIV. We calculated annualized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates grouped according to global burden of disease (GBD) categories and separately for deaths due to HIV/AIDS and expressed estimated deaths per 100,000 population. We compared notified to ascertained UCOD using Cohen's Kappa (κ) and assessed for the independence of proportions using Pearson's chi-squared test.FindingsThe four leading UCOD were HIV/AIDS (102/442 [23.1%]), hypertensive disease (41/442 [9.3%]), other cardiovascular diseases (23/442 [5.2%]), and cancer (20/442 [4.5%]). The all-cause mortality rate was 1,086/100,000 population. The highest cause-specific mortality was in GBD category II (noncommunicable diseases; 516/100,000), followed by GBD I (communicable, perinatal, maternal, and nutritional; 513/100,000), and III (injuries; 56/100,000). The HIV/AIDS mortality rate was 251/100,000 population. The proportion of deaths due to GBD II causes was higher among females (51.9%) than male decedents (42.1%; p = 0.039). Conversely, more men/boys (8.6%) than women/girls (2.1%) died of GBD III causes (p = 0.002). Most of the records with available recorded and ascertained UCOD (n = 236), 167 (70.8%) had incorrectly recorded UCOD, and agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD was poor (29.2%; κ = 0.26).ConclusionsMortality from infectious diseases, especially HIV/AIDS, is high in Kisumu County, but there is a shift toward higher mortality from noncommunicable diseases, possibly reflecting an epidemiologic transition and improving HIV outcomes. The epidemiologic transition suggests the need for increased focus on controlling noncommunicable conditions despite the high communicable disease burden. The weak agreement between notified and ascertained UCOD could lead to substantial inaccuracies in mortality statistics, which wholly depend on death notifications.
| S-EPMC8775329 | biostudies-literature