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Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: The codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a destructive pest of apple (Malus domestica (Rosales: Rosaceae)), pear (Pyrus spp. (Rosales: Rosaceae)), and other pome tree fruits; outbreaks cause significant ecological and economic losses. In this study, we used CLIMEX model to predict and evaluate the global risk of C. pomonella based on historical climate data (1989-2018) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenarios. Cydia pomonella exhibited a wide distribution under both historical and future climate conditions. Climate change is predicted to expand the northern boundary of the potential distribution from approximately 60°N to 75°N. Temperature was the most dominant factor in climatic suitability for the pest. Combinations of multiple meteorological factors (relative humidity and precipitation) associated with a failure to break diapause in certain regions also affect suitability, particularly in northern South America and central Africa. Irrigation only had a slight impact on species favorability in some areas. The projections established in our study present insight into the global potential suitability of C. pomonella under climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Farmers should be aware of the risk associated with the pest based on the results, which would provide guidance for quarantine agencies and trade negotiators worldwide.

SUBMITTER: Guo S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8040788 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Novel methods of data analysis were used to interpret codling moth (Cydia pomonella) catch data from central-trap, multiple-release experiments using a standard codlemone-baited monitoring trap in commercial apple orchards not under mating disruption. The main objectives were to determine consistency and reliability for measures of: 1) the trapping radius, composed of the trap's behaviorally effective plume reach and the maximum dispersive distance of a responder population; and 2) the proportion of the population present in the trapping area that is caught. Two moth release designs were used: 1) moth releases at regular intervals in the four cardinal directions, and 2) evenly distributed moth releases across entire approximately 18-ha orchard blocks using both high and low codling moth populations. For both release designs, at high populations, the mean proportion catch was 0.01, and for the even release of low populations, that value was approximately 0.02. Mean maximum dispersive distance for released codling moth males was approximately 260 m. Behaviorally effective plume reach for the standard codling moth trap was?<?5 m, and total trapping area for a single trap was approximately 21?ha. These estimates were consistent across three growing seasons and are supported by extraordinarily high replication for this type of field experiment. Knowing the trapping area and mean proportion caught, catch number per single monitoring trap can be translated into absolute pest density using the equation: males per trapping area?=?catch per trapping area/proportion caught. Thus, catches of 1, 3, 10, and 30 codling moth males per trap translate to approximately 5, 14, 48, and 143 males/ha, respectively, and reflect equal densities of females, because the codling moth sex ratio is 1:1. Combined with life-table data on codling moth fecundity and mortality, along with data on crop yield per trapping area, this fundamental knowledge of how to interpret catch numbers will enable pest managers to make considerably more precise projections of damage and therefore more precise and reliable decisions on whether insecticide applications are justified. The principles and methods established here for estimating absolute codling moth density may be broadly applicable to pests generally and thereby could set a new standard for integrated pest management decisions based on trapping.

Project description:Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature--the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045-2074), the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence) in Switzerland will increase to 70-100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0-2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude) of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require adaptations of plant protection strategies to maintain their sustainability.

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Projecting the Global Potential Distribution of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Under Historical and RCP4.5 Climate Scenarios.

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