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Machine Learning-Enabled 30-Day Readmission Model for Stroke Patients.

ABSTRACT: Background and Purpose: Hospital readmissions impose a substantial burden on the healthcare system. Reducing readmissions after stroke could lead to improved quality of care especially since stroke is associated with a high rate of readmission. The goal of this study is to enhance our understanding of the predictors of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke and develop models to identify high-risk individuals for targeted interventions. Methods: We used patient-level data from electronic health records (EHR), five machine learning algorithms (random forest, gradient boosting machine, extreme gradient boosting-XGBoost, support vector machine, and logistic regression-LR), data-driven feature selection strategy, and adaptive sampling to develop 15 models of 30-day readmission after ischemic stroke. We further identified important clinical variables. Results: We included 3,184 patients with ischemic stroke (mean age: 71 ± 13.90 years, men: 51.06%). Among the 61 clinical variables included in the model, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score above 24, insert indwelling urinary catheter, hypercoagulable state, and percutaneous gastrostomy had the highest importance score. The Model's AUC (area under the curve) for predicting 30-day readmission was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.64-0.78) with PPV of 0.43 when the XGBoost algorithm was used with ROSE-sampling. The balance between specificity and sensitivity improved through the sampling strategy. The best sensitivity was achieved with LR when optimized with feature selection and ROSE-sampling (AUC: 0.64, sensitivity: 0.53, specificity: 0.69). Conclusions: Machine learning-based models can be designed to predict 30-day readmission after stroke using structured data from EHR. Among the algorithms analyzed, XGBoost with ROSE-sampling had the best performance in terms of AUC while LR with ROSE-sampling and feature selection had the best sensitivity. Clinical variables highly associated with 30-day readmission could be targeted for personalized interventions. Depending on healthcare systems' resources and criteria, models with optimized performance metrics can be implemented to improve outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Darabi N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8044392 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHospital readmissions for pneumonia are a growing concern in the US, with significant consequences for costs and quality of care. This study developed the rule-based model and other machine learning (ML) models to predict 30-day readmission risk in patients with pneumonia and compared model performance.MethodsThis population-based study involved patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with pneumonia from January 1, 2016, through November 30, 2016, using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-National Readmission Database (HCUP-NRD). Rule-based algorithms and other ML algorithms, specifically decision trees, random forest, extreme gradient descent boosting (XGBoost), and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), were used to model all-cause readmissions 30 days post-discharge from index pneumonia hospitalization. A total of 61 clinically relevant variables were included for ML model development. Models were trained on randomly partitioned 50% of the data and evaluated using the remaining dataset. Model hyperparameters were tuned using the ten-fold cross-validation on the resampled training dataset. The area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) and area under precision-recall curves (AUPRC) were calculated for the testing set to evaluate the model performance.ResultsOf the 372,293 patients with an index hospital hospitalization for pneumonia, 48,280 (12.97%) were readmitted within 30 days. Judged by AUROC in the testing data, rule-based model (0.6591) significantly outperformed decision tree (0.5783, p value < 0.001), random forest (0.6509, p value < 0.01) and LASSO (0.6087, p value < 0.001), but was less superior than XGBoost (0.6606, p value = 0.015). The AUPRC of the rule-based model in the testing data (0.2146) was higher than the decision tree (0.1560), random forest (0.2052), and LASSO (0.2042), but was similar to XGBoost (0.2147). The top risk-predictive rules captured by the rule-based algorithm were comorbidities, illness severity, disposition locations, payer type, age, and length of stay. These predictive risk factors were also identified by other ML models with high variable importance.ConclusionThe performance of machine learning models for predicting readmission in pneumonia patients varied. The XGboost was better than the rule-based model based on the AUROC. However, important risk factors for predicting readmission remained consistent across ML models.

Project description:Background and objectivesDiabetes mellitus is a major chronic disease that results in readmissions due to poor disease control. Here we established and compared machine learning (ML)-based readmission prediction methods to predict readmission risks of diabetic patients.MethodsThe dataset analyzed in this study was acquired from the Health Facts Database, which includes over 100,000 records of diabetic patients from 1999 to 2008. The basic data distribution characteristics of this dataset were summarized and then analyzed. In this study, 30-days readmission was defined as a readmission period of less than 30 days. After data preprocessing and normalization, multiple risk factors in the dataset were examined for classifier training to predict the probability of readmission using ML models. Different ML classifiers such as random forest, Naive Bayes, and decision tree ensemble were adopted to improve the clinical efficiency of the classification. In this study, the Konstanz Information Miner platform was used to preprocess and model the data, and the performances of the different classifiers were compared.ResultsA total of 100,244 records were included in the model construction after the data preprocessing and normalization. A total of 23 attributes, including race, sex, age, admission type, admission location, length of stay, and drug use, were finally identified as modeling risk factors. Comparison of the performance indexes of the three algorithms revealed that the RF model had the best performance with a higher area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than the other two algorithms, suggesting that its use is more suitable for making readmission predictions.ConclusionThe factors influencing 30-days readmission predictions in diabetic patients, including number of inpatient admissions, age, diagnosis, number of emergencies, and sex, would help healthcare providers to identify patients who are at high risk of short-term readmission and reduce the probability of 30-days readmission. The RF algorithm with the highest AUC is more suitable for making 30-days readmission predictions and deserves further validation in clinical trials.

Project description:ImportanceReadmission reduction is linked to improved quality of care, saves cost, and is a desirable patient-centered outcome. Nationally representative readmission metrics for patients with stroke are unavailable to date. Such estimates are necessary for benchmarking performance.ObjectivesTo provide US nationwide estimates and a temporal trend for overall, planned, and potentially preventable 30-day hospital readmission among patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke; to investigate the association between hospitals' stroke discharge volume, teaching status, and 30-day readmission; and to highlight reasons for 30-day readmission and explore the association of 30-day readmission in terms of mortality, length of stay, and cost of care among patients with stroke.Design, setting, and participantsCohort, year-wise analysis of the Nationwide Readmissions Database between January 1, 2010, and September 30, 2015. The setting was a population-based cohort study providing national estimates of 30-day readmission. The database represents 50% of all US hospitalizations from 22 geographically dispersed states. Participants were adult (?18 years) patients with a primary discharge diagnosis of intracerebral hemorrhage, acute ischemic stroke, or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Hospitals were categorized by their annual stroke discharge volume and were classified as teaching hospitals if they had an American Medical Association-approved residency program or had a ratio of full-time equivalent interns and residents to beds of 0.25 or higher.Main outcomes and measuresReadmission was defined as any admission within 30 days of index hospitalization discharge. Using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services-defined algorithms, events were classified as planned or unplanned and as potentially preventable.ResultsBased on study criteria, 2?078?854 eligible patients were included (mean [SE] age, 70.02 [0.07] years; 51.9% female). Thirty-day readmission was highest for patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (13.70%; 95% CI, 13.40%-13.99%), followed by patients with acute ischemic stroke (12.44%; 95% CI, 12.33%-12.55%) and patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (11.48%; 95% CI, 11.01%-11.96%). On average, there was a 3.3% annual decline in readmission between 2010 and 2014, which was statistically significant for the period of investigation (odds ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95-0.97). Patients discharged from nonteaching hospitals with high stroke discharge volume were at a significantly higher risk of 30-day readmission, and the top 2 reasons for readmission were acute cerebrovascular disease and septicemia.Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that nationally representative readmission metrics can be used to benchmark hospitals' performance, and a temporal trend of 3.3% may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of readmission reduction strategies.

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Machine Learning-Enabled 30-Day Readmission Model for Stroke Patients.

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