Prediction of Mortality in Surgical Intensive Care Unit Patients Using Machine Learning Algorithms.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yun K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8044535 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background To develop a highly discriminative machine learning model for the prediction of intensive care unit admission (>24h) using the easily available preoperative information from electronic health records. An accurate prediction model for ICU admission after surgery is of great importance for surgical risk assessment and appropriate utilization of ICU resources. Method Data were collected retrospectively from a large hospital, comprising 135,442 adult patients who underwent surgery except for cardiac surgery between 1 January 2014, and 31 July 2018 in China. Multiple existing predictive machine learning algorithms were explored to construct the prediction model, including logistic regression, random forest, adaptive boosting, and gradient boosting machine. Four secondary analyses were conducted to improve the interpretability of the results. Results A total of 2702 (2.0%) patients were admitted to the intensive care unit postoperatively. The gradient boosting machine model attained the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.90. The machine learning models predicted intensive care unit admission better than the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.68). The gradient boosting machine recognized several features as highly significant predictors for postoperatively intensive care unit admission. By applying subgroup analysis and secondary analysis, we found that patients with operations on the digestive, respiratory, and vascular systems had higher probabilities for intensive care unit admission. Conclusion Compared with conventional American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status and logistic regression model, the gradient boosting machine could improve the performance in the prediction of intensive care unit admission. Machine learning models could be used to improve the discrimination and identify the need for intensive care unit admission after surgery in elective noncardiac surgical patients, which could help manage the surgical risk.
| S-EPMC9326842 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives: This study aims to investigate whether the machine learning algorithms could provide an optimal early mortality prediction method compared with other scoring systems for patients with cerebral hemorrhage in intensive care units in clinical practice. Methods: Between 2008 and 2012, from Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database, all cerebral hemorrhage patients monitored with the MetaVision system and admitted to intensive care units were enrolled in this study. The calibration, discrimination, and risk classification of predicted hospital mortality based on machine learning algorithms were assessed. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Model performance was assessed with accuracy and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: Of 760 cerebral hemorrhage patients enrolled from MIMIC database [mean age, 68.2 years (SD, ±15.5)], 383 (50.4%) patients died in hospital, and 377 (49.6%) patients survived. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of six machine learning algorithms was 0.600 (nearest neighbors), 0.617 (decision tree), 0.655 (neural net), 0.671(AdaBoost), 0.819 (random forest), and 0.725 (gcForest). The AUC was 0.423 for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. The random forest had the highest specificity and accuracy, as well as the greatest AUC, showing the best ability to predict in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: Compared with conventional scoring system and the other five machine learning algorithms in this study, random forest algorithm had better performance in predicting in-hospital mortality for cerebral hemorrhage patients in intensive care units, and thus further research should be conducted on random forest algorithm.
| S-EPMC7855582 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Lactic acidosis is the most common cause of anion gap metabolic acidosis in the intensive care unit (ICU), associated with poor outcomes including mortality. We sought to compare machine learning (ML) approaches versus logistic regression analysis for prediction of mortality in lactic acidosis patients admitted to the ICU. We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database to identify ICU adult patients with lactic acidosis (serum lactate ≥4 mmol/L). The outcome of interest was hospital mortality. We developed prediction models using four ML approaches consisting of random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), artificial neural network (ANN), and statistical modeling with forward stepwise logistic regression using the testing dataset. We then assessed model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, precision, error rate, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), F1 score, and assessed model calibration using the Brier score, in the independent testing dataset. Of 1919 lactic acidosis ICU patients, 1535 and 384 were included in the training and testing dataset, respectively. Hospital mortality was 30%. RF had the highest AUROC at 0.83, followed by logistic regression 0.81, XGBoost 0.81, ANN 0.79, and DT 0.71. In addition, RF also had the highest accuracy (0.79), MCC (0.45), F1 score (0.56), and lowest error rate (21.4%). The RF model was the most well-calibrated. The Brier score for RF, DT, XGBoost, ANN, and multivariable logistic regression was 0.15, 0.19, 0.18, 0.19, and 0.16, respectively. The RF model outperformed multivariable logistic regression model, SOFA score (AUROC 0.74), SAP II score (AUROC 0.77), and Charlson score (AUROC 0.69). The ML prediction model using RF algorithm provided the highest predictive performance for hospital mortality among ICU patient with lactic acidosis.
| S-EPMC8584535 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Prognostication is an essential tool for risk adjustment and decision making in the intensive care unit (ICU). Research into prognostication in ICU has so far been limited to data from admission or the first 24 hours. Most ICU admissions last longer than this, decisions are made throughout an admission, and some admissions are explicitly intended as time-limited prognostic trials. Despite this, temporal changes in prognostic ability during ICU admission has received little attention to date. Current predictive models, in the form of prognostic clinical tools, are typically derived from linear models and do not explicitly handle incremental information from trends. Machine learning (ML) allows predictive models to be developed which use non-linear predictors and complex interactions between variables, thus allowing incorporation of trends in measured variables over time; this has made it possible to investigate prognosis throughout an admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This study uses ML to assess the predictability of ICU mortality as a function of time. Logistic regression against physiological data alone outperformed APACHE-II and demonstrated several important interactions including between lactate & noradrenaline dose, between lactate & MAP, and between age & MAP consistent with the current sepsis definitions. ML models consistently outperformed logistic regression with Deep Learning giving the best results. Predictive power was maximal on the second day and was further improved by incorporating trend data. Using a limited range of physiological and demographic variables, the best machine learning model on the first day showed an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 (σ = 0.008), compared to 0.846 (σ = 0.010) for a logistic regression from the same predictors and 0.836 (σ = 0.007) for a logistic regression based on the APACHE-II score. Adding information gathered on the second day of admission improved the maximum AUC to 0.895 (σ = 0.008). Beyond the second day, predictive ability declined. CONCLUSION:This has implications for decision making in intensive care and provides a justification for time-limited trials of ICU therapy; the assessment of prognosis over more than one day may be a valuable strategy as new information on the second day helps to differentiate outcomes. New ML models based on trend data beyond the first day could greatly improve upon current risk stratification tools.
| S-EPMC6241126 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundMultiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) is one of the leading causes of death in critically ill patients. MODS is the result of a dysregulated inflammatory response that can be triggered by various causes. Owing to the lack of an effective treatment for patients with MODS, early identification and intervention are the most effective strategies. Therefore, we have developed a variety of early warning models whose prediction results can be interpreted by Kernel SHapley Additive exPlanations (Kernel-SHAP) and reversed by diverse counterfactual explanations (DiCE). So we can predict the probability of MODS 12 h in advance, quantify the risk factors, and automatically recommend relevant interventions.MethodsWe used various machine learning algorithms to complete the early risk assessment of MODS, and used a stacked ensemble to improve the prediction performance. The kernel-SHAP algorithm was used to quantify the positive and minus factors corresponding to the individual prediction results, and finally, the DiCE method was used to automatically recommend interventions. We completed the model training and testing based on the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV databases, in which the sample features in the model training included the patients' vital signs, laboratory test results, test reports, and data related to the use of ventilators.ResultsThe customizable model called SuperLearner, which integrated multiple machine learning algorithms, had the highest authenticity of screening, and its Yordon index (YI), sensitivity, accuracy, and utility_score on the MIMIC-IV test set were 0.813, 0.884, 0.893, and 0.763, respectively, which were all maximum values of eleven models. The area under the curve of the deep-wide neural network (DWNN) model on the MIMIC-IV test set was 0.960, and the specificity was 0.935, which were both the maximum values of all these models. The Kernel-SHAP algorithm combined with SuperLearner was used to determine the minimum value of glasgow coma scale (GCS) in the current hour (OR = 0.609, 95% CI 0.606-0.612), maximum value of MODS score corresponding to GCS in the past 24 h (OR = 2.632, 95% CI 2.588-2.676), and maximum score of MODS corresponding to creatinine in the past 24 h (OR = 3.281, 95% CI 3.267-3.295) were generally the most influential factors.ConclusionThe MODS early warning model based on machine learning algorithms has considerable application value, and the prediction efficiency of SuperLearner is superior to those of SubSuperLearner, DWNN, and other eight common machine learning models. Considering that the attribution analysis of Kernel-SHAP is a static analysis of the prediction results, we introduce the DiCE algorithm to automatically recommend counterfactuals to reverse the prediction results, which will be an important step towards the practical application of automatic MODS early intervention.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40537-023-00719-2.
| S-EPMC10158675 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTimely recognition of hemodynamic instability in critically ill patients enables increased vigilance and early treatment opportunities. We develop the Hemodynamic Stability Index (HSI), which highlights situational awareness of possible hemodynamic instability occurring at the bedside and to prompt assessment for potential hemodynamic interventions.MethodsWe used an ensemble of decision trees to obtain a real-time risk score that predicts the initiation of hemodynamic interventions an hour into the future. We developed the model using the eICU Research Institute (eRI) database, based on adult ICU admissions from 2012 to 2016. A total of 208,375 ICU stays met the inclusion criteria, with 32,896 patients (prevalence = 18%) experiencing at least one instability event where they received one of the interventions during their stay. Predictors included vital signs, laboratory measurements, and ventilation settings.ResultsHSI showed significantly better performance compared to single parameters like systolic blood pressure and shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) and showed good generalization across patient subgroups. HSI AUC was 0.82 and predicted 52% of all hemodynamic interventions with a lead time of 1-h with a specificity of 92%. In addition to predicting future hemodynamic interventions, our model provides confidence intervals and a ranked list of clinical features that contribute to each prediction. Importantly, HSI can use a sparse set of physiologic variables and abstains from making a prediction when the confidence is below an acceptable threshold.ConclusionsThe HSI algorithm provides a single score that summarizes hemodynamic status in real time using multiple physiologic parameters in patient monitors and electronic medical records (EMR). Importantly, HSI is designed for real-world deployment, demonstrating generalizability, strong performance under different data availability conditions, and providing model explanation in the form of feature importance and prediction confidence.
| S-EPMC8590869 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo compare the performance of machine learning models against the traditionally derived Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) model and the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status (ASA-PS) in the prediction of 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay >24 hours.BackgroundPrediction of surgical risk preoperatively is important for clinical shared decision-making and planning of health resources such as ICU beds. The current growth of electronic medical records coupled with machine learning presents an opportunity to improve the performance of established risk models.MethodsAll patients aged 18 years and above who underwent noncardiac and nonneurological surgery at Singapore General Hospital (SGH) between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 were included. Patient demographics, comorbidities, preoperative laboratory results, and surgery details were obtained from their electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the observations were randomly selected for training, leaving 30% for testing. Baseline models were CARES and ASA-PS. Candidate models were trained using random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, and support vector machine. Models were evaluated on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC).ResultsA total of 90,785 patients were included, of whom 539 (0.6%) died within 30 days and 1264 (1.4%) required ICU admission >24 hours postoperatively. Baseline models achieved high AUROCs despite poor sensitivities by predicting all negative in a predominantly negative dataset. Gradient boosting was the best performing model with AUPRCs of 0.23 and 0.38 for mortality and ICU admission outcomes respectively.ConclusionsMachine learning can be used to improve surgical risk prediction compared to traditional risk calculators. AUPRC should be used to evaluate model predictive performance instead of AUROC when the dataset is imbalanced.
| S-EPMC7668340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundsThe in-hospital mortality in lung cancer patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is extremely high. This study intended to adopt machine learning algorithm models to predict in-hospital mortality of critically ill lung cancer for providing relative information in clinical decision-making.MethodsData were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) for a training cohort and data extracted from the Medical Information Mart for eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) database for a validation cohort. Logistic regression, random forest, decision tree, light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and an ensemble (random forest+LightGBM+XGBoost) model were used for prediction of in-hospital mortality and important feature extraction. The AUC (area under receiver operating curve), accuracy, F1 score and recall were used to evaluate the predictive performance of each model. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to evaluate feature importance of each feature.ResultsOverall, there were 653 (24.8%) in-hospital mortality in the training cohort, and 523 (21.7%) in-hospital mortality in the validation cohort. Among the six machine learning models, the ensemble model achieved the best performance. The top 5 most influential features were the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, albumin, the oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) score, anion gap and bilirubin in random forest and XGBoost model. The SHAP summary plot was used to illustrate the positive or negative effects of the top 15 features attributed to the XGBoost model.ConclusionThe ensemble model performed best and might be applied to forecast in-hospital mortality of critically ill lung cancer patients, and the SOFA score was the most important feature in all models. These results might offer valuable and significant reference for ICU clinicians' decision-making in advance.
| S-EPMC9879439 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Patients in intensive care units (ICUs) were at higher risk of worsen prognosis and mortality. Here, we aimed to evaluate the ability of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) to predict the risk of 7-day mortality, and to test a machine learning algorithm which combines the SAPS II with additional patients' characteristics at ICU admission. We used data from the "Italian Nosocomial Infections Surveillance in Intensive Care Units" network. Support Vector Machines (SVM) algorithm was used to classify 3782 patients according to sex, patient's origin, type of ICU admission, non-surgical treatment for acute coronary disease, surgical intervention, SAPS II, presence of invasive devices, trauma, impaired immunity, antibiotic therapy and onset of HAI. The accuracy of SAPS II for predicting patients who died from those who did not was 69.3%, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.678. Using the SVM algorithm, instead, we achieved an accuracy of 83.5% and AUC of 0.896. Notably, SAPS II was the variable that weighted more on the model and its removal resulted in an AUC of 0.653 and an accuracy of 68.4%. Overall, these findings suggest the present SVM model as a useful tool to early predict patients at higher risk of death at ICU admission.
| S-EPMC7957866 | biostudies-literature
