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Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy.

ABSTRACT: Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016-17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north-eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic-temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird-mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife-domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long-distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human-mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.

SUBMITTER: Harvey WT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8048528 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:UnlabelledNext-generation sequencing technology is now being increasingly applied to study the within- and between-host population dynamics of viruses. However, information on avian influenza virus evolution and transmission during a naturally occurring epidemic is still limited. Here, we use deep-sequencing data obtained from clinical samples collected from five industrial holdings and a backyard farm infected during the 2013 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N7 epidemic in Italy to unravel (i) the epidemic virus population diversity, (ii) the evolution of virus pathogenicity, and (iii) the pathways of viral transmission between different holdings and sheds. We show a high level of genetic diversity of the HPAI H7N7 viruses within a single farm as a consequence of separate bottlenecks and founder effects. In particular, we identified the cocirculation in the index case of two viral strains showing a different insertion at the hemagglutinin cleavage site, as well as nine nucleotide differences at the consensus level and 92 minority variants. To assess interfarm transmission, we combined epidemiological and genetic data and identified the index case as the major source of the virus, suggesting the spread of different viral haplotypes from the index farm to the other industrial holdings, probably at different time points. Our results revealed interfarm transmission dynamics that the epidemiological data alone could not unravel and demonstrated that delay in the disease detection and stamping out was the major cause of the emergence and the spread of the HPAI strain.ImportanceThe within- and between-host evolutionary dynamics of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain during a naturally occurring epidemic is currently poorly understood. Here, we perform for the first time an in-depth sequence analysis of all the samples collected during a HPAI epidemic and demonstrate the importance to complement outbreak investigations with genetic data to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of the viruses and to evaluate the within- and between-farm genetic diversity of the viral population. We show that the evolutionary transition from the low pathogenic form to the highly pathogenic form occurred within the first infected flock, where we identified haplotypes with hemagglutinin cleavage site of different lengths. We also identify the index case as the major source of virus, indicating that prompt application of depopulation measures is essential to limit virus spread to other farms.

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Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy.

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