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Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California.

ABSTRACT: We document changes in the number of sightings and timing of humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), blue (Balaenoptera musculus), and gray (Eschrichtius robustus) whale migratory phases in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands, California. We hypothesized that changes in the timing of migration off central California were driven by local oceanography, regional upwelling, and basin-scale climate conditions. Using 24 years of daily whale counts collected from Southeast Farallon Island, we developed negative binomial regression models to evaluate trends in local whale sightings over time. We then used linear models to assess trends in the timing of migration, and to identify potential environmental drivers. These drivers included local, regional and basin-scale patterns; the latter included the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which influence, wind-driven upwelling, and overall productivity in the California Current System. We then created a forecast model to predict the timing of migration. Humpback whale sightings significantly increased over the study period, but blue and gray whale counts did not, though there was variability across the time series. Date of breeding migration (departure) for all species showed little to no change, whereas date of migration towards feeding areas (arrival) occurred earlier for humpback and blue whales. Timing was significantly influenced by a mix of local oceanography, regional, and basin-scale climate variables. Earlier arrival time without concomitant earlier departure time results in longer periods when blue and humpback whales are at risk of entanglement in the Gulf of the Farallones. We maintain that these changes have increased whale exposure to pot and trap fishery gear off the central California coast during the spring, elevating the risk of entanglements. Humpback entanglement rates were significantly associated with increased counts and early arrival in central California. Actions to decrease the temporal overlap between whales and pot/trap fishing gear, particularly when whales arrive earlier in warm water years, would likely decrease the risk of entanglements.

SUBMITTER: Ingman K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8049321 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:As global ocean-bound commerce increases, managing human activities has become important in reducing conflict with threatened wildlife. This study investigates environmental factors determining abundance and distribution of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and their prey (Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera) in central California. We provide insights into environmental drivers of the ecology and distribution of these species, model whale distributions and determine coincident hotspots of whales and their prey that will help decrease human threats to whales and protect critical feeding habitat. We developed separate predictive models of whale abundances (using negative binomial regression on count data) and krill abundance (using a two-part hurdlemodel combining logistic and negative binomial regressions) over a 14 year period (2004-2017). Variables included in situ surface and midwater oceanographic measures (temperature, salinity, and fluorescence), basin-scale climate indices, and bathymetric- and distance-related data. Predictions were applied to 1 km2 cells spanning the study area for May, June, July, and September during each of the 14 years of surveys to identify persistent distribution patterns. Both whales and krill were found to consistently use the northeast region of Cordell Bank, the Farallon Escarpment, and the shelf-break waters. The main identified blue whale hotspots were also krill hotspots, while co-occurrence was more limited and varied seasonally for humpback whales and krill. These results are valuable in identifying patterns in important areas of ecological interaction to assist management of whales. Areas north of Cordell Bank are of particular management concern since they overlap with the end of the San Francisco Bay northern shipping lane. Our findings can help decrease threats to whales, particularly in important foraging areas, by supporting implementation of vessel management and informing potential conflicts with other human uses.

Dataset Information

Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California.

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