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THBS2/CA19-9 Detecting Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma at Diagnosis Underperforms in Prediagnostic Detection: Implications for Biomarker Advancement.

ABSTRACT: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is often diagnosed too late for effective therapy. The classic strategy for early detection biomarker advancement consists of initial retrospective phases of discovery and validation with tissue samples taken from individuals diagnosed with disease, compared with controls. Using this approach, we previously reported the discovery of a blood biomarker panel consisting of thrombospondin-2 (THBS2) and CA19-9 that together could discriminate resectable stage I and IIa PDAC as well as stages III and IV PDAC, with c-statistic values in the range of 0.96 to 0.97 in two phase II studies. We now report that in two studies of blood samples prospectively collected from 1 to 15 years prior to a PDAC diagnosis (Mayo Clinic and PLCO cohorts), THBS2 and/or CA19-9 failed to discriminate cases from healthy controls at the AUC = 0.8 needed. We conclude that PDAC progression may be heterogeneous and for some individuals can be more rapid than generally appreciated. It is important that PDAC early-detection studies incorporate high-risk, prospective prediagnostic cohorts into discovery and validation studies.Prevention Relevance: A blood biomarker panel of THBS2 and CA19-9 detects early stages of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma at diagnosis, but not when tested across a population up to 1 year earlier. Our findings suggest serial sampling over time, using prospectively collected samples for biomarker discovery, and more frequent screening of high-risk individuals.

SUBMITTER: Udgata S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8050137 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:CA19-9 values are regularly measured in patients with pancreatic cancer. Certainly, its potential as a biomarker has been compromised by false negative results in CA19-9 negative patients and false positive results in benign pancreatico-biliary diseases. For detection of PDAC recurrence, however, CA19-9 might play an important role. The aim of this study is to analyze the accuracy of CA19-9 for detecting recurrence of pancreatic cancer. All included patients were treated either at the University Medical Center Goettingen, or at the Department of Interdisciplinary Oncology and Pneumonology, DRK-Kliniken Nordhessen, Kassel. We analyzed data of 93 patients with pancreatic cancer in the training set and 41 in the validation set, both retrospectively. Pre- and postoperative CA19-9 values and results of imaging techniques were compared. We performed ROC-analysis. The association between longitudinally measured CA19-9 values and relapse was studied with a joint model between a random effects model for the longitudinal CA19-9 measurements and a Cox proportional hazards models for the survival data. In the test set (n = 93 patients) the median follow-up time was 644 days (22 months). Overall, 71 patients (76.3%) developed recurrence during follow-up. Patients with CA19-9 values of <10kU/l were considered as CA19-9 negative patients (n = 11) and excluded from further analysis. Among the rest, approximately 60% of the patients showed significantly elevated CA19-9 prior to detection of recurrence by imaging techniques. Recurrence was shown by 2.45 times elevated CA19-9 values with 90% positive predictive value. In the validation set, 2.45 times elevated CA19-9 values showed recurrence with 90% sensitivity and 83,33% specificity, with an area under the curve of 95%. Based on measured CA19-9 values during follow-up care, the joint model estimates in recurrence-free patients the probability of recurrence-free survival. CA19-9 elevation is an early and reliable sign for PDAC recurrence. On the strength of a very high accuracy in CA19-9 positive patients, it should be considered to use CA19-9 for therapy decision even without a correlate of imaging technics. Using the joint model, follow-up care of PDAC patients after curative therapy can be stratified.

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THBS2/CA19-9 Detecting Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma at Diagnosis Underperforms in Prediagnostic Detection: Implications for Biomarker Advancement.

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