Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Abdelkrim O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8051322 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundSuitability of environmental conditions determines a species distribution in space and time. Understanding and modelling the ecological niche of mosquito disease vectors can, therefore, be a powerful predictor of the risk of exposure to the pathogens they transmit. In Africa, five anophelines are responsible for over 95% of total malaria transmission. However, detailed knowledge of the geographic distribution and ecological requirements of these species is to date still inadequate.MethodsIndoor-resting mosquitoes were sampled from 386 villages covering the full range of ecological settings available in Cameroon, Central Africa. Using a predictive species distribution modeling approach based only on presence records, habitat suitability maps were constructed for the five major malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles nili and Anopheles moucheti. The influence of 17 climatic, topographic, and land use variables on mosquito geographic distribution was assessed by multivariate regression and ordination techniques.ResultsTwenty-four anopheline species were collected, of which 17 are known to transmit malaria in Africa. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Habitat Suitability modeling and Canonical Correspondence Analysis revealed marked differences among the five major malaria vector species, both in terms of ecological requirements and niche breadth. Eco-geographical variables (EGVs) related to human activity had the highest impact on habitat suitability for the five major malaria vectors, with areas of low population density being of marginal or unsuitable habitat quality. Sunlight exposure, rainfall, evapo-transpiration, relative humidity, and wind speed were among the most discriminative EGVs separating "forest" from "savanna" species.ConclusionsThe distribution of major malaria vectors in Cameroon is strongly affected by the impact of humans on the environment, with variables related to proximity to human settings being among the best predictors of habitat suitability. The ecologically more tolerant species An. gambiae and An. funestus were recorded in a wide range of eco-climatic settings. The other three major vectors, An. arabiensis, An. moucheti, and An. nili, were more specialized. Ecological niche and species distribution modelling should help improve malaria vector control interventions by targeting places and times where the impact on vector populations and disease transmission can be optimized.
| S-EPMC2805691 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions.ResultsThe predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5°N, 137.5-137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs.ConclusionsOur model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.
| S-EPMC6617707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe intensification of trade and travel is linked to the growing number of imported cases of dengue, chikungunya or Zika viruses into continental Europe and to the expansion of invasive mosquito species such as Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus. Local outbreaks have already occurred in several European countries. Very little information exists on the vector competence of native mosquitoes for arboviruses. As such, the vectorial status of the nine mosquito species largely established in North-Western Europe (Aedes cinereus and Aedes geminus, Aedes cantans, Aedes punctor, Aedes rusticus, Anopheles claviger s.s., Anopheles plumbeus, Coquillettidia richiardii, Culex pipiens s.l., and Culiseta annulata) remains mostly unknown.ObjectivesTo review the vector competence of both invasive and native mosquito populations found in North-Western Europe (i.e., France, Belgium, Germany, United Kingdom, Ireland, The Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland) for dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile and Usutu viruses.MethodsA bibliographical search with research strings addressing mosquito vector competence for considered countries was performed.ResultsOut of 6357 results, 119 references were related to the vector competence of mosquitoes in Western Europe. Eight species appear to be competent for at least one virus.ConclusionsAedes albopictus is responsible for the current outbreaks. The spread of Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus increases the risk of the autochthonous transmission of these viruses. Although native species could contribute to their transmission, more studies are still needed to assess that risk.
| S-EPMC6893686 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Terrestrial long-distance migrations are declining globally: in North America, nearly 75% have been lost. Yet there has been limited research comparing habitat suitability and connectivity models to identify migration corridors across increasingly fragmented landscapes. Here we use pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) migrations in prairie habitat to compare two types of models that identify habitat suitability: maximum entropy (Maxent) and expert-based (Analytic Hierarchy Process). We used distance to wells, distance to water, NDVI, land cover, distance to roads, terrain shape and fence presence to parameterize the models. We then used the output of these models as cost surfaces to compare two common connectivity models, least-cost modeling (LCM) and circuit theory. Using pronghorn movement data from spring and fall migrations, we identified potential migration corridors by combining each habitat suitability model with each connectivity model. The best performing model combination was Maxent with LCM corridors across both seasons. Maxent out-performed expert-based habitat suitability models for both spring and fall migrations. However, expert-based corridors can perform relatively well and are a cost-effective alternative if species location data are unavailable. Corridors created using LCM out-performed circuit theory, as measured by the number of pronghorn GPS locations present within the corridors. We suggest the use of a tiered approach using different corridor widths for prioritizing conservation and mitigation actions, such as fence removal or conservation easements.
| S-EPMC3500376 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can be unclear (Northwestern U.S.A.). We predicted habitat suitability for nesting Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus; a burned-forest specialist) at 20 recently (?6 years postwildfire) burned locations in Montana using models calibrated with data from three locations in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. We developed 8 models using three techniques (weighted logistic regression, Maxent, and Mahalanobis D (2) models) and various combinations of four environmental variables describing burn severity, the north-south orientation of topographic slope, and prefire canopy cover. After translating model predictions into binary classifications (0 = low suitability to unsuitable, 1 = high to moderate suitability), we compiled "ensemble predictions," consisting of the number of models (0-8) predicting any given site as highly suitable. The suitability status for 40% of the area burned by eastside Montana wildfires was consistent across models and therefore robust to uncertainty in the relative accuracy of particular models and in alternative ecological hypotheses they described. Ensemble predictions exhibited two desirable properties: (1) a positive relationship with apparent rates of nest occurrence at calibration locations and (2) declining model agreement outside surveyed environments consistent with our reduced confidence in novel (i.e., "no-analogue") environments. Areas of disagreement among models suggested where future surveys could help validate and refine models for an improved understanding of Black-backed Woodpecker nesting habitat relationships. Ensemble predictions presented here can help guide managers attempting to balance salvage logging with habitat conservation in burned-forest landscapes where black-backed woodpecker nest location data are not immediately available. Ensemble modeling represents a promising tool for guiding conservation of large-scale disturbance specialists.
| S-EPMC3856736 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Pine sawyer beetle species of the genus Monochamus are vectors of the nematode pest Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The introduction of these species into new habitats is a constant threat for those regions where the forestry industry depends on conifers, and especially on species of Pinus. To obtain information about the potential risk of establishment of these insects in Chile, we performed climate-based niche modeling using data for five North American and four Eurasian Monochamus species using a Maxent approach. The most important variables that account for current distribution of these species are total annual precipitation and annual and seasonal average temperatures, with some differences between North American and Eurasian species. Projections of potential geographic distribution in Chile show that all species could occupy at least 37% of the area between 30° and 53°S, where industrial plantations of P. radiata are concentrated. Our results indicated that Chile seems more suitable for Eurasian than for North American species.
| S-EPMC4097063 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundPandi's mushroom-tongue salamander (Bolitoglossa pandi) is one of the threatened amphibians in South America, as well as a flagship species for the Colombian conservation agenda. This species is endemic to the Andean cloud forests of the western slope of the Cordillera Oriental of Colombia, occurring only in the department of Cundinamarca within a narrow elevational range. At night, B. pandi can be seen perching on the upper side of leaves at heights ranging from ground level to 2.5 m. During the day, it can be found under leaf litter or cover objects. Few studies have provided relevant information that can help the Colombian government to formulate lines of action for the conservation of this species; consequently, its threat assessments so far have been based on very limited information.MethodsWe conducted surveys for salamanders in four municipalities of Cundinamarca, Colombia, using two approaches: visual encounter surveys (Guaduas and Villeta) and the basic sampling protocol for single-species occupancy modeling (Supatá and Venecia). Multivariate analyses were employed to explore the correlation between habitat structure and natural history traits, abundance, and detection/non-detection of B. pandi. We evaluated the B. pandi activity pattern through kernel density curves for each sampling occasion and explored the variability of salamander abundance during their activity period by performing a nested ANOVA.ResultsWe report the discovery of two new populations of B. pandi, which represent the most northwestern records known. A significant correlation between body length, body mass, and habitat structure was observed. Multivariate analyses indicated that leaf litter depth, mean temperature, percent vegetation cover, and altitude were the habitat variables that together explained 60.3% of the B. pandi abundance variability, as well as the main determinants of its optimal habitat. Bolitoglossa pandi exhibits an activity pattern characterized by two main activity peaks, in which niche time-partitioning was observed. Across the surveyed area, we found a healthy, stable, highly dense population of B. pandi (>1,300 individuals), with seasonal variability between development stages.DiscussionGiven the high habitat specificity of B. pandi, the species is highly vulnerable to local changes. Thus, we recommend that B. pandi be retained as Endangered (EN) on the IUCN Red List, based on the IUCN Criterion B, given its restricted extent of occurrence (ca. 2,500 km2) and the ongoing threats from agriculture, cattle ranching, logging, and urban development, which continue to reduce its suitable habitat.
| S-EPMC7520094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tick infestation is the most reported parasitological problem in cattle in Bhutan. In May and June 2019, we collected ticks from 240 cattle in two districts of Eastern Bhutan. Tick presence, diversity, and infestation prevalence were examined by morphological identification of 3600 live adult ticks. The relationships between cattle, geographic factors, and infestation prevalence were assessed using logistic regression analyses. Habitat suitability for the tick species identified was determined using MaxEnt. Four genera and six species of ticks were found. These were Rhipicephalus microplus (Canestrini) (70.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 68.7-71.7)), Rhipicephalus haemaphysaloides Supino (18.8% (95% CI: 17.5-20.1)), Haemaphysalis bispinosa Neumann (8.2% (95% CI: 7.3-9.1)), Haemaphysalis spinigera Neumann (2.5% (95% CI: 2-3)), Amblyomma testudinarium Koch (0.19% (95% CI: 0.07-0.4)), and a single unidentified Ixodes sp. Logistic regression indicated that the variables associated with infestation were: longitude and cattle age for R. microplus; latitude for R. haemaphysaloides; and altitude and cattle breed for H. bispinosa and H. spinigera. MaxEnt models showed land cover to be an important predictor for the occurrence of all tick species examined. These findings provide information that can be used to initiate and plan enhanced tick surveillance and subsequent prevention and control programs for ticks and tick-borne diseases in cattle in Bhutan.
| S-EPMC7931079 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimAmazon-nut (Bertholletia excelsa) is a hyperdominant and protected tree species, playing a keystone role in nutrient cycling and ecosystem service provision in Amazonia. Our main goal was to develop a robust habitat suitability model of Amazon-nut and to identify the most important predictor variables to support conservation and tree planting decisions.LocalizationAmazon region, South America.MethodsWe collected 3,325 unique Amazon-nut records and assembled >100 spatial predictor variables organized across climatic, edaphic, and geophysical categories. We compared suitability models using variables (a) selected through statistical techniques; (b) recommended by experts; and (c) integrating both approaches (a and b). We applied different spatial filtering scenarios to reduce overfitting. We additionally fine-tuned MAXENT settings to our data. The best model was selected through quantitative and qualitative assessments.ResultsPrincipal component analysis based on expert recommendations was the most appropriate method for predictor selection. Elevation, coarse soil fragments, clay, slope, and annual potential evapotranspiration were the most important predictors. Their relative contribution to the best model amounted to 75%. Filtering of the presences within a radius of 10 km displayed lowest overfitting, a satisfactory omission rate and the most symmetric distribution curve. Our findings suggest that under current environmental conditions, suitable habitat for Amazon-nut is found across 2.3 million km2, that is, 32% of the Amazon Biome.Main conclusionThe combination of statistical techniques with expert knowledge improved the quality of our suitability model. Topographic and soil variables were the most important predictors. The combination of predictor variable selection, fine-tuning of model parameters and spatial filtering was critical for the construction of a reliable habitat suitability model.
| S-EPMC6875584 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a semi-enclosed sea where the waters of the United States, Mexico and Cuba converge. Al least 21 species of cetaceans inhabit it. The only mysticete (baleen whale) is found in the northeast (U.S. waters). The distribution of the 20 species of odontocetes (toothed cetaceans) is well understood in U.S. waters, but practically unknown in Mexican and Cuban waters. In this study we used sighting data from several odontocete species to construct habitat suitability maps in order to identify geographical regions suitable for high diversity throughout the GOM.MethodsHistorical datasets of georeferenced sightings from across the GOM were used to implement the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to model the habitat suitability of each species. Five environmental predictors were used, selected for their influence over the occurrence of cetaceans: two oceanographic predictors (sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration), and three bathymetric predictors (depth, slope, and distance to 200-m isobath). A spatial approach based on the habitat suitability maps was used to identify the suitable regions.ResultsOnly 12 species were modeled, which were the ones with the minimum sample size required. The models performed well, showing good discriminatory power and slight overfitting. Overall, depth, minimum sea surface temperature, and bottom slope were the most contributing predictor in the models. High suitability areas of 10 species were located on the continental slope, and four suitable regions were identified: (1) the Mississippi Canyon and the Louisiana-Texas slope in the northern GOM, (2) the west Florida slope in the east-northeastern GOM, (3) the Rio Grande slope in the west-northwestern GOM, and (4) the Tamaulipas-Veracruz slope in the west-southwestern GOM.ConclusionsWe were able to detect four geographic regions in the GOM where a high diversity of odontocetes is expected, all located on the continental slope. Although the methodology to identify them (spatial overlap) is a very conservative approach, it is useful for conservation and management purposes. The paucity of data did not allow all species to be modeled, which highlights the importance of establishing transboundary monitoring programs.
| S-EPMC7980700 | biostudies-literature