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A Deep Learning-based approach for forecasting off-gas production and consumption in the blast furnace.

ABSTRACT: This article presents the application of a recent neural network topology known as the deep echo state network to the prediction and modeling of strongly nonlinear systems typical of the process industry. The article analyzes the results by introducing a comparison with one of the most common and efficient topologies, the long short-term memories, in order to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of a reservoir computing approach compared to one currently considered as a standard of recurrent neural network. As benchmark application, two specific processes common in the integrated steelworks are selected, with the purpose of forecasting the future energy exchanges and transformations. The procedures of training, validation and test are based on data analysis, outlier detection and reconciliation and variable selection starting from real field industrial data. The analysis of results shows the effectiveness of deep echo state networks and their strong forecasting capabilities with respect to standard recurrent methodologies both in terms of training procedures and accuracy.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00521-021-05984-x.

SUBMITTER: Dettori S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8051551 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDengue fever (DF) represents a significant health burden in Vietnam, which is forecast to worsen under climate change. The development of an early-warning system for DF has been selected as a prioritised health adaptation measure to climate change in Vietnam.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop an accurate DF prediction model in Vietnam using a wide range of meteorological factors as inputs to inform public health responses for outbreak prevention in the context of future climate change.MethodsConvolutional neural network (CNN), Transformer, long short-term memory (LSTM), and attention-enhanced LSTM (LSTM-ATT) models were compared with traditional machine learning models on weather-based DF forecasting. Models were developed using lagged DF incidence and meteorological variables (measures of temperature, humidity, rainfall, evaporation, and sunshine hours) as inputs for 20 provinces throughout Vietnam. Data from 1997-2013 were used to train models, which were then evaluated using data from 2014-2016 by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE).Results and discussionLSTM-ATT displayed the highest performance, scoring average places of 1.60 for RMSE-based ranking and 1.95 for MAE-based ranking. Notably, it was able to forecast DF incidence better than LSTM in 13 or 14 out of 20 provinces for MAE or RMSE, respectively. Moreover, LSTM-ATT was able to accurately predict DF incidence and outbreak months up to 3 months ahead, though performance dropped slightly compared to short-term forecasts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time deep learning methods have been employed for the prediction of both long- and short-term DF incidence and outbreaks in Vietnam using unique, rich meteorological features.ConclusionThis study demonstrates the usefulness of deep learning models for meteorological factor-based DF forecasting. LSTM-ATT should be further explored for mitigation strategies against DF and other climate-sensitive diseases in the coming years.

Dataset Information

A Deep Learning-based approach for forecasting off-gas production and consumption in the blast furnace.

Supplementary information

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